Qjie: What do I think?
(1) In next 2 weeks mkt will have a low point and a high point. From Monday to Thursday (Full Moon) to Friday NFP. I expect big mkt moves over 50+ SPX points.
(2) This mkt can not afford another 20 points drop to 1060/1070, If next time SPX gets 1070, it won't hold, target 1050-1059. So unless there are something really bad happens that GS and PPT can not save, this mkt will try stand above 1070 for the rest of 2009.
(3) Eco data will drive this week's mkt, On Monday it is set up for a gap up, but if we see slow movement at SPX 1080s first, go long Buy. For people who are still hold short positions, the best way is hedge with long ES tonight when future mkt opens
(4) Still remember the evil plan? Last week's low and this week's high is not coincident.
(5) This is what I wrote on last Friday before mkt close.
I am all cash now, rest of days trading from now on we need to be very carefulI think if close 1090 above on es, then monday if nothing bad hapens, 1100-1105the sell off has shaken lot of bulls and bears, es did 5% move 50 pts in 1 days, so many bears out and bulls out, new bulls can hold and add, new bears will get squeezed, this time if we close over 1100 and hold for 1+ day, new high cominganother possibility is (also 50% chance) , it is possible close 1090s and then gap down and hold today low and reverse monday
Weekend Reading
(1) stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...ID26831&cmd=show[s160751510]&disp=O
(2) www.technicalindicatorindex.com/newslett...27.09_7055475115.pdf
(3) Market will go up because of this: www.cnbc.com/id/34180711
(4) finance.yahoo.com/news/Dubai-looks-to-oi...mp;asset=&ccode=
(5) finance.yahoo.com/news/Black-Friday-stor...mp;asset=&ccode=
(6) New Margin rule for leveraged ETF's, another setup intended to squeeze the shorts
Eco Data
Monday Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET
Tuesday Redbook8:55 AM ETISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ETConstruction Spending10:00 AM ETPending Home Sales Index10:00 AM ET
Wednesday Challenger Job-Cut Report7:30 AM ETADP Employment Report8:15 AM ETEIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ET
Thursday Ben Bernanke SpeaksBarack Obama SpeaksChain Store Sales Jobless Claims8:30 AM ETISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 AM ETEIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
Friday Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET
Overall mkt Overview:
(1) $FTSE This is a reversal candle for next week, it still remain in the wedge
(2) $DAX The drop kept above the trend line, and left a reversal candle too, but the upside is also limited to the down trend line.
(3) Index-weekly Dow is still remains strongand likly will try trend line and possible break it.
(4) Index-daily Dow and SPX kept above 20ma, NDX and COMPQ gave reversal candle while Rut, which contails large amount banks show the weakest close. But Banks could start bounce back up Monday.
(5) $SPX-Daily It has the 3rd cross down on stoc, but held 20ma, I think it will try 50ema at 1070, But after a bounce up. to around 50% of this red candle.$SPX-15minHwat does this chart tell you?
(6) SPY-Daily a good set up for a gap upSPY-30minMoving Average Support and resistance
(7) $TRAN Weak but will try 4000 again before fall down
(8) $BDI Sharp pull back indicates weak mkt globally
(9) $USD Stopped at the green trend line again, maybe next time it will break it, but until then, the chances to hit 74 exists
(10) $COPPER 3.000 did hit and now it should be trade within this narrow range
(11) $GOLD This gold chart did not have Friday's candle, but anyway it hit Fib extention target 1192.
(12) $WTICStill remain atound support band 75. The up and low trendline in this chart will be both hit next week or 2.
(13) QQQQRed OXY is reversal candle and likely it will hit 44-45 again.
2009年11月30日星期一
2009年11月26日星期四
高盛在看空和做空什么
高盛在近期的报告中指出, “V形反转依然不可能”。
11月中旬公布的一份报告，显示出美国投行高盛对目前全球经济和金融形势的悲观态度。
美国经济分析局(BEA)对美国第三季度GDP增速的下调印证了市场的悲观预期。最新的修订显示，美国第三季度GDP环比增长年率只有2.8%，较初始公布的3.5%大幅下调了0.7个百分点。
3.5%的初步数据是10月末公布的。值得一提的是，10月28日，高盛当时下调了美国第三季度GDP增长预期，从预期增长3%下调到预期增长2.7%。原因是，当时公布的美国9月份耐用品订单数据弱于预期。
11月13日，高盛向美国证券交易委员会提交了一份第三季度(截至9月30日)资产管理报告。此报告是金融危机之后要求上报的。根据要求，所有的资产管理者都要把所持的最大的空头和多头持仓披露其中，类似于大额持仓披露。
根据这份报告，高盛净空头仓位排列在前十名的股票及市值分别为：纳斯达克追踪股5.5亿美元，富国银行2.89亿美元，万事达卡2.66亿美元，欧元 ETF 2.16亿美元，PNC金融公司2.02亿美元，Agnico Eagle黄金(1190.50,3.50,0.29%)采掘公司1.63亿美元，AIG 1520亿美元，巴西指数0.59亿美元，加拿大巴里克黄金公司0.37亿美元，埃克森美孚集团0.29亿美元。
从其空头持仓的情况来看，高盛实际上并没有认为金融危机已经结束。美国股市年初以来的上涨是由金融公司带动的，而高盛目前还在做空4家金融公司，这显示出高盛对金融市场的情况存在担忧。
另外，高盛做空欧元，做空两家黄金采掘公司，这显示出高盛并不看好欧元和黄金，也暗示出高盛正投注美元反弹。也许他们在预期着，由美元反弹所导致的另一波金融市场崩溃就在不远处。 高盛在市场有“空头司令”的称号。而在金融危机之前，对次贷相关金融产品的果断清仓，让高盛免于受到危机的直接冲击。2008年初，高盛曾公布报告称全年美国将陷入衰退，并准确预测美联储将会降息拯救经济。
近两年的时间快过去了，在各国政府的刺激政策之下，“复苏”成为当前市场的主流观点。这时我们又一次听到高盛悲观的呼喊声，不知道未来会是怎样。
高盛在近期的报告中指出，“经济的增长率可能会低于最近的官方数据”，并说“房屋市场再度走软”，还说“V形反转依然不可能”。
以下三个方面是高盛的看空观点。
第一，小型企业会拖累经济增长
美联储10月份公布的一项调查显示，尽管获得了美国政府的援助，但美国金融公司在第三季度继续收紧美国家庭和企业的贷款标准。这意味着银行惜贷，而企业和家庭依然难以获得信贷。而高盛则称，因信贷获得能力的差异，小型企业并不会如大企业那样充满复苏活力。虽然小型企业10月份的乐观指数升至89.1，但仍低于长期均值。同时，小型企业异常糟糕的表现，并没有完全体现在GDP的初步数据中，这也代表其会拖累GDP的增长，使得GDP最终的修正数据很可能比当前公布值低。
第二，房地产市场再次出现下滑
新近公布的10月份新屋开工数据打击了市场情绪，新屋开工下跌10.6% ，着实让前几个月的增长所带来的积极信号灰飞烟灭。高盛对于房地产市场并不看好，高盛认为，虽然成屋成交量大幅上升，但按揭贷款申请显著下降，这意味着未来几个月销售量的好势头将出现逆转；房产市场过剩的供应仍在加剧，信贷质量继续恶化。同时，新屋销售和开工数一直低于预期，数据的改善已经停滞。房价指数的分化愈发明显，自住房空置率和出租房空置率仍在上升，供应过剩的状况仍在加剧。
第三，刺激政策结束后，终端需求仍制约经济
美国经济的好转与美国政府大规模的刺激政策分不开，另外，库存周期对经济增长也有一定的推动作用。然而，随着美国刺激政策的结束，能够替代刺激措施成为带动经济增长的因素有哪些是美国未来经济所面临的核心问题？
高盛认为，当前财政刺激措施对增长的提振作用达到了顶峰，一季度美联储购买的资产正在减少，而且到2010 年中库存的拉动作用将减弱。2010 年终端需求的最大潜在来源是消费开支、商业设备投资和出口。但是，目前为止以上因素看起来都呈令人失望的“L”形走势。信贷可获得性的正常化、保持宽松的金融环境和解决经济的结构性难题很可能是导致终端需求强劲增长的重要因素，而这些因素在短期内却难以得到有效解决。
11月中旬公布的一份报告，显示出美国投行高盛对目前全球经济和金融形势的悲观态度。
美国经济分析局(BEA)对美国第三季度GDP增速的下调印证了市场的悲观预期。最新的修订显示，美国第三季度GDP环比增长年率只有2.8%，较初始公布的3.5%大幅下调了0.7个百分点。
3.5%的初步数据是10月末公布的。值得一提的是，10月28日，高盛当时下调了美国第三季度GDP增长预期，从预期增长3%下调到预期增长2.7%。原因是，当时公布的美国9月份耐用品订单数据弱于预期。
11月13日，高盛向美国证券交易委员会提交了一份第三季度(截至9月30日)资产管理报告。此报告是金融危机之后要求上报的。根据要求，所有的资产管理者都要把所持的最大的空头和多头持仓披露其中，类似于大额持仓披露。
根据这份报告，高盛净空头仓位排列在前十名的股票及市值分别为：纳斯达克追踪股5.5亿美元，富国银行2.89亿美元，万事达卡2.66亿美元，欧元 ETF 2.16亿美元，PNC金融公司2.02亿美元，Agnico Eagle黄金(1190.50,3.50,0.29%)采掘公司1.63亿美元，AIG 1520亿美元，巴西指数0.59亿美元，加拿大巴里克黄金公司0.37亿美元，埃克森美孚集团0.29亿美元。
从其空头持仓的情况来看，高盛实际上并没有认为金融危机已经结束。美国股市年初以来的上涨是由金融公司带动的，而高盛目前还在做空4家金融公司，这显示出高盛对金融市场的情况存在担忧。
另外，高盛做空欧元，做空两家黄金采掘公司，这显示出高盛并不看好欧元和黄金，也暗示出高盛正投注美元反弹。也许他们在预期着，由美元反弹所导致的另一波金融市场崩溃就在不远处。 高盛在市场有“空头司令”的称号。而在金融危机之前，对次贷相关金融产品的果断清仓，让高盛免于受到危机的直接冲击。2008年初，高盛曾公布报告称全年美国将陷入衰退，并准确预测美联储将会降息拯救经济。
近两年的时间快过去了，在各国政府的刺激政策之下，“复苏”成为当前市场的主流观点。这时我们又一次听到高盛悲观的呼喊声，不知道未来会是怎样。
高盛在近期的报告中指出，“经济的增长率可能会低于最近的官方数据”，并说“房屋市场再度走软”，还说“V形反转依然不可能”。
以下三个方面是高盛的看空观点。
第一，小型企业会拖累经济增长
美联储10月份公布的一项调查显示，尽管获得了美国政府的援助，但美国金融公司在第三季度继续收紧美国家庭和企业的贷款标准。这意味着银行惜贷，而企业和家庭依然难以获得信贷。而高盛则称，因信贷获得能力的差异，小型企业并不会如大企业那样充满复苏活力。虽然小型企业10月份的乐观指数升至89.1，但仍低于长期均值。同时，小型企业异常糟糕的表现，并没有完全体现在GDP的初步数据中，这也代表其会拖累GDP的增长，使得GDP最终的修正数据很可能比当前公布值低。
第二，房地产市场再次出现下滑
新近公布的10月份新屋开工数据打击了市场情绪，新屋开工下跌10.6% ，着实让前几个月的增长所带来的积极信号灰飞烟灭。高盛对于房地产市场并不看好，高盛认为，虽然成屋成交量大幅上升，但按揭贷款申请显著下降，这意味着未来几个月销售量的好势头将出现逆转；房产市场过剩的供应仍在加剧，信贷质量继续恶化。同时，新屋销售和开工数一直低于预期，数据的改善已经停滞。房价指数的分化愈发明显，自住房空置率和出租房空置率仍在上升，供应过剩的状况仍在加剧。
第三，刺激政策结束后，终端需求仍制约经济
美国经济的好转与美国政府大规模的刺激政策分不开，另外，库存周期对经济增长也有一定的推动作用。然而，随着美国刺激政策的结束，能够替代刺激措施成为带动经济增长的因素有哪些是美国未来经济所面临的核心问题？
高盛认为，当前财政刺激措施对增长的提振作用达到了顶峰，一季度美联储购买的资产正在减少，而且到2010 年中库存的拉动作用将减弱。2010 年终端需求的最大潜在来源是消费开支、商业设备投资和出口。但是，目前为止以上因素看起来都呈令人失望的“L”形走势。信贷可获得性的正常化、保持宽松的金融环境和解决经济的结构性难题很可能是导致终端需求强劲增长的重要因素，而这些因素在短期内却难以得到有效解决。
2009年11月25日星期三
S&P to Hit 1,200 by Year-End: Chief Investor
By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate
Stocks continued its decline on Tuesday after a report showed the economy grew less than expected in the third quarter. Eric Thorne, investment advisor at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management and Carmine Grigoli, chief investment strategist Mizuho Securities shared their market outlooks.
“We’re at a point in the year where investors don’t want to be out of the market right now,” Thorne told CNBC.
“There’s an awful lot of momentum driving this market and the good news is: the economy’s fundamentals are improving."
"But what we’re worried about is that expectations are also getting a lot higher, so a pullback of 5 to 10 percent would not surprise us and probably would not be something to worry about longer-term—it’s a good chance to add to stocks as well.”
Thorne said he is a fan of the emerging markets, especially the BRIC countries.
“Emerging markets are going to help us get to the historical growth rates that we traditionally had in the U.S., but we won’t have going forward,” he said.
In the meantime, Grigoli said he expects markets to move “substantially higher” in the next 6 to 9 months, based mostly on increased merger and acquisition activities.
“I see M&A activity doubling in the next year, leading to a mass infusion of capital into the equity market and that could fuel it; and valuations are cheap,” he said.“There are a number of positives here and so you need to remain invested, although you could see an increased volatility due to year-end tax selling.”
Grigoli said his year-end target on the S&P 500 is 1,200.
www.cnbc.com/id/34132794/site/14081545__source=yahooheadlinequotetext&par=yahoo
CNBC News Associate
Stocks continued its decline on Tuesday after a report showed the economy grew less than expected in the third quarter. Eric Thorne, investment advisor at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management and Carmine Grigoli, chief investment strategist Mizuho Securities shared their market outlooks.
“We’re at a point in the year where investors don’t want to be out of the market right now,” Thorne told CNBC.
“There’s an awful lot of momentum driving this market and the good news is: the economy’s fundamentals are improving."
"But what we’re worried about is that expectations are also getting a lot higher, so a pullback of 5 to 10 percent would not surprise us and probably would not be something to worry about longer-term—it’s a good chance to add to stocks as well.”
Thorne said he is a fan of the emerging markets, especially the BRIC countries.
“Emerging markets are going to help us get to the historical growth rates that we traditionally had in the U.S., but we won’t have going forward,” he said.
In the meantime, Grigoli said he expects markets to move “substantially higher” in the next 6 to 9 months, based mostly on increased merger and acquisition activities.
“I see M&A activity doubling in the next year, leading to a mass infusion of capital into the equity market and that could fuel it; and valuations are cheap,” he said.“There are a number of positives here and so you need to remain invested, although you could see an increased volatility due to year-end tax selling.”
Grigoli said his year-end target on the S&P 500 is 1,200.
www.cnbc.com/id/34132794/site/14081545__source=yahooheadlinequotetext&par=yahoo
2009年11月24日星期二
China agriculture stock suggestion : AgFeed Industries, Inc. (FEED)
1. Harry Boxer suggestion on FEED on Nov.24th.09 http://www.thetechtrader.com/chartofday/
Harry Boxer has more than 40 years of Wall Street investment and technical analysis experience, including eight years on Wall Street as chief technical analyst with three brokerage firms. Former chief technical analyst and columnist for AmericaInvest.com and winner of the 1995 & 1996 worldwide Internet stock-market trading contest, "The Technical Analysis Challenge," Harry is widely syndicated and a featured guest on many financial programs and sites.
Agfeed Industries Inc. (FEED) has had a spectacular surge the last couple of sessions on the biggest volume since back in May when the stock was running. This could be a breakout today although it didn’t close well, still 8.9 million shares traded. The stock closed right at the declining tops line. Any further follow through here and we could get a substantial move on it, with a target up around the 7 1/2 area for starters and beyond that something up around the 9–10 range.
2. http://www.inflation.us/stockupdates.html
AgFeed Industries (FEED) is currently $4.23 down 8% since we suggested it on November 3rd at $4.60. FEED announced today that revenues for the 3Q were down 9% from the prior year to $45.12 million and net income was down 65% from the prior year to $2.9 million. FEED's balance sheet strengthened from a year ago with their cash position up 135% to $36.5 million and their shareholder equity up 32% to $142.8 million. FEED is currently positioning themselves for the long-term agriculture boom we expect to take place for decades to come in China.
3. November 3rd, 2009: AgFeed Industries, Inc. (FEED)Current Price: $4.60http://www.agfeedinc.com/
Our last China agriculture stock suggestion Zhongpin (HOGS) gained 89% from our March 31st profile at $8.88 to a high on October 21st of $16.79.
Our new agriculture stock suggestion is AgFeed Industries, Inc., listed on the NASDAQ Global Market under stock symbol FEED. FEED is the largest commercial hog producer and the largest premix feed company in China. Founded in 1995, they currently have over 1,900 employees and a highly profitable business.
FEED, through its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of fodder and blended feed for use in the domestic animal husbandry markets in the People's Republic of China. The company also involves in raising, breeding, and selling hogs for use in China's pork production and hog breeding markets. Its products primarily include additive premix fodder for use in all stages of a pig's life, and blended feeds for the infant stage of a pig's life. In addition, FEED produces three brands of premixed chicken feed. It offers its products primarily to distributors and large scale pig farms.
With over 600 million hogs produced each year, compared to 100 million in the U.S., China represents more than 50% of the world's annual hog production as well as the world's largest and most profitable pork consumer market. FEED has a strategic platform for accessing China's vast feed and hog raising industries.
FEED owns and operates 30 commercial hog farms and 5 premix feed plants. FEED's hog farms and feed plants are strategically located in south China where some of the most profitable feed and hog markets are located. FEED's hog sales for the first six months of 2009 totaled 316,000 hogs, with 183,000 sold in the second quarter. This puts them in line to meet their goal of 650,000 hogs produced for 2009. FEED anticipates producing approximately 2.5 million hogs from now through 2011!
FEED currently benefits from an income tax free environment (hog production), strong synergies between their feed and hog raising segments, a strong balance sheet and capital strength as a public company.
FEED has amazing fundamentals that make it very attractive at the current levels. FEED has grown its total revenues from about $8.6 million in 2006 to about $36.1 million in 2007 to over $143.6 million in 2008 and $167.8 million during the most recent twelve months! FEED has about $30.9 million in cash with only $5.4 million in debt and is profitable with a trailing P/E ratio of 10.
The pre-mix feed market in which FEED operates is an approximately $1.6 billion segment of China's $40 billion per year animal feed market, according to the China Feed Industry Association. China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest animal feed market reaching $50 billion in annual sales by 2010!
In our opinion, FEED is significantly undervalued with tremendous long-term upside potential.
4. November 30, 2009 /M2 PRESSWIRE/ BUYINS.NET, www.buyins.net, announced today that these select companies have been removed from the NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE naked short threshold lists. AgFeed Industries (NASDAQ: FEED) and Linear Gold Corp (OTC: LGCFF). For a complete list of companies on the naked short lists please visit our web site. To find the SqueezeTrigger Price before a short squeeze starts in any stock, go to http://www.buyins.net/ .
AgFeed Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FEED), through its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of fodder and blended feed for use in the domestic animal husbandry markets primarily in the Peoplea™s Republic of China. The company also involves in raising, breeding, and selling hogs for use in Chinaa™s pork production and hog breeding markets. Its products primarily include additive premix fodder for use in all stages of a piga™s life, and blended feeds. The company offers its products primarily to distributors and large scale pig farms. As of December 31, 2008, the company had 1 breeder farm and 29 meat hog producing farms in the Jiangxi, Shanghai, Hainan, Guangxi, and Fujian provinces. It has a joint venture agreement with M2 P2, Llc. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanchang City, the Peoplea™s Republic of China. There is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of FEED.
5. Dec.7th.09 Before the stock open.
Feed should be up huge today. Finally, Feed goes to Uptrend.
Last Friday range $4.86-$5.18. Closed at $5.04. Opened at $5.00.
Feed $5.00 Feb.2010 Open Interest is 78,111 contracts.
78,111 contracts= 78111 x 100 = 78111000 shares
1 share = $0.80, 78111000 shares x $0.80= $6248880.00
Feed Daily chart Up strongly.
Feed 60minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 30minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 15 minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 10 minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 5 minutes chart Up strongly.
Harry Boxer has more than 40 years of Wall Street investment and technical analysis experience, including eight years on Wall Street as chief technical analyst with three brokerage firms. Former chief technical analyst and columnist for AmericaInvest.com and winner of the 1995 & 1996 worldwide Internet stock-market trading contest, "The Technical Analysis Challenge," Harry is widely syndicated and a featured guest on many financial programs and sites.
Agfeed Industries Inc. (FEED) has had a spectacular surge the last couple of sessions on the biggest volume since back in May when the stock was running. This could be a breakout today although it didn’t close well, still 8.9 million shares traded. The stock closed right at the declining tops line. Any further follow through here and we could get a substantial move on it, with a target up around the 7 1/2 area for starters and beyond that something up around the 9–10 range.
2. http://www.inflation.us/stockupdates.html
AgFeed Industries (FEED) is currently $4.23 down 8% since we suggested it on November 3rd at $4.60. FEED announced today that revenues for the 3Q were down 9% from the prior year to $45.12 million and net income was down 65% from the prior year to $2.9 million. FEED's balance sheet strengthened from a year ago with their cash position up 135% to $36.5 million and their shareholder equity up 32% to $142.8 million. FEED is currently positioning themselves for the long-term agriculture boom we expect to take place for decades to come in China.
3. November 3rd, 2009: AgFeed Industries, Inc. (FEED)Current Price: $4.60http://www.agfeedinc.com/
Our last China agriculture stock suggestion Zhongpin (HOGS) gained 89% from our March 31st profile at $8.88 to a high on October 21st of $16.79.
Our new agriculture stock suggestion is AgFeed Industries, Inc., listed on the NASDAQ Global Market under stock symbol FEED. FEED is the largest commercial hog producer and the largest premix feed company in China. Founded in 1995, they currently have over 1,900 employees and a highly profitable business.
FEED, through its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of fodder and blended feed for use in the domestic animal husbandry markets in the People's Republic of China. The company also involves in raising, breeding, and selling hogs for use in China's pork production and hog breeding markets. Its products primarily include additive premix fodder for use in all stages of a pig's life, and blended feeds for the infant stage of a pig's life. In addition, FEED produces three brands of premixed chicken feed. It offers its products primarily to distributors and large scale pig farms.
With over 600 million hogs produced each year, compared to 100 million in the U.S., China represents more than 50% of the world's annual hog production as well as the world's largest and most profitable pork consumer market. FEED has a strategic platform for accessing China's vast feed and hog raising industries.
FEED owns and operates 30 commercial hog farms and 5 premix feed plants. FEED's hog farms and feed plants are strategically located in south China where some of the most profitable feed and hog markets are located. FEED's hog sales for the first six months of 2009 totaled 316,000 hogs, with 183,000 sold in the second quarter. This puts them in line to meet their goal of 650,000 hogs produced for 2009. FEED anticipates producing approximately 2.5 million hogs from now through 2011!
FEED currently benefits from an income tax free environment (hog production), strong synergies between their feed and hog raising segments, a strong balance sheet and capital strength as a public company.
FEED has amazing fundamentals that make it very attractive at the current levels. FEED has grown its total revenues from about $8.6 million in 2006 to about $36.1 million in 2007 to over $143.6 million in 2008 and $167.8 million during the most recent twelve months! FEED has about $30.9 million in cash with only $5.4 million in debt and is profitable with a trailing P/E ratio of 10.
The pre-mix feed market in which FEED operates is an approximately $1.6 billion segment of China's $40 billion per year animal feed market, according to the China Feed Industry Association. China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest animal feed market reaching $50 billion in annual sales by 2010!
In our opinion, FEED is significantly undervalued with tremendous long-term upside potential.
4. November 30, 2009 /M2 PRESSWIRE/ BUYINS.NET, www.buyins.net, announced today that these select companies have been removed from the NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE naked short threshold lists. AgFeed Industries (NASDAQ: FEED) and Linear Gold Corp (OTC: LGCFF). For a complete list of companies on the naked short lists please visit our web site. To find the SqueezeTrigger Price before a short squeeze starts in any stock, go to http://www.buyins.net/ .
AgFeed Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FEED), through its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of fodder and blended feed for use in the domestic animal husbandry markets primarily in the Peoplea™s Republic of China. The company also involves in raising, breeding, and selling hogs for use in Chinaa™s pork production and hog breeding markets. Its products primarily include additive premix fodder for use in all stages of a piga™s life, and blended feeds. The company offers its products primarily to distributors and large scale pig farms. As of December 31, 2008, the company had 1 breeder farm and 29 meat hog producing farms in the Jiangxi, Shanghai, Hainan, Guangxi, and Fujian provinces. It has a joint venture agreement with M2 P2, Llc. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanchang City, the Peoplea™s Republic of China. There is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of FEED.
5. Dec.7th.09 Before the stock open.
Feed should be up huge today. Finally, Feed goes to Uptrend.
Last Friday range $4.86-$5.18. Closed at $5.04. Opened at $5.00.
Feed $5.00 Feb.2010 Open Interest is 78,111 contracts.
78,111 contracts= 78111 x 100 = 78111000 shares
1 share = $0.80, 78111000 shares x $0.80= $6248880.00
Feed Daily chart Up strongly.
Feed 60minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 30minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 15 minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 10 minutes chart Up strongly.
Feed 5 minutes chart Up strongly.
2009年11月20日星期五
Market Watch on Nov. 20th.09
1. Today is OE day. I feel the market is going to down and close with red. And Next Monday will be red too. Next Tuesday is hard to say since we will have GDP report again. Next Wednesday might be close with green since next Thursday is Thanksgiving day. And black Friday should be close with green.
2. If today the market green closes, I have to exist my long positions with lose. Do not have any hope on Monday to be closed green too.
3. [QJ]
3.1 I started 200 share QID 21.50, yeah, not too good entry, stop 21.
2. If today the market green closes, I have to exist my long positions with lose. Do not have any hope on Monday to be closed green too.
3. [QJ]
3.1 I started 200 share QID 21.50, yeah, not too good entry, stop 21.
2009年11月17日星期二
Market Summary on Nov.17th.2009
1. [QJ] 12:40pm ok, no doubt if mkt goes up above 1107, it will head higher to 1116-1125 target, this break UP, no doubt will lead by commodities, OIL, Gold, Copper, silver. etcThe only problem is financials, today's news on fed lending window is not good news for financials, fed cut discount window policy to 29 days from 90 daysnow any loan banks get from fed in exchange for their junk has to be returned in 1 monththis sector is going to be the first sector to short down once this mad bull run stopsI want short FAS and FAS Jan Puts 95P to 100P, once this mkt reaches 111x above.
2. [QJ] 1:30pm I added short FAS stock 78.46 200 shares to start with, I will add if mkt goes up, keep some short position on weakest sector, just in case.
3. [WP]1:30pm Market consolidate after yesterday huge advance. SPX amid 1121 as next target this week.
2. [QJ] 1:30pm I added short FAS stock 78.46 200 shares to start with, I will add if mkt goes up, keep some short position on weakest sector, just in case.
3. [WP]1:30pm Market consolidate after yesterday huge advance. SPX amid 1121 as next target this week.
2009年11月16日星期一
Market Summary on Nov.16th.2009
1. At 2:00pm, QJ is buying small position SDS 35.53, will add 3 more times if she sees 1115 ES, 1120ES and 1125ES.
2. WP sold his PQ $6.56。只留下一些 Option 和 中期，长期多仓。PQ 仍有较大的获利空间，但波动较大。 因此卖掉。 更专注在 CALL Option 操作上。
3.
2. WP sold his PQ $6.56。只留下一些 Option 和 中期，长期多仓。PQ 仍有较大的获利空间，但波动较大。 因此卖掉。 更专注在 CALL Option 操作上。
3.
2009年11月15日星期日
TA Tips
1.[QJ] What does Probing Bar really mean?
Here are a few Probing bars on SPY and XLF this week, From ThinOrSwim, between 4PM to 4:15PM on Oct.30th.09.
The general theory is probe bar are closing trades late settlement from earlier in the day. Some people believe that is the Mkt MM's sunc up signals because SPY P-Bar works most of the time and XLF P-Bars works everytime for next day over the past months.
So what should we believe? I think since it works, we will assume it works until one day it is no longer work.The most reasonable thought that I can give is: for example yesterday's XLF hit 14.44, and today P-Bar again point to 14.44, if this is settled transections, then we know there are mktMM got in at 14.44 and Monday they might want pull XLF to 14.44 so those transections can get out.
2. Arms Index (TRIN)
Richard Arms developed the TRIN, or Arms index, as a contrarian indicator to detect overbought and oversold levels in the market. Because of its calculation method, the TRIN has an inverse relationship with the market. Generally, a rising TRIN is bearish and a falling TRIN is bullish. Sometimes you will see the scale of the TRIN inverted to reflect this inverse relationship.
Calculation
The TRIN is the advance/decline ratio divided by the advance volume/decline volume ratio:
A number of TRIN interpretations have evolved over the years. Richard Arms, the originator, uses the TRIN to detect extreme conditions in the market. He considers the market to be overbought when the 10-day moving average of the TRIN declines below .8 and oversold when it moves above 1.2. Other interpretations seek to use the direction and absolute level of the TRIN to determine bullish and bearish scenarios. In the momentum-driven markets, the TRIN can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods of time.
3. TICK: Each individual move from one stock trade to another. An UP-TICK means the price moved up on the last trade and a DOWN-TICK means it moved down. If there is no change from the last trade, the TICK is considered neutral. The TICK statistic on the NYSE is the net of all UP-TICKs minus all DOWN-TICKs at a given point during the day. If 1000 stocks advanced on their last trade or TICK, 500 declined and 200 were unchanged, the TICK would be +500 (1000 minus 500 equals +500). The closing TICK is based on the last trade of the day. TICK statistics are available for the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX.
4. TA on demand and supply indicator is the best one to use with volume.
Momentum indicator is based on price and volume. It's a good leading indicator. It shows good divergence.
MACD is a pretty good demand and supply indicator.
RSI seems a good leading indictor too.
5. Charts
Stock charts:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.bigcharts.com/
Future charts:
http://www.quote.com/
Here are a few Probing bars on SPY and XLF this week, From ThinOrSwim, between 4PM to 4:15PM on Oct.30th.09.
The general theory is probe bar are closing trades late settlement from earlier in the day. Some people believe that is the Mkt MM's sunc up signals because SPY P-Bar works most of the time and XLF P-Bars works everytime for next day over the past months.
So what should we believe? I think since it works, we will assume it works until one day it is no longer work.The most reasonable thought that I can give is: for example yesterday's XLF hit 14.44, and today P-Bar again point to 14.44, if this is settled transections, then we know there are mktMM got in at 14.44 and Monday they might want pull XLF to 14.44 so those transections can get out.
2. Arms Index (TRIN)
Richard Arms developed the TRIN, or Arms index, as a contrarian indicator to detect overbought and oversold levels in the market. Because of its calculation method, the TRIN has an inverse relationship with the market. Generally, a rising TRIN is bearish and a falling TRIN is bullish. Sometimes you will see the scale of the TRIN inverted to reflect this inverse relationship.
Calculation
The TRIN is the advance/decline ratio divided by the advance volume/decline volume ratio:
A number of TRIN interpretations have evolved over the years. Richard Arms, the originator, uses the TRIN to detect extreme conditions in the market. He considers the market to be overbought when the 10-day moving average of the TRIN declines below .8 and oversold when it moves above 1.2. Other interpretations seek to use the direction and absolute level of the TRIN to determine bullish and bearish scenarios. In the momentum-driven markets, the TRIN can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods of time.
3. TICK: Each individual move from one stock trade to another. An UP-TICK means the price moved up on the last trade and a DOWN-TICK means it moved down. If there is no change from the last trade, the TICK is considered neutral. The TICK statistic on the NYSE is the net of all UP-TICKs minus all DOWN-TICKs at a given point during the day. If 1000 stocks advanced on their last trade or TICK, 500 declined and 200 were unchanged, the TICK would be +500 (1000 minus 500 equals +500). The closing TICK is based on the last trade of the day. TICK statistics are available for the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX.
4. TA on demand and supply indicator is the best one to use with volume.
Momentum indicator is based on price and volume. It's a good leading indicator. It shows good divergence.
MACD is a pretty good demand and supply indicator.
RSI seems a good leading indictor too.
5. Charts
Stock charts:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.bigcharts.com/
Future charts:
http://www.quote.com/
[QJ] U.S Stock/ETF Watch List on Nov.15th.09
From OPX:
Bullish Flow
Smith International (SII), a Houston based oil and gas driller, finished the day up 39 cents to $29.44 and sentiment in the options market seemed decidedly bullish. Total call volume hit 6210 contracts (compared to about 700 puts). In addition, buyers were dominating the action, as data from WhatsTrading.com indicate that 85 percent of the call activity traded ask-side of the bid-ask spread. December 31 calls were the most actives and included several lots hitting ask-side for 95 cents per contract. By the end of the day, 5,208 had traded, compared to 353 contracts of open interest. Bullish trading also surfaced in Lowe's (LOW), QLogic (QLGC), and Toll Brothers (TOL).
Bearish Flow
Interestingly, while SII saw bullish order flow Friday, Hercules Offshore (HERO), another Houston-based oil and gas company, saw bearish trading. Shares finished the day up 28 cents to $5.56 and the focus was on April puts at the $5 strike. 4842 contracts traded and, with 57 percent of the volume trading ask-side and 1661 contracts of open interest, it looks like put buyers were opening new positions and bracing for a possible move below $5 by the April expiration. Bearish activity also picked up in Quicksilver (KWK), Ciena (CIEN), and Freightcar (RAIL).
Index Trading
The PHLX Bank Sector Index (.BKX) didn't participate in Friday's advance. The index, which tracks the share price action of two dozen banks, fell .16 to 43.14. Meanwhile, options volume in the bank index hit 8X the average daily with 7075 calls and only 1 put traded. January 2010 calls at the 47.5 line were the most actives and it appears that premium sellers were collecting $1.10 per contract and opening new positions -- possibly betting that the index won't rally to 47.5, or 10.1 percent, by the January options expiration (63 days).
ETF Trading
PowerShares US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) calls saw heavy trading Friday. The fund jumped to $22.80 per share Thursday as the buck bounced against other currencies, but then call sellers surfaced in UUP early Friday after the dollar failed to build on the gains. Heavy trading continued throughout the session. At the closing bell, UUP was down 48 cents to $22.32 and 158,000 calls had traded, compared to about 6200 puts. Call volume outpaced put activity by a ratio of more than 25-to-1.
Bullish Flow
Smith International (SII), a Houston based oil and gas driller, finished the day up 39 cents to $29.44 and sentiment in the options market seemed decidedly bullish. Total call volume hit 6210 contracts (compared to about 700 puts). In addition, buyers were dominating the action, as data from WhatsTrading.com indicate that 85 percent of the call activity traded ask-side of the bid-ask spread. December 31 calls were the most actives and included several lots hitting ask-side for 95 cents per contract. By the end of the day, 5,208 had traded, compared to 353 contracts of open interest. Bullish trading also surfaced in Lowe's (LOW), QLogic (QLGC), and Toll Brothers (TOL).
Bearish Flow
Interestingly, while SII saw bullish order flow Friday, Hercules Offshore (HERO), another Houston-based oil and gas company, saw bearish trading. Shares finished the day up 28 cents to $5.56 and the focus was on April puts at the $5 strike. 4842 contracts traded and, with 57 percent of the volume trading ask-side and 1661 contracts of open interest, it looks like put buyers were opening new positions and bracing for a possible move below $5 by the April expiration. Bearish activity also picked up in Quicksilver (KWK), Ciena (CIEN), and Freightcar (RAIL).
Index Trading
The PHLX Bank Sector Index (.BKX) didn't participate in Friday's advance. The index, which tracks the share price action of two dozen banks, fell .16 to 43.14. Meanwhile, options volume in the bank index hit 8X the average daily with 7075 calls and only 1 put traded. January 2010 calls at the 47.5 line were the most actives and it appears that premium sellers were collecting $1.10 per contract and opening new positions -- possibly betting that the index won't rally to 47.5, or 10.1 percent, by the January options expiration (63 days).
ETF Trading
PowerShares US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) calls saw heavy trading Friday. The fund jumped to $22.80 per share Thursday as the buck bounced against other currencies, but then call sellers surfaced in UUP early Friday after the dollar failed to build on the gains. Heavy trading continued throughout the session. At the closing bell, UUP was down 48 cents to $22.32 and 158,000 calls had traded, compared to about 6200 puts. Call volume outpaced put activity by a ratio of more than 25-to-1.
[QJ] Sector View and Charts
Simple Stock Scan:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan
My Public Chart List for Trading Systemshttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3284338
Future real time quotes:http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/
(1) Group1: Trading Systems and Trading ETFs
(a) MA Cross System For ETFs
SPY-60min Main system for swing trade: Trade on (1) MA cross, (2) TRIX and Full STO crosses (3) MACD cross 0.0 (4) Slow STO cross up down 80 and 20.
SPY-30min Array of moving averages, use these MA to find out support and resistance
SPY-15min DT system use 2 MA line cross
SPY-5min DT system MA cross and 50ema
DDM-60min, DXD-60min, QQQQ-60min, QID-60min, QLD-60min,
SPY-60min-STO, SSO-60min, SDS-60min, UPRO, SPXU,
TNA-60min, TWM-60min, TZA-60min,
EEV-60min,
XLF-60min, SKF-60min, SRS-60min, FAS-60min, FAZ-60min, SKF-60min, IYR-60min,
USO-60min, DTO-60min, ERX-60min, ERY-60min, XLE-60min,
UUP-60min, GDX-60min, GLD-60min,
SPX-30min, SKF-15min, SDS-15min, SRS-15min, SPY-15min,
SPX-5min, FAS-5min,
(b) Renko Systems for ETFs
SRS-Daily-Renko,
SKF-Daily-Renko,
SKF-60min-Renko
SPX-15min-Renko,
UYG-5min-Renko
FAZ-5min-Renko,
FAS-5min-Renko
(2) Group2: Mkt Indicators
$SPX-Monthly, $SPX-W, SPX-Weekly-STO-Cross, $SPXA50R-W, $INDU-W, $DOWA50R-W, $COMPQ-W, $RUT-W, $WTIC-W,
All-Index-Daily , BRK/B, $SPX, $SPX2, $OEX, SPX-Daily-STO-Cross, $INDU, $COMPQ, $RUTAll-Index-60min, $INDU-60min, $SPX-60min, $COMPQ-60min, $NDX-60min, $RUT-60min,
$VIX, $TICK, $BPCOMPQ, $BPSPX, $BPNYA, $BPENER, $BPFINA, $NYMO, $NYSI, $NYSI-W, $BDI, $BKX
$FTSE, $DAX, $BSE, $SSEC-W, $SSEC, $HSI, XIU.TO, $TSE
(3) Group 3: Important ETFs
QQQQ, XLF, USO, XLE, OIH, XLI, XLY, DBA, DBC, XLB, XHB, USD, UUP, FXE, $TNX, TLT/TBT, XHB, $COPPER, $GOLD, SDS
EEM, EWA, EWC, EWD, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWK, EWL, EWM, EWO, EWP, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWX, EWY, EWZ, EZA, FXI, CAF
(4) Group4: $INDU and Dow30
$INDU, AA, AXP, BA, BAC, TRV, CAT, CVX, DD, DIS, CSCO, GM, HD, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KFT, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, T, UTX, VZ, WMT, XOM
(5) Group5: Sector Leaders
Financials and Reit: GS, JPM, WFC, BAC, STI, C, COF, CME, ICE, MA, V, IYR/SRS, SPG
Tech: AAPL, AMZN, PCLN, GOOG, QCOM, PALM, BIDU, RIMM, ORCL, ISRG, VMW, SOHU, NFLX, NTES, CYOU
Energy: XOM, CVX, COP, PTR, SGR
Metal: GLD, GDX, GOLD, ABX, AUY, SLV, BVN, RTP, FCX, PCU, TCK, NEM, CDE, HL
Agriculture: POT, MOS, MON, MOO, AGU
Solar: STP, YGE
Steel: X, NUE, CLF, AKS, SID
Shipping: GNK, DSX, DRYS, EXM, NM
Coal: MEE, JRCC, KOL, YZC
Flu stocks: SVA,
My Public Chart List for Trading Systemshttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3284338
Future real time quotes:http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/
(1) Group1: Trading Systems and Trading ETFs
(a) MA Cross System For ETFs
SPY-60min Main system for swing trade: Trade on (1) MA cross, (2) TRIX and Full STO crosses (3) MACD cross 0.0 (4) Slow STO cross up down 80 and 20.
SPY-30min Array of moving averages, use these MA to find out support and resistance
SPY-15min DT system use 2 MA line cross
SPY-5min DT system MA cross and 50ema
DDM-60min, DXD-60min, QQQQ-60min, QID-60min, QLD-60min,
SPY-60min-STO, SSO-60min, SDS-60min, UPRO, SPXU,
TNA-60min, TWM-60min, TZA-60min,
EEV-60min,
XLF-60min, SKF-60min, SRS-60min, FAS-60min, FAZ-60min, SKF-60min, IYR-60min,
USO-60min, DTO-60min, ERX-60min, ERY-60min, XLE-60min,
UUP-60min, GDX-60min, GLD-60min,
SPX-30min, SKF-15min, SDS-15min, SRS-15min, SPY-15min,
SPX-5min, FAS-5min,
(b) Renko Systems for ETFs
SRS-Daily-Renko,
SKF-Daily-Renko,
SKF-60min-Renko
SPX-15min-Renko,
UYG-5min-Renko
FAZ-5min-Renko,
FAS-5min-Renko
(2) Group2: Mkt Indicators
$SPX-Monthly, $SPX-W, SPX-Weekly-STO-Cross, $SPXA50R-W, $INDU-W, $DOWA50R-W, $COMPQ-W, $RUT-W, $WTIC-W,
All-Index-Daily , BRK/B, $SPX, $SPX2, $OEX, SPX-Daily-STO-Cross, $INDU, $COMPQ, $RUTAll-Index-60min, $INDU-60min, $SPX-60min, $COMPQ-60min, $NDX-60min, $RUT-60min,
$VIX, $TICK, $BPCOMPQ, $BPSPX, $BPNYA, $BPENER, $BPFINA, $NYMO, $NYSI, $NYSI-W, $BDI, $BKX
$FTSE, $DAX, $BSE, $SSEC-W, $SSEC, $HSI, XIU.TO, $TSE
(3) Group 3: Important ETFs
QQQQ, XLF, USO, XLE, OIH, XLI, XLY, DBA, DBC, XLB, XHB, USD, UUP, FXE, $TNX, TLT/TBT, XHB, $COPPER, $GOLD, SDS
EEM, EWA, EWC, EWD, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWK, EWL, EWM, EWO, EWP, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWX, EWY, EWZ, EZA, FXI, CAF
(4) Group4: $INDU and Dow30
$INDU, AA, AXP, BA, BAC, TRV, CAT, CVX, DD, DIS, CSCO, GM, HD, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KFT, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, T, UTX, VZ, WMT, XOM
(5) Group5: Sector Leaders
Financials and Reit: GS, JPM, WFC, BAC, STI, C, COF, CME, ICE, MA, V, IYR/SRS, SPG
Tech: AAPL, AMZN, PCLN, GOOG, QCOM, PALM, BIDU, RIMM, ORCL, ISRG, VMW, SOHU, NFLX, NTES, CYOU
Energy: XOM, CVX, COP, PTR, SGR
Metal: GLD, GDX, GOLD, ABX, AUY, SLV, BVN, RTP, FCX, PCU, TCK, NEM, CDE, HL
Agriculture: POT, MOS, MON, MOO, AGU
Solar: STP, YGE
Steel: X, NUE, CLF, AKS, SID
Shipping: GNK, DSX, DRYS, EXM, NM
Coal: MEE, JRCC, KOL, YZC
Flu stocks: SVA,
2009年11月14日星期六
Market Summary on Nov.13th.2009
[WP] Predicted before the market:
SPX Pivot levels are:
R3 1114.91
R2 1108.44
R1 1097.84
PIVOT 1091.37
S1 1080.77
S2 1074.3
S3 1063.7
1. Data results of today.
1.1 华德迪士尼 (DIS: 报价) 盘前股价上扬1.4%，这家媒体巨擘公布最近一季净利增长18%，优於预期，因运动频道ESPN与ABC制作电视节目收视率佳。
1.2 美国9月贸易逆差大幅扩增美国9月贸易逆差扩大18.2%，为365亿美元，逊於华尔街预期的320亿美元赤字，为1999年2月以来最大扩增幅度。贸易收支数据有利美元下跌。 去年同期逆差307亿美元。
Due to 美元下跌, most of engey stocks up except PQ and VAL. Not sure why PQ is so weak today.
石油服务类股跌破昨日低点後反弹(OIH: 报价) 121.61 0.23 (0.19%) : 石油服务类股跌破昨日低点120.69，来到119.85的低点後反弹，50日简单均线近119.82，50日移动均线为118.95。
1.3 欧洲经济数据显示欧元区第三季终於摆脱衰退，但是成长幅度比预期弱，欧元区第三季经济成长0.4%。
1.4 期货铜上涨0.5%，美林调高铜价目标，因中国以外的全球需求可能增强。原油期货盘前上涨39美分，每桶为77.33美元。
1.5 Bad News: 美國11月消費者信心指數下降密西根大學與路透社週五公佈美國11月上旬的消費者信心指數意外下滑，從10月份的70.6下降至66.0。今年9月份美國消費者信心指數一度上升至73.5，但隨後兩個月連續下滑。
The market did not fail due to a bad news. It means the market would like to go up and ignored the bad news. If MM wants to the market goes down, they will 不断强调这个坏消息。
1.6 J.C. Penney第三财季获利下降78%J.C. Penney (JCP: 报价) 第三财季获利下降78%至2700万美元，每股盈余11美分。去年同期的1.24亿美元，每股盈余56美分。季度营收下降3.2%，至41.8亿美元。扣除养老金支出後，该公司当季每股盈余30美分。FactSet调查的分析师平均预期该公司当季每股盈余12美分。J.C. Penney还将全年每股盈利预期从先前的至多90美分上调至93美分-1.08美元。J.C. Penney预计第四财季每股盈余70-85美分。分析师平均预期该公司第四季每股盈余82美分，全年每股盈余1.05美元。
Due to the good news from JCP, the retail stocks up a lot today.
2. [WP] 盘中评论
2.1 大盘稳健上涨， SPX 在 VWAP 之上，Buyer in control now . SPX 在 Pivot Point 之上， Bullish. 关键是看收盘 是否可保持在 1080 以上。
2.2 止损有一个技巧，在开盘 15 分钟内不设止损。 因为不稳定，很容易被涮。
2.3 USO DEC CALL 可以留到下周。
3. 太阳能类股领涨。YGE has a good earning and up a lot. The only solar in possible long list is YGE and STP, YGE posted nice earning. I need get rid of my JASO shares without making money.
4. [QJ] Today again Bears are unable to press ES down below 1085 later the day they again have to cover, and don't want to hold over the weekend. so that leaves some unfinished business to upside,The key is only nerrowed in 3 factors: (1) DXY (2) VIX (3) XLF how these 3 factors will do will just decide where mkt goes, do see sector rotation these days, maybe today is XLF rotate down, the bad thing is if we stand on wrong sector, we will loss money, the safest way is wait for them to all rotated out then it will be safe to short,.going long here 1090+ SPX? no, I don't want to do that, because I do not see it can go beyond 1112, and there are many diverdence, the most one is financials, mkt new high without financials that is a largest divergence.
2009年11月12日星期四
Market Summary on Nov.12th.2009
1. [WP]
SPX Pivot levels are:
R3 1116.21
R2 1110.79
R1 1104.65
PIVOT 1099.23
S1 1093.09
S2 1087.67
S3 1081.53
2. Use this map check which sector and whick stocks are strong or weak finviz.com/map3d.ashx for the daily trading.
3. This morning the job number is good but the market is not running up. This is a sign of the market is going to down today. SPX has been run up for seven days. It's the time to go down and do some correction. If you have a stock want to do a day trading, you have to exit long in the early morning and buy back later.
4. [1:00pm] WP opinions:
今天盘后如 SPX 仍在 1088 之上，则可以去买一些 SPY DEC Call. 如果破了等明天。 周五如 SPX 收在 1080 之上，则平安无事。可以去加仓 SPY DEC call. 或者去买 AAPL, AMZN Dec CALL. SPY 的 CALL 在盘后仍可交易 15 分钟。 POT 非常有弹性，可以去买点 DEC CALL.
今天是买低的好时机。 去买点 USO Dec $40 CALL. 一周内就会有很多利润。石油在 $76.5 有很强的支撑。 除非大盘夸台，否则这一支撑很难破。 大盘现在是在修复过去两周 75 点 （ From 1030 to 1105 ) 的涨幅所带来的指标迟后和上涨量不足的问题。 别误以为这是空头的机会。 明天再横盘一天，这些问题都会解决。 下周一很可能又是大涨的日子。 千万不要做空大盘。
5. [1:30pm]OJ thinks if Oil closes it above 77, this mkt is not ready to go down below 1085 support. However, today at 2:30PM OIL did not close above 77, QJ existed her long positions and only hold UUP.
6. [WP] Nov.12th.2009 盘前汇报
个股跟踪：
短期：
1. PQ 目前持有 STOP raise to 6. 33 Target $8 PQ hold 在 6.46 以上就可以加仓。
2. CAAS 仍有 50% 持股 STOP raise to $14.35 Target: new high.
中期持股： AA, INTC， CREE, PCU， GLD, ILF， BIK
当日冲： BGU, EDC，TNA， ERX， DDM, SSO, FAS
SPX Pivot levels are:
R3 1116.21
R2 1110.79
R1 1104.65
PIVOT 1099.23
S1 1093.09
S2 1087.67
S3 1081.53
2. Use this map check which sector and whick stocks are strong or weak finviz.com/map3d.ashx for the daily trading.
3. This morning the job number is good but the market is not running up. This is a sign of the market is going to down today. SPX has been run up for seven days. It's the time to go down and do some correction. If you have a stock want to do a day trading, you have to exit long in the early morning and buy back later.
4. [1:00pm] WP opinions:
今天盘后如 SPX 仍在 1088 之上，则可以去买一些 SPY DEC Call. 如果破了等明天。 周五如 SPX 收在 1080 之上，则平安无事。可以去加仓 SPY DEC call. 或者去买 AAPL, AMZN Dec CALL. SPY 的 CALL 在盘后仍可交易 15 分钟。 POT 非常有弹性，可以去买点 DEC CALL.
今天是买低的好时机。 去买点 USO Dec $40 CALL. 一周内就会有很多利润。石油在 $76.5 有很强的支撑。 除非大盘夸台，否则这一支撑很难破。 大盘现在是在修复过去两周 75 点 （ From 1030 to 1105 ) 的涨幅所带来的指标迟后和上涨量不足的问题。 别误以为这是空头的机会。 明天再横盘一天，这些问题都会解决。 下周一很可能又是大涨的日子。 千万不要做空大盘。
5. [1:30pm]OJ thinks if Oil closes it above 77, this mkt is not ready to go down below 1085 support. However, today at 2:30PM OIL did not close above 77, QJ existed her long positions and only hold UUP.
6. [WP] Nov.12th.2009 盘前汇报
个股跟踪：
短期：
1. PQ 目前持有 STOP raise to 6. 33 Target $8 PQ hold 在 6.46 以上就可以加仓。
2. CAAS 仍有 50% 持股 STOP raise to $14.35 Target: new high.
中期持股： AA, INTC， CREE, PCU， GLD, ILF， BIK
当日冲： BGU, EDC，TNA， ERX， DDM, SSO, FAS
2009年11月11日星期三
Market Summary on Nov.11th.2009
The prediction from yesterday is correct. Strong overseas economic data and the Fed's view for continued low interest rates pushed stocks higher Wednesday.
Today SPX, US Dollar($USD), Oil ($WTIC), Gold($GOLD) and AGG Bond ETF (
ISHARES BARCLAY(NYSEArca: AGG) )were all up.
Unfortunately, both VIX and SPX closed in green on the same day. When both SPX and VIX closed in green, most likely a down day the next day. In the past, 9 out of 16 times a red day the next day in this kind of situation.
Today SPX, US Dollar($USD), Oil ($WTIC), Gold($GOLD) and AGG Bond ETF (
ISHARES BARCLAY(NYSEArca: AGG) )were all up.
Unfortunately, both VIX and SPX closed in green on the same day. When both SPX and VIX closed in green, most likely a down day the next day. In the past, 9 out of 16 times a red day the next day in this kind of situation.
VIX candle is looking bullish which is bad for bull.
SPY Black OXY on possible double top. Horrible CMF on this run up.
[QJ]
1. She bought 1/4 position of UUP at $22.50/share, stop $21.50/share, target $24.00.
In her view, UUP is mid-term swing position, not day trading, UUP is a preventive position so she will not be shocked to see DXY move up suddenly while we sleeping.
2. DXY closed at 75.08, DXY overhight low was 74.77, and charles Nenner sent comments say 74.77 is near their target 74.70. If today DXY remains and close above 75, then short term this mkt is topped, head to 1080. The best real time watch DXY (USD index) is ThinkOrSwim. You can dowload think or swim for free just sign up for a paper trade account. DXY is the one that most institutions are watching daily.
3. Another pair of signal to watch if OIL and Copper, OIL CLZ9 and HG Z9, OIL below 79 and HG below 2.96 confirms top is passed today, short term topped.
[WP]
1。[收盘前一个小时] 多，空在 1093- 1105 地区展开殊死的搏斗。 目前多方略占优势。 如果 SPX 今天能收在 1100 之上，则是多头的胜利。
结果SPX收到1098.51。WP用 1/3 account value买了SPX DEC 110 的CALL。因为 SPX 毕竟没上 1100. 要留有余地。
2。[问] 老大：怎么看船股？DSX今天大涨。
[答]干船只适合做 TRADE. 由于需求下降，加上还有较多的大型干船在 pipe line 中，能力过剩。 因此，价格不会涨太多。 利润有限。所以，只可做 Trade， 不宜长持。
Summary: In my opinion, if the job numer is good, the market will go up for a while. How long is going to last, I have no clue. I need to sell 1/2 possition of pq when it's up.
2009年11月10日星期二
Future
Future real time quotes:http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/
Very useful info on ES===================
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2009/11/sp500-futures-explained.html
(1) DXZ09 USD Future
Very useful info on ES===================
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2009/11/sp500-futures-explained.html
(1) DXZ09 USD Future
Market Summary on Nov.10th.2009
Bought PQ at $6.50/share due to daily chart and weekly chart good.
Daily chart 已经划好了半圆弧形，应该向8.00元上涨。
Waveplayer recommended this stock. He bought PQ at $6.48 as planed, set STOP at $6.21.
Tomorrow the market should be up due to the following reasons.
1. [WP]DOW had a new high. This setup is intend to take out 1100 tomorrow.
2. [WP]AAPL, AMZN and GOOG are all strong, SPX may close at HOD. Now it above its Pivot point which is bullish.
3. [QJ] Oil closed 79+ 1 point pump in 30 minutes, this mkt is just pure manupulation
now it not difficult to close the day green. Tomorrow is holiday, volume will be low and more easy to manipulate mkt for fast moves between support and hew high.
4. [QJ] The rest of the year spx will be trading 1060-1120, there will be selling programs running above 1100 and buying programs running around 1060-1070. However,we will see 1-3 days down days to 1060-1070 and we will see 1100+ days ahead.
Since the market might reach double top at spx around 1100, I would not simply "buy dip and hold". Instead, what I will do is to buy low and sell high and take profit quick enough. While approaching to top, market swings harder, and all you need is to catch the ride on either side. Do not do buy&HOLD. One lesson today was that I should sell JASO at $4.50 and buy back later.
Daily chart 已经划好了半圆弧形，应该向8.00元上涨。
Waveplayer recommended this stock. He bought PQ at $6.48 as planed, set STOP at $6.21.
Tomorrow the market should be up due to the following reasons.
1. [WP]DOW had a new high. This setup is intend to take out 1100 tomorrow.
2. [WP]AAPL, AMZN and GOOG are all strong, SPX may close at HOD. Now it above its Pivot point which is bullish.
3. [QJ] Oil closed 79+ 1 point pump in 30 minutes, this mkt is just pure manupulation
now it not difficult to close the day green. Tomorrow is holiday, volume will be low and more easy to manipulate mkt for fast moves between support and hew high.
4. [QJ] The rest of the year spx will be trading 1060-1120, there will be selling programs running above 1100 and buying programs running around 1060-1070. However,we will see 1-3 days down days to 1060-1070 and we will see 1100+ days ahead.
Since the market might reach double top at spx around 1100, I would not simply "buy dip and hold". Instead, what I will do is to buy low and sell high and take profit quick enough. While approaching to top, market swings harder, and all you need is to catch the ride on either side. Do not do buy&HOLD. One lesson today was that I should sell JASO at $4.50 and buy back later.
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