Stock Martket View: 一月 2010

2010年1月31日星期日

Future Trading

Future trading:

1. Consider Margin Requirments.

1Future = 50 times of SP500

If SP500=1100, then it costs $50*1100=$55,000.

How much it cost for 1ES?

It costs different on the different platform.

Usually it's between $5000.00 and $6000.00.

If you have 20K account, you can trade 7 ES.

E.g.
TOS platform trade IRA 1ES at $7031.25 price at all day all night.
TOS platform trade normal account 1ES at $5625.00. However, the intraday Margin requirement is 25% of $5625.00=$1406.25.

IB platform trade normal account 1ES at $2500.00 at the intraday. Othertime, it costs $5000.00 for 1ES.

2. Future Trading Range Estimate http://enthios.com/
Good to check this site every morning to find the trading range.

3. Naked VPOC: Point of Control
http://www.pivotfarm.com/futures.html
http://www.pivotfarm.com/advanced-trader-notes.html

The matrix provided by them is excellent. Depending how much you want to make everyday - you can use the matrix to trade only at important levels.

4. Many people think Euro is dead and they now use AUD:USD, JPY:USD, and CAD:USD to track FX mkt.

6J for jpy:usd
6A for aud:usd

5. Asia people love gold, European people hate OIL
In normal mkt, usually if you short gold at asia high and long oil at german low, close both position at U.S 12PM EST, 85% time you make money.

6. Usually HG tells n=mkt direction

7. Do not trade during consildation time. It's easy to take your stop out. It's best to trade when the market direction is clear.

8. Option expire: Index options stop trading on Thursday morning. Friday is all stock option expired date.

1/31/2010 Sunday QJie Training Class

1. SPX 60 minutes chart on 1/31/2010

http://www.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/983a0573-b0f6-4d7e-896d-9c6dedd86c40

Expect to pull back to 1060 area. Then bounce back to 1080-1100 since we do have RSI positive divergence.

If the market can not pass 1100, the next wave down to 960.

If the market can go above 1200, the wave count can be changed.

2. http://www.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/7af11fba-c4f7-4163-b517-fd155e2fed24

3. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aa6oc6Wz9Ftg
India purchased the gold at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce, according to an IMF official on a conference call.

4. FX market leads the future. Future leads the cash.

Watch out EUR:USD and USDF:JPY

5. Charles Nenner is buying GC, NG http://charlesnenner.com/

6. Rumor: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35129399/

Yuan appreciate 5%. GS predicted 5%

http://www.wisdomtree.com/library/pdf/fundfacts/WisdomTree-FactSheet-CYB-518.pdf
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYB&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p13822108752&listNum=14&a=190293978

The other Chinese Yuan ETF is an ETN or exchange traded note, and it is the Market Vectors Renminbi/USD ETN sponsored by VanEck Global and is part of the Market Vectors family of ETFs and ETNs. The ETN is issued by Morgan Stanley. It trades on the NYSE Arca exchange under symbol CNY.

2010年1月24日星期日

Chinese Agriculture will be a good play in 2010

Jan.24th.2010

Watch: SEED, GRO, FEED, YONG

After a severe winter, focus on AG stocks, here is China news on Gov support 7000,000,000,000 Yuan funding for AG sector to recover.finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20100122/22147296168.shtml

Stocks like YONG is very close to its secondary offering price of 7.50, so if 7.50 holds, it its could be a buying point. YONG: liquid and powder nutrient compounds for plant and animal feed used in the agriculture industry. so keep eyes on it too.

Also LIWA, is a copper alternative stock, with mining tax on metal increase world wide, China will look for internal resource for base metals.I am looking for other Chinese Agriculture and base material stocks (not coal and solar) trading in U.S. Those might be good growth stocks for 2010, we should keep eyes on them.

Important Day Jan.25th.2010

1. SPX weekly chart is going to down trend. I have to get the chance to exit all my long positions without win. SPX 1050 is very important support. Once broken, I need get all the cash on the hand instead of the stock.

2. SPX daily chart is in down trend too. Once broken 1090/1080 support, it's going to fall down sharply without support.

3. SPX 60 minutes chart shows this is bearish count, if mkt bounce pass above 1120, then it will be counted differently.

1090 bounce to 1100, then fall back to 1060, then bounce to 1100/1200. If it can not pass 1120, it will drop to 960 area.

3. USD daily is going up.

4. USO daily is going down.

5. Watch out VIX and VXX chart to decide if it's still in bull market or bear market.

If VIX and VXX does not fall down, it means it's bear market. Then you can buy VXX around 30.

Trade suggestion: Go Long at Monday’s open using SPX 1082 as your stop loss and SPX 1109 as your target. Sell before Tuesday’s close.

LONG TERM: bear market

2010年1月10日星期日

How To Trade Breakouts

=========================================

7 COMMON BREAKOUT PATTERNS.

Check your favorites stocks whether they have the following patterns:ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/?p=818

If you’ve been following me for the past 6 weeks, you know that I have called breakouts almost immediately before they do so. I was asked by dozens and dozens of people to provide some sort of educational post on what I lookout for. The primary patterns that make it on my imminent, potential, and waiting lists are as follows: 1) parabolic breakout+symmetrical triangle, 2) bull flag, 3) ascending triangle, 4) failed descending triangle, 5) rounded bottom, 6) flat base, 7) measured move.

Each pattern must utilize price action, volume, moving averages (15, 20, 50, 100, 200-day), and the development of the pattern itself. The entry point is marked when everything “lines up perfectly”.

1) Parabolic breakout+symmetrical triangle:

These patterns are the intra-day spikes that I covet dearly. They are responsible for many of the fastest and largest gains that I have ever achieved. This pattern utilizes 2 or more continuation or consolidation patterns to complete itself. They are usually flat bases, flags, and a variety of triangles. When the pattern goes parabolic intra-day, there will usually be massive profit taking and the entire move could retrace as much as 50%. Most weakhands would sell in panic when this occurs. However, this is wrong.
After a large move, the pattern needs to consolidate it’s gains, shake out the weak holders, attract the dip buyers, and gather accumulation and interest for the next run up. Towards the end of the consolidating period, there will be another breakout, which marks a secondary entry to add another position.
Volume must be flat and declining prior to the spike, which will be accompanied by huge volume. In addition, the moving averages listed above will help guide you to time your entry. My favorite short-term averages are the 15- and 20-day MA’s. 50- and 100-day MA’s are intermediate averages, and the 200-day MA is the big daddy himself - the most important long-term MA.
Whenever you see a symmetrical triangle form after the initial spike, it is almost a guarantee that the particular stock will breakout again. Failures are rare, but they do happen.The point is to harvest as many of these patterns and cut losses on any of the failures.

2) Bull Flag:

Bull flags are usually very small and can last for only one day or several weeks. The way to tell the entry is by using the appropriate moving averages. Sometimes, I like to enter a flag regardless for fear that I may miss the breakout. However, the closer the pattern is to the 15- or 20-day, the faster the breakout will materialize.

3) Ascending Triangle:

The ascending triangle is one of the most obvious bullish patterns, and one that is highly reliable. Each trough is marked by selling exhaustion while the buyers hold their ground. You want to either get in on the breakout from the pattern or if you are more tolerant to risk, then enter within the pattern and just sit tight. Do not get shaken out.

4) Failed Descending Triangle:

Sometimes, when a pattern fails, it can be a good thing. A pattern failure will force holders on one side of a trade to immediately reconsider. A descending triangle is a bearish pattern but occasionally, it will fail. This will force short covering and a great time to add longs at the same time. I like to get in on the breakout on confirmation.

5) Rounded Bottom:

This pattern takes months, even years, to develop. The pattern is created by a downtrend, followed by a sideways neutral range. When the right side of this “saucer” develops, it will be obvious that the stock/market wants to go up. There should be a massive increase in volume on the breakouts following the final completing of the right side of the pattern. Shorts will cover their positions as they realize that they can no longer profit from the stock.
When the multi-month base is forming, the main moving averages should catch up to the stock. They should level off and start heading higher and support the stock as a “launching pad” for continuous breakouts.

6) Flat Base:

A flat base is basically an over extended flag trading in a neutral range on low volume. These patterns have one of the most powerful breakouts, ever. A stock can easily double in a matter of days/weeks. There should be no evidence of breakdown in this pattern and they should be entered immediately when you first find them. When the breakout occurs, it its highly likely that you never see pre-breakout prices for a long time.

7) Measured Move:

The measured move pattern is one of the most beautiful and predictable patterns. They easily launch from their supporting moving average. The best part is that several moving averages should provide support below the stock. They act as back up in case there is a failure.There should be decreasing volume during consolidation, followed by large volume breakouts.
I hope this helps.
-------------------------------------------------------------breakpointtrades.com/watch_rules.htm

Some basic rules:

1. Volume is crucial. When looking at a chart for a good entry, the key to successful trading is an increase in volume. Chart breaks without volume have a much lower probability of success.

2. Only trade breakouts with an excellent volume % relative to their 60-day volume average. Some programs like Medved Quote Tracker will provide this information for you. The 60-day moving average can also be found on Yahoo Finance under detailed quotes. Trading breakouts with big volume % will greatly enhance your probability of a successful trade. This is especially true when day trading or swing trading. (Please note: Increased volume is not as important when shorting a stock.)

Here is a simple formula you can use to determine the volume % at any point during a trading day:[Total volume / hours into the trading day] multiplied by 6.5 (trading hours in a day)

Here's an Example: Stock ABC has a breakpoint of $10.25 with a 60-day average volume of 500,000 shares. At 11:30AM, stock ABC breaks the $10.25 price resistance (breakpoint) with a volume of 100,000 shares. Does this breakout possess a high probability of success? The answer is NO. Even though ABC has broken out above the 10.25 resistance level, using the formula above, the adjusted volume of 325,000 shares does not meet or exceed the 60-day average volume.100,000 / 2 = 50,00050,000 x (6.5) = 325,0003. It is a good idea to avoid entering new positions in the first 15 minutes after the market open.

4. Avoid holding a position into earnings as this can result in a major loss. A Positive earnings surprise can result in a significant gain, but the potential reward usually does not merit the risk.

5. Do not overweight your trading resources in one position.

6. Do not enter a position early. Wait for a pattern to setup, make sure it has above average volume, then only enter only after the price has traded through the breakout price.

7. It's a good habit to sell 1/2 your trading position on an initial move above resistance and reset stops at entry to ensure a profitable trade. Use mental stops to avoid large losses.

8. Avoid averaging down if a position goes against you. Maintain proper mental stops. If the stock moves back up, you can always reenter.

9. Keep your emotions even. Do not become exuberant when trades go well and do not become depressed when trades do not work. Maintaining an even temperament in the short term will enable you to trade for the long term.

2010年1月6日星期三

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