2010年3月29日星期一
2010年3月18日星期四
Stocks
3/18/2010
AA: AA目前是突破后回探頸線支撐的走勢，突破昨天高點后市仍將繼續上行
礦業股 aa2010年每股收益預期0.84，暫無增長率和市盈率資料
Alcoa(AA). Alcoa's increased focus on higher-margin aluminum products has been slow going in 2010, and shares are down double digits since Jan. 1. But a breakout in yesterday's trading could leave this stock set up for a serious upside pop in the next week.
Alcoa starting forming an ascending triangle -- a bullish pattern characterized by a set resistance level and higher lows -- back in February. But it wasn't until yesterday that shares actually staged their breakout, with strong economic data as the catalyst.
Shares of Alcoa don't face another meaningful price ceiling until $17, so expect traders to be watching shares intently for the opportunity to snag a nearly 18% gain quickly. Wait for a second consecutive open above the horizontal blue line before going long yourself.
AA: AA目前是突破后回探頸線支撐的走勢，突破昨天高點后市仍將繼續上行
礦業股 aa2010年每股收益預期0.84，暫無增長率和市盈率資料
Alcoa(AA). Alcoa's increased focus on higher-margin aluminum products has been slow going in 2010, and shares are down double digits since Jan. 1. But a breakout in yesterday's trading could leave this stock set up for a serious upside pop in the next week.
Alcoa starting forming an ascending triangle -- a bullish pattern characterized by a set resistance level and higher lows -- back in February. But it wasn't until yesterday that shares actually staged their breakout, with strong economic data as the catalyst.
Shares of Alcoa don't face another meaningful price ceiling until $17, so expect traders to be watching shares intently for the opportunity to snag a nearly 18% gain quickly. Wait for a second consecutive open above the horizontal blue line before going long yourself.
2010年3月17日星期三
Chinese Stocks
YONG has GS support at 7.50 on seconary offering.
HEAT has fidelity support at 11.50.
SEED has wide acceptance.
CAGC has good reputation.
RINO is done with accounting rumor , no one knows truth
FUQI
Warren on 3/17/2010:
FUQI的业绩将调整到 1.66-1.70每股的业绩，对应静态PE的8倍在13.28-15元附近。 进一步支撑在11.99元附近， 我认为此股在这个区间，将逐渐走稳，然后看业绩的进展。
[long 3/17/2010 2:17:33 AM EST] warren 老师 ；大陆的朋友打电话说；现在黄金价格在200元一克，那么黄金首饰价格更高，刚刚春节假曰我们相信fuqi销售一定很好！！只要这个公司不破产，我还继续持有，等待股价调整！！！！谢谢WARRN ，
[warren 3/17/2010 2:12:29 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 13-19周三會留下大缺口，這個缺口我認為遲早要被填補，為什麽？如果金價上升的話，FUQI的7000萬價值存貨就要升值，如果被套，我認為也不要心急，但是我不會加倉，我覺得這公司的信任出現了危機。
[warren 3/17/2010 2:08:46 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: long G 3/17/2010 1:51:57 AM EST] warren 老师 ；fuqi有100多家商铺，要一个一个盘点，也许需要时间，这很正常，只是它的会计季报误差问题，是否有别有用心的人利用利空吃货！ FUQI100個商鋪僅是零售店業務，主要的營收來自于批發，很明顯公司內部為了在去年夏天提高發行價，而做了手腳，當然在10-13附近，這股逐漸變得有吸引力了，不過我不會買!13-14價格我們都見過，我也不十分吃驚，短期看吧，主要看金價和機構持有者的表現。
[warren 3/17/2010 1:44:13 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI誤報業績在09年第二和第三季度，這與去年夏天1億的增發時間吻合，公司做低了成本，做高了利潤，看來目的是很確的，是讓發行價在最高點，希望這家公司的內部控制能做好。
[long 3/17/2010 1:08:10 AM EST] warren 老师 ；FUQI的业绩误差，是否在 0.20 左右，为什么盘后股价跌这么多，warren 你给分析一下，这庄家也出不去套在里了，是否这样！！！
[goup2040 3/17/2010 12:51:26 AM EST] warrent, what will happen to the FUQI price tomorrow morning? another big drip of stock?
[warren 3/17/2010 12:38:17 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: [shir G 3/17/2010 12:31:11 AM EST] Warren, thank you for your prompt follow-up on FUQI. The good thing is that I have learned postion contol in VIP and have light position after Jan 21, 2010. Good for you!
[warren 3/17/2010 12:37:26 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 去年五月11日FUQI也有一次延遲報季報，後面四天就公布了季報，看來第四和第一季度（中國春節）期間是會計的頭痛階段。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:26:14 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI我從IPO第一天開始追蹤，看他從10元上下波動，然後今年金融風暴從3元一路漲到34,很可惜，今年出了會計問題，我覺得一種可能，就是這公司管理的難度大了，1.78億的銷售額度，很多公司一上市就露出問題了，象GRO,GU,不過這次的確讓我有點失望，很多行業中的利好，沒有轉換成FUQI的利好，看最近兩天分析師如何說的吧，By the way, JRJC業績公布后小幅走高，銷售額度再度走強。 他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙：他賣不出什麽股，我的意思(更正)
[warren 3/17/2010 12:21:24 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI和很多中國公司不同的是，FUQI的創始人是44%占股，這是個很大的不同，他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙，也就是說他心裡很有野心罷了，看下NTES,在剛上市的問題不會比FUQI要小，我覺得這是個教訓，在憤怒之餘，安靜想下，很多中國公司都是管理團隊，占有10%附近的持股，他們的目的自然不同，要重視大股東占有40%以上股份的公司，創始人還是KEY。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:16:44 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI的故事 從沒有審計的季報到審計的年報，其中被高出0.20,我認為是兩種可能1）公司的CFO對於美國的審計制度缺乏經驗，或者由於壓力提前高估了，其實如果拿中國A股的審計報告，大部分都是通不過美國的審計制度的。2)歷史季度上顯示，FUQI是個高成長的公司，所以在成長中必然有很多煩惱，這在以前的FMCN上也是有鮮例的。關於法律訴訟，律師一張文，再簽30%提成，基本上股東分不到一分錢。即使類似ENRON這種大的詐騙案件，也沒有股東拿回一分錢的。那么FUQI還有希望嗎，現在FUQI的Book Value就在10元，現金是6元，即使如何計算，還是賺錢的公司，下一個還是看黃金的走勢，黃金價值走高，它的存貨自然價值升高。對不起，在過去的半年內，我以投資角度去看這公司，業績讓我很紅臉，再看吧。
[lsp04lyf 3/17/2010 12:03:05 AM EST] 能用中文解释一下该要怎么做，需不需要或者需要支付多少费用吗？FUQI做的也太损了点，简直无法无天了，不告他们真是恶气难出啊。
I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join.
[shir 3/16/2010 11:51:06 PM EST] I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join. http://www.howardsmithlaw.com/SecuritiesFraudCases/FuqiInternational.html
[shir 3/16/2010 11:46:20 PM EST] Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Investigation On Behalf of Shareholders of Fuqi International, Inc. BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims against Fuqi International, Inc. (“Fuqi International” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq:FUQI - News) concerning possible securities violations related to the Company’s public statements regarding its financial performance between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010. Fuqi International, through its subsidiaries, engages in designing, developing, promoting and selling precious-metal jewelry in the People’s Republic of China.The investigation concerns the Company’s March 16, 2010, announcement that it will delay the release of its final fourth quarter and year-end 2009 financial results, and will also file an extension for the filing of its Form 10-K for 2009 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to the statement, “the Company identified certain accounting errors that are expected to have a material impact on the previously issued quarterly financial statements for the first three quarters of 2009.” The Company further announced that “it is expected that as a result of the accounting errors, the cost of sales for each of the periods were understated and gross profit and net income, as a result, were accordingly overstated.” The Company’s statement preliminarily estimated that the earnings per share included in its previously issued financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2009, were overstated in the range of $0.15-$0.19 per share.If you purchased shares of Fuqi International, Inc. stock between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010 and suffered a loss, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmith@howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlink&url=http%3A%2F%
warren 3/16/2010 9:27:26 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: 關於FUQI 晚上好，FUQI今天延長了年報的日期，對于第四季度預測發布了警告，股價大跌了30%,同時在年報審計中也提到了，以前三個季度被過高的估計了約0.20的業績。我覺得這是中國民營企業在美國上市路程上的一個教訓，我也很遺憾，但是看到FUQI的第四季度達到歷史新高，這也是個利好，同時零售店的銷售也增加了3倍，這也是利好。利空：1.審計結果使得FUQI過高的估計了0.20的每股盈利,這使得這個公司的信譽在投資人心目中打打折扣。2.第四季度的業績展望調低，市場價值從2.20變成1.60-1.773.低利潤的產品繼續在走高，這使得市場短期不會過於看好FUQI，除非利潤率出現變化。非常遺憾看到FUQI的這種結果，我認為FUQI近期還將在11-15區間震蕩，當然也不排除會去填補19元的缺口。Again,我是用投資的角度去看這股，這種結果也是在投資中的一種過程，暫時我將觀望。
[cpadvanced 3/16/2010 8:41:59 PM EST] FUQI: 该公司一直在进行截至2009年12月31日根据评估其内部控制与公司的萨班斯法案的遵约程序。虽然该公司的评估程序尚未完成，该公司认为，至少在有关其2009年萨班斯法案404节规定的审计，迄今查明的缺陷之一，构成物质的弱点，包括但不限于：公司的时期结束的2009年12月31日结束的过程。作为2009年的萨班斯所获得的结果法案404节审计，迄今为止，该公司确定的有关本公司的库存和销售成本的核算某些错误。 该会计差错的结果预计将有一个以前发布的季度为2009年前三个季度的财务报表产生重大影响，如在档案中。管理和会计人员需要更多时间来进行对先前提出的2009年的季度财务报表的内部评价这种影响。由于审查工作仍在进行中，本公司无法准确估计，在这个时候对公司中期的2009年前三个季度的财务报表的影响。 然而，对公司现状的评估，预计该会计差错的结果是，为2009年第一季度和第二季度各销售成本被低估和毛利润和净利润，因此， ，据此夸大这种时期。根据公司的最新估计，可能多报，目前预计将达到约12％-14％和21％-23第一季度％，而2009年第二季度，分别每股盈利中包括以前发布截至9月30日的9个月，2009年的约0.15美元，折合每股0.19美元的基础上约23.0亿加权平均股数截至9月30日的9个月，2009年多报的财务报表。上述估计是根据初步资料，只在作为本表格8日提供给公司- K中受到与其进行审核调整，并没有得到公司的独立注册会计师事务所审计。 由于上述原因，该公司完成其年度综合财务报表，并要求被推迟披露之前，公司的分析和对以前发布的2009年季度财务报表中的潜在错误评估的完成。正如该公司的表格第12B - 25与证券交易委员会提交的2010年3月16号，本公司将申请表格10日- K年度报告，尽快，并试图把日历的15天以下的申请规定对上述报告的截止日期，但是，就没有这份报告将被提交的期限内保证。因此，时间，本公司拟提交修订的申请，每年按规定，披露会计误差的影响。 该公司的审计委员会和管理层讨论了事实和会计错误，并与该公司的独立审计师进行内部分析的情况。
[warren 3/15/2010 12:10:57 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: FUQI退出Roth Capitl峰會的意義FUQI突然退出Roth Capital峰會，這在周五被解釋成負面，在我統計之中，負面要多餘正面，因為Roth Capital的峰會也是一次與機構投資人見面的機會，所以FUQI連續兩天下跌。還是我說的，要證明這股是裊還是雄，最關鍵的還是業績，現在市場過多的猜測，是準備誘空，還是暴風雨來之前，誰都說不清楚。不過這條消息解釋了周五的下跌。3/15/2010 10:35:47 AM美股新聞快訊FUQI退出Roth資本增長會議Fuqi International(FUQI)已經退出了由Roth所組織的，將於下週舉行的資本增長會議。該消息已得到了Roth的確認，原因為日程方面存在衝突。
FUQI的业绩将调整到 1.66-1.70每股的业绩，对应静态PE的8倍在13.28-15元附近。 进一步支撑在11.99元附近， 我认为此股在这个区间，将逐渐走稳，然后看业绩的进展。
[long 3/17/2010 2:17:33 AM EST] warren 老师 ；大陆的朋友打电话说；现在黄金价格在200元一克，那么黄金首饰价格更高，刚刚春节假曰我们相信fuqi销售一定很好！！只要这个公司不破产，我还继续持有，等待股价调整！！！！谢谢WARRN ，
[warren 3/17/2010 2:12:29 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 13-19周三會留下大缺口，這個缺口我認為遲早要被填補，為什麽？如果金價上升的話，FUQI的7000萬價值存貨就要升值，如果被套，我認為也不要心急，但是我不會加倉，我覺得這公司的信任出現了危機。
[warren 3/17/2010 2:08:46 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: long G 3/17/2010 1:51:57 AM EST] warren 老师 ；fuqi有100多家商铺，要一个一个盘点，也许需要时间，这很正常，只是它的会计季报误差问题，是否有别有用心的人利用利空吃货！ FUQI100個商鋪僅是零售店業務，主要的營收來自于批發，很明顯公司內部為了在去年夏天提高發行價，而做了手腳，當然在10-13附近，這股逐漸變得有吸引力了，不過我不會買!13-14價格我們都見過，我也不十分吃驚，短期看吧，主要看金價和機構持有者的表現。
[warren 3/17/2010 1:44:13 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI誤報業績在09年第二和第三季度，這與去年夏天1億的增發時間吻合，公司做低了成本，做高了利潤，看來目的是很確的，是讓發行價在最高點，希望這家公司的內部控制能做好。
[long 3/17/2010 1:08:10 AM EST] warren 老师 ；FUQI的业绩误差，是否在 0.20 左右，为什么盘后股价跌这么多，warren 你给分析一下，这庄家也出不去套在里了，是否这样！！！
[goup2040 3/17/2010 12:51:26 AM EST] warrent, what will happen to the FUQI price tomorrow morning? another big drip of stock?
[warren 3/17/2010 12:38:17 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: [shir G 3/17/2010 12:31:11 AM EST] Warren, thank you for your prompt follow-up on FUQI. The good thing is that I have learned postion contol in VIP and have light position after Jan 21, 2010. Good for you!
[warren 3/17/2010 12:37:26 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 去年五月11日FUQI也有一次延遲報季報，後面四天就公布了季報，看來第四和第一季度（中國春節）期間是會計的頭痛階段。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:26:14 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI我從IPO第一天開始追蹤，看他從10元上下波動，然後今年金融風暴從3元一路漲到34,很可惜，今年出了會計問題，我覺得一種可能，就是這公司管理的難度大了，1.78億的銷售額度，很多公司一上市就露出問題了，象GRO,GU,不過這次的確讓我有點失望，很多行業中的利好，沒有轉換成FUQI的利好，看最近兩天分析師如何說的吧，By the way, JRJC業績公布后小幅走高，銷售額度再度走強。 他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙：他賣不出什麽股，我的意思(更正)
[warren 3/17/2010 12:21:24 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI和很多中國公司不同的是，FUQI的創始人是44%占股，這是個很大的不同，他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙，也就是說他心裡很有野心罷了，看下NTES,在剛上市的問題不會比FUQI要小，我覺得這是個教訓，在憤怒之餘，安靜想下，很多中國公司都是管理團隊，占有10%附近的持股，他們的目的自然不同，要重視大股東占有40%以上股份的公司，創始人還是KEY。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:16:44 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI的故事 從沒有審計的季報到審計的年報，其中被高出0.20,我認為是兩種可能1）公司的CFO對於美國的審計制度缺乏經驗，或者由於壓力提前高估了，其實如果拿中國A股的審計報告，大部分都是通不過美國的審計制度的。2)歷史季度上顯示，FUQI是個高成長的公司，所以在成長中必然有很多煩惱，這在以前的FMCN上也是有鮮例的。關於法律訴訟，律師一張文，再簽30%提成，基本上股東分不到一分錢。即使類似ENRON這種大的詐騙案件，也沒有股東拿回一分錢的。那么FUQI還有希望嗎，現在FUQI的Book Value就在10元，現金是6元，即使如何計算，還是賺錢的公司，下一個還是看黃金的走勢，黃金價值走高，它的存貨自然價值升高。對不起，在過去的半年內，我以投資角度去看這公司，業績讓我很紅臉，再看吧。
[lsp04lyf 3/17/2010 12:03:05 AM EST] 能用中文解释一下该要怎么做，需不需要或者需要支付多少费用吗？FUQI做的也太损了点，简直无法无天了，不告他们真是恶气难出啊。
I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join.
[shir 3/16/2010 11:51:06 PM EST] I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join. http://www.howardsmithlaw.com/SecuritiesFraudCases/FuqiInternational.html
[shir 3/16/2010 11:46:20 PM EST] Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Investigation On Behalf of Shareholders of Fuqi International, Inc. BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims against Fuqi International, Inc. (“Fuqi International” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq:FUQI - News) concerning possible securities violations related to the Company’s public statements regarding its financial performance between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010. Fuqi International, through its subsidiaries, engages in designing, developing, promoting and selling precious-metal jewelry in the People’s Republic of China.The investigation concerns the Company’s March 16, 2010, announcement that it will delay the release of its final fourth quarter and year-end 2009 financial results, and will also file an extension for the filing of its Form 10-K for 2009 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to the statement, “the Company identified certain accounting errors that are expected to have a material impact on the previously issued quarterly financial statements for the first three quarters of 2009.” The Company further announced that “it is expected that as a result of the accounting errors, the cost of sales for each of the periods were understated and gross profit and net income, as a result, were accordingly overstated.” The Company’s statement preliminarily estimated that the earnings per share included in its previously issued financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2009, were overstated in the range of $0.15-$0.19 per share.If you purchased shares of Fuqi International, Inc. stock between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010 and suffered a loss, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmith@howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlink&url=http%3A%2F%
warren 3/16/2010 9:27:26 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: 關於FUQI 晚上好，FUQI今天延長了年報的日期，對于第四季度預測發布了警告，股價大跌了30%,同時在年報審計中也提到了，以前三個季度被過高的估計了約0.20的業績。我覺得這是中國民營企業在美國上市路程上的一個教訓，我也很遺憾，但是看到FUQI的第四季度達到歷史新高，這也是個利好，同時零售店的銷售也增加了3倍，這也是利好。利空：1.審計結果使得FUQI過高的估計了0.20的每股盈利,這使得這個公司的信譽在投資人心目中打打折扣。2.第四季度的業績展望調低，市場價值從2.20變成1.60-1.773.低利潤的產品繼續在走高，這使得市場短期不會過於看好FUQI，除非利潤率出現變化。非常遺憾看到FUQI的這種結果，我認為FUQI近期還將在11-15區間震蕩，當然也不排除會去填補19元的缺口。Again,我是用投資的角度去看這股，這種結果也是在投資中的一種過程，暫時我將觀望。
[cpadvanced 3/16/2010 8:41:59 PM EST] FUQI: 该公司一直在进行截至2009年12月31日根据评估其内部控制与公司的萨班斯法案的遵约程序。虽然该公司的评估程序尚未完成，该公司认为，至少在有关其2009年萨班斯法案404节规定的审计，迄今查明的缺陷之一，构成物质的弱点，包括但不限于：公司的时期结束的2009年12月31日结束的过程。作为2009年的萨班斯所获得的结果法案404节审计，迄今为止，该公司确定的有关本公司的库存和销售成本的核算某些错误。 该会计差错的结果预计将有一个以前发布的季度为2009年前三个季度的财务报表产生重大影响，如在档案中。管理和会计人员需要更多时间来进行对先前提出的2009年的季度财务报表的内部评价这种影响。由于审查工作仍在进行中，本公司无法准确估计，在这个时候对公司中期的2009年前三个季度的财务报表的影响。 然而，对公司现状的评估，预计该会计差错的结果是，为2009年第一季度和第二季度各销售成本被低估和毛利润和净利润，因此， ，据此夸大这种时期。根据公司的最新估计，可能多报，目前预计将达到约12％-14％和21％-23第一季度％，而2009年第二季度，分别每股盈利中包括以前发布截至9月30日的9个月，2009年的约0.15美元，折合每股0.19美元的基础上约23.0亿加权平均股数截至9月30日的9个月，2009年多报的财务报表。上述估计是根据初步资料，只在作为本表格8日提供给公司- K中受到与其进行审核调整，并没有得到公司的独立注册会计师事务所审计。 由于上述原因，该公司完成其年度综合财务报表，并要求被推迟披露之前，公司的分析和对以前发布的2009年季度财务报表中的潜在错误评估的完成。正如该公司的表格第12B - 25与证券交易委员会提交的2010年3月16号，本公司将申请表格10日- K年度报告，尽快，并试图把日历的15天以下的申请规定对上述报告的截止日期，但是，就没有这份报告将被提交的期限内保证。因此，时间，本公司拟提交修订的申请，每年按规定，披露会计误差的影响。 该公司的审计委员会和管理层讨论了事实和会计错误，并与该公司的独立审计师进行内部分析的情况。
[warren 3/15/2010 12:10:57 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: FUQI退出Roth Capitl峰會的意義FUQI突然退出Roth Capital峰會，這在周五被解釋成負面，在我統計之中，負面要多餘正面，因為Roth Capital的峰會也是一次與機構投資人見面的機會，所以FUQI連續兩天下跌。還是我說的，要證明這股是裊還是雄，最關鍵的還是業績，現在市場過多的猜測，是準備誘空，還是暴風雨來之前，誰都說不清楚。不過這條消息解釋了周五的下跌。3/15/2010 10:35:47 AM美股新聞快訊FUQI退出Roth資本增長會議Fuqi International(FUQI)已經退出了由Roth所組織的，將於下週舉行的資本增長會議。該消息已得到了Roth的確認，原因為日程方面存在衝突。
2010年3月15日星期一
2010年3月13日星期六
Stock Watch Lists
1. DRYS
Warren: 這是我兩次DRYS的時間和價格，供參考。
3/10/2010 10:38:05 AM warren 繼續加倉DRYS 6.18-6.19
03/10/20101/11/2010 3:40:10 PM warren 買進DRYS 6.53 01/11/2010
Warren: 這是我兩次DRYS的時間和價格，供參考。
3/10/2010 10:38:05 AM warren 繼續加倉DRYS 6.18-6.19
03/10/20101/11/2010 3:40:10 PM warren 買進DRYS 6.53 01/11/2010
2010年3月12日星期五
2010年3月9日星期二
Warren recommended stocks
3/9/2009
隨著上周五就業數據的公布，近期美股大漲之後處於橫盤震蕩的走勢。Warren 近期非常看好黃金的走勢，黃金的走勢如Warren所預測的受到美國就業數據對美元的影響，出現了回落，但這不影響Warren看好黃金的觀點。
從近期的走勢中可以看到DryShips (DRYS),Las Vegas Sands(LVS)這兩支個股走勢都非常強勁，另外前期被拋空的一些個股近期也出現了一輪補漲的行情，值得投資人關註。
Warren認為不可錯過的三支網絡通訊板塊個股為：
1. Cisco Systems(CSCO) ，CSCO將在今天盤後召開發布會，公布其所推出的新網絡。從圖形來看，CSCO從去年9月份到現在處於較長時間的橫盤整理區間，現在出現一輪突破的行情。Warren認為主要原因是當今社會對網絡通訊和網路通訊設備的需求非常大，上網的速度將會越來越快。投資大師Peter Lynch在其著作中有講到，投資人應該買入自己喜歡或了解的個股。CSCO作為網絡通訊的龍頭，通過不斷的兼並變成統治網絡通訊的個股。這支股票最高點在72美元，現在股價僅約為72美元的1/3；市盈率只有16倍左右，越來越合理；公司成長速度因網路通訊加速的需求而不斷增加。CSCO 在27-28美元附近會出現一輪短期的壓力，將有一個小幅回落的走勢。不過在橫盤以後這支個股將會有繼續走強的機會。
2. 具有小CSCO之稱的Juniper Networks(JNPR), 從圖形來看，走勢基本與CSCO相同。 8-9月份出現橫盤整理以後，最近出現了突破的走勢。基本上橫盤的區間在23-29左右，走勢相對於大盤來說要強很多。
3. Riverbed Technology(RVBD) ,这支个股和CSCO一樣，走出了三角形的整理區間，從去年4-5月份到今年3月份基本在這個區間整理，而且出現了不斷沖高，這個個股也會有上漲的機會。那麽現在如何操作？
Warren認為，這三支個股可能會回調，回調的時候一定有買入的機會，但是不能保證市場有回調或何時回調。可以做長線，或分批進場，在出現回調的時候再不斷加倉。
隨著上周五就業數據的公布，近期美股大漲之後處於橫盤震蕩的走勢。Warren 近期非常看好黃金的走勢，黃金的走勢如Warren所預測的受到美國就業數據對美元的影響，出現了回落，但這不影響Warren看好黃金的觀點。
從近期的走勢中可以看到DryShips (DRYS),Las Vegas Sands(LVS)這兩支個股走勢都非常強勁，另外前期被拋空的一些個股近期也出現了一輪補漲的行情，值得投資人關註。
Warren認為不可錯過的三支網絡通訊板塊個股為：
1. Cisco Systems(CSCO) ，CSCO將在今天盤後召開發布會，公布其所推出的新網絡。從圖形來看，CSCO從去年9月份到現在處於較長時間的橫盤整理區間，現在出現一輪突破的行情。Warren認為主要原因是當今社會對網絡通訊和網路通訊設備的需求非常大，上網的速度將會越來越快。投資大師Peter Lynch在其著作中有講到，投資人應該買入自己喜歡或了解的個股。CSCO作為網絡通訊的龍頭，通過不斷的兼並變成統治網絡通訊的個股。這支股票最高點在72美元，現在股價僅約為72美元的1/3；市盈率只有16倍左右，越來越合理；公司成長速度因網路通訊加速的需求而不斷增加。CSCO 在27-28美元附近會出現一輪短期的壓力，將有一個小幅回落的走勢。不過在橫盤以後這支個股將會有繼續走強的機會。
2. 具有小CSCO之稱的Juniper Networks(JNPR), 從圖形來看，走勢基本與CSCO相同。 8-9月份出現橫盤整理以後，最近出現了突破的走勢。基本上橫盤的區間在23-29左右，走勢相對於大盤來說要強很多。
3. Riverbed Technology(RVBD) ,这支个股和CSCO一樣，走出了三角形的整理區間，從去年4-5月份到今年3月份基本在這個區間整理，而且出現了不斷沖高，這個個股也會有上漲的機會。那麽現在如何操作？
Warren認為，這三支個股可能會回調，回調的時候一定有買入的機會，但是不能保證市場有回調或何時回調。可以做長線，或分批進場，在出現回調的時候再不斷加倉。
2010年3月7日星期日
Charles Nenner updates Paid site
Charles Nenner is a famous mkt researcher, he use many ways to form his cycle theory.
3/9/2010 updates
Spu...The next short term daily high is March 18th. The weekly cycles do not top until April 24. Charles needs more time and price action to measure the potential of the next break to see if it can exceed the last 9% correction. There was some discussion as to the current wave structure measured from the 2007 high to the 2009 low. 1147 was the .618, with 1187 his current tgt.
Nasd...He sees the most potential for upside here.
Stocks and ETF's
GS...still his favorite
AAPL...Hit his 1st tgt of 222. A good close above this level will tgt 242.
XLF... The next weekly high is April 20th with a 16.10 tgt
XRT.. The retailers are up into April 19th
EFA...The daily is down into march 17, then up into April 1. The weekly is down into mid May.
Bonds...The June contracts are on sell signal. The next short term daily low is March 18.
He still sees this trade as taking a long time.
Yen..the short term daily cycle bottomed yesterday and is up into April 14th. The weekly has topped.When you get this disparity in the cycles, you can get a lot of back and forth until they both turn down.This occurs after year end accounting in Japan ( March 31st)
Aussie..91.30 is Charles’ tgt and the level to watch. Closes above this area can lead to higher price tgt's. The weekly cycles bottom again the beginning of April.
Gold... Hit the tgt of 1142. The daily is up into March 23. The weekly is down.
Sugar...The next weekly low is April 19th with a 19.50 tgt. We'll look for a long around then.Crude...The daily cycles are up into month end when both the daily and the weekly top.
3/8/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow– Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
S&P/Nasdaq
No change
The buy signal continues and cycles are up
We expect to see our upside price targets, as long as the S&P does not close below 1116 and the Nasdaq not below 1845
Sector
Gold continues on a buy signal for a few more weeks
However, Gold did not close yet above our upside price target of 1142
As long as that does not happen, our upside price target of 1187 has not been confirmed
Crude
The buy signal continues
Cycles are up for most of Mar
Keep now a sell stop below 79.50
It seems extreme, but a move to $92 is possible
US Bonds
We are now writing about June Bonds
The 30 and 5 year are on a sell signal, but the 10 year not yet
The 10 year still will have to close below 117
The down move is very slow
There are only a few months to go
We are still trying to go long the 10 year around a yield of 4% but we might not reach it.
Bunds
Bunds continue on a buy signal, as long there is no close below 124
Euro
No change
Still no buy signal
However, as mentioned before, we closed shorts based on the short term cycle low
Aussie
The Aussie reached our upside price target of 91.30, but continues on a buy signal
Cycles are close to a low
A close above 91.30 will probably give higher price targets
Aud/Nzd
We could still see our upside price taget of 133.50
Cycles are topping
A close below 129 will signal that we saw a short term high
Yen
No change
We see some weakness
However, the next short term low in Yen strength, Dollar Yen weakness is in a few days
We are waiting one more time to see strength in order to go short
Longer term cycles topped in Yen strength, and are down until year end
Canadian Dollar
Our price target is still around 101
Based on long term cycles, it can take until July
Short term traders might sell around the short term cycle high around Mar 18
3/3/2010 updates
here is charles N comments, sometime I do not understand, it is impossible for EUR to go 1.40 while AUD and JPY say topped tomorrw, let's seealso see his view of AG futures, wheat and soybean major cycle======================================
Bonds... Charles want to go long the 10 yr. at 4.10 yield for a one year trade.He sees rates higher from here into the summer, then lower yields as a deflationscare sets in for app 1 year, after which the story changes to inflation and rates riseEventual targets 2 -3 years out are 6 1/2%, then the 8-9% level.SPU….The weekly cycle is up into mid AprilGold..Daily cycles are up with a 1140-42 target. This is a high risk trade.The next daily high is the 23 rd. The weekly cycles do not support a sustained move upwith the next quarterly low not coming until Oct. 2010.Copper..The daily cycle is up into March 19th. The weekly cycle is up into late May with a 373 target.Nat Gas... cycles are down until June 2011 with targets of 3.80 and 1.70Crude..The next daily high is March 6th. 78 is the closing breakdown #. The weekly cycles top the 3rd week of March and are down into 2011. After the weekly cycles top mid month, a close below 71.70 will confirm the high of this recent upto the mid 80's for a 1 year down.Wheat/Soybeans...Charles is looking for a major bull to start in a couple of months lasting into May 2013.Euro..There is still time on the daily cycles for the Euro to rally before the weekly tops again.He's looking for the dream sell around 140 eventually targeting 118.Yen...USD/JGY bottoms this week. Charles is looking for a major move to 105 by year end.Aussie..The daily cycles are as follows: the next high is March 3, the following low is March 18, then up into April 6th.Aud/Eur…The weekly bottoms mid March, then cycles are up into July.
3/5/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow – Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
One of our clients - who is much more knowledgeable than we are - is convinced that the market leaders are GS, Apple, and Google
Yesterday, GS gave the expected buy signal, closing above 162.50
Apple gave an upside price target of 222
Google will join, once there is a close above 555
Cycles are up
Markets continue on a buy signal
We did not get confirmed higher price targets
However, one more good up day will confirm the targets, which are:
S&P 1175, which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1107
Nasdaq 1946 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1827
Dow 11,000 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 10,280
Crude
We are still waiting to see if there will be a good close above $80.50
That will lead to higher price targets
Cycles continue up until late March
Sector
Gold corrected after reaching our upside price target of 1142
Cycles are up
The buy signal continues, as long as there is no close below 1111
A good close above 1142 will project to 1187
Nat Gas
Longer term cycles are down until May 2011
Our downside price targets are 3.88 and 1.70
US Bonds
The 10 and 5 year refuse to give a sell signal
Bunds
Bunds should continue up to our price target of 125
A close below 123.80 will be a sell signal
Euro
The positive cycles only seem to lead to an intraday bounce
No change in outlook
Australian Dollar
The fact that the Aussie is holding up with cycles bottoming in few weeks is positive
A move to 91.30 is still possible, as long as there is no close below 89.50
Yen
The Yen reached our upside price target of 88
Weekly cycles topped
However, based on daily cycles, we could see a test of 88
We are still waiting to go short Yen, long Dollar Yen
Wheat/ Beans/ Corn
The sell signal continues
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/9/2010 updates
Spu...The next short term daily high is March 18th. The weekly cycles do not top until April 24. Charles needs more time and price action to measure the potential of the next break to see if it can exceed the last 9% correction. There was some discussion as to the current wave structure measured from the 2007 high to the 2009 low. 1147 was the .618, with 1187 his current tgt.
Nasd...He sees the most potential for upside here.
Stocks and ETF's
GS...still his favorite
AAPL...Hit his 1st tgt of 222. A good close above this level will tgt 242.
XLF... The next weekly high is April 20th with a 16.10 tgt
XRT.. The retailers are up into April 19th
EFA...The daily is down into march 17, then up into April 1. The weekly is down into mid May.
Bonds...The June contracts are on sell signal. The next short term daily low is March 18.
He still sees this trade as taking a long time.
Yen..the short term daily cycle bottomed yesterday and is up into April 14th. The weekly has topped.When you get this disparity in the cycles, you can get a lot of back and forth until they both turn down.This occurs after year end accounting in Japan ( March 31st)
Aussie..91.30 is Charles’ tgt and the level to watch. Closes above this area can lead to higher price tgt's. The weekly cycles bottom again the beginning of April.
Gold... Hit the tgt of 1142. The daily is up into March 23. The weekly is down.
Sugar...The next weekly low is April 19th with a 19.50 tgt. We'll look for a long around then.Crude...The daily cycles are up into month end when both the daily and the weekly top.
3/8/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow– Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
S&P/Nasdaq
No change
The buy signal continues and cycles are up
We expect to see our upside price targets, as long as the S&P does not close below 1116 and the Nasdaq not below 1845
Sector
Gold continues on a buy signal for a few more weeks
However, Gold did not close yet above our upside price target of 1142
As long as that does not happen, our upside price target of 1187 has not been confirmed
Crude
The buy signal continues
Cycles are up for most of Mar
Keep now a sell stop below 79.50
It seems extreme, but a move to $92 is possible
US Bonds
We are now writing about June Bonds
The 30 and 5 year are on a sell signal, but the 10 year not yet
The 10 year still will have to close below 117
The down move is very slow
There are only a few months to go
We are still trying to go long the 10 year around a yield of 4% but we might not reach it.
Bunds
Bunds continue on a buy signal, as long there is no close below 124
Euro
No change
Still no buy signal
However, as mentioned before, we closed shorts based on the short term cycle low
Aussie
The Aussie reached our upside price target of 91.30, but continues on a buy signal
Cycles are close to a low
A close above 91.30 will probably give higher price targets
Aud/Nzd
We could still see our upside price taget of 133.50
Cycles are topping
A close below 129 will signal that we saw a short term high
Yen
No change
We see some weakness
However, the next short term low in Yen strength, Dollar Yen weakness is in a few days
We are waiting one more time to see strength in order to go short
Longer term cycles topped in Yen strength, and are down until year end
Canadian Dollar
Our price target is still around 101
Based on long term cycles, it can take until July
Short term traders might sell around the short term cycle high around Mar 18
3/3/2010 updates
here is charles N comments, sometime I do not understand, it is impossible for EUR to go 1.40 while AUD and JPY say topped tomorrw, let's seealso see his view of AG futures, wheat and soybean major cycle======================================
Bonds... Charles want to go long the 10 yr. at 4.10 yield for a one year trade.He sees rates higher from here into the summer, then lower yields as a deflationscare sets in for app 1 year, after which the story changes to inflation and rates riseEventual targets 2 -3 years out are 6 1/2%, then the 8-9% level.SPU….The weekly cycle is up into mid AprilGold..Daily cycles are up with a 1140-42 target. This is a high risk trade.The next daily high is the 23 rd. The weekly cycles do not support a sustained move upwith the next quarterly low not coming until Oct. 2010.Copper..The daily cycle is up into March 19th. The weekly cycle is up into late May with a 373 target.Nat Gas... cycles are down until June 2011 with targets of 3.80 and 1.70Crude..The next daily high is March 6th. 78 is the closing breakdown #. The weekly cycles top the 3rd week of March and are down into 2011. After the weekly cycles top mid month, a close below 71.70 will confirm the high of this recent upto the mid 80's for a 1 year down.Wheat/Soybeans...Charles is looking for a major bull to start in a couple of months lasting into May 2013.Euro..There is still time on the daily cycles for the Euro to rally before the weekly tops again.He's looking for the dream sell around 140 eventually targeting 118.Yen...USD/JGY bottoms this week. Charles is looking for a major move to 105 by year end.Aussie..The daily cycles are as follows: the next high is March 3, the following low is March 18, then up into April 6th.Aud/Eur…The weekly bottoms mid March, then cycles are up into July.
3/5/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow – Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
One of our clients - who is much more knowledgeable than we are - is convinced that the market leaders are GS, Apple, and Google
Yesterday, GS gave the expected buy signal, closing above 162.50
Apple gave an upside price target of 222
Google will join, once there is a close above 555
Cycles are up
Markets continue on a buy signal
We did not get confirmed higher price targets
However, one more good up day will confirm the targets, which are:
S&P 1175, which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1107
Nasdaq 1946 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1827
Dow 11,000 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 10,280
Crude
We are still waiting to see if there will be a good close above $80.50
That will lead to higher price targets
Cycles continue up until late March
Sector
Gold corrected after reaching our upside price target of 1142
Cycles are up
The buy signal continues, as long as there is no close below 1111
A good close above 1142 will project to 1187
Nat Gas
Longer term cycles are down until May 2011
Our downside price targets are 3.88 and 1.70
US Bonds
The 10 and 5 year refuse to give a sell signal
Bunds
Bunds should continue up to our price target of 125
A close below 123.80 will be a sell signal
Euro
The positive cycles only seem to lead to an intraday bounce
No change in outlook
Australian Dollar
The fact that the Aussie is holding up with cycles bottoming in few weeks is positive
A move to 91.30 is still possible, as long as there is no close below 89.50
Yen
The Yen reached our upside price target of 88
Weekly cycles topped
However, based on daily cycles, we could see a test of 88
We are still waiting to go short Yen, long Dollar Yen
Wheat/ Beans/ Corn
The sell signal continues
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Stock Stars
1. Buffett lunch: And the winner is...Yongping Duan
Duan Yongping (Chinese: 段永平, Pinyin: Duàn Yǒngpíng), 1961-, is a Chinese electrical engineer, inventor, entrepreneur [1],and philanthropist [2]. He is regarded as an innovative and inspiring business figure in mainland China [3]. He is the founder of both the Subor Electronics Industry Corporation (also the former CEO) and BBK Electronics Group (also the current Chairman).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duan_Yongping
Duan Yongping (Chinese: 段永平, Pinyin: Duàn Yǒngpíng), 1961-, is a Chinese electrical engineer, inventor, entrepreneur [1],and philanthropist [2]. He is regarded as an innovative and inspiring business figure in mainland China [3]. He is the founder of both the Subor Electronics Industry Corporation (also the former CEO) and BBK Electronics Group (also the current Chairman).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duan_Yongping
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