tonight wouldnt be a nice night I don't think after market es crashing down violating my mid red fork midline possible signal a down turn to touch the end of red fork at 1090 area. if crashing below that look out 1072 is the green fork catch. it is scary to view this way but possible this is playing out tonight but make sure to cover quick if this is really playing out tonight.
market crashing down 5:36 PM
look for 200 5:36 PM
for a bounce up 5:36 PM
dont know just scary 5:36 PM
1088 perhaps on es 5:36 PM
if crash tonight 5:36 PM
u can try to short MON 5:37 PM
gosh that one looking to go 52 5:37 PM
as i said down tonight 5:49 PM
buy tomorrow 5:49 PM
they are crazy 5:49 PM
either 1099 or 1072 5:51 PM
on market crash down
if u see 1090-1098 6:25 PM
if holding u can long 6:25 PM
just put stop 6:25 PM
else when u see a crash down 6:25 PM
will be quick 6:25 PM
1072 6:25 PM
or so on es 6:25 PM
1098 first target 6:29 PM
1090 second target 6:29 PM
third target 1077 or 1072 6:29 PM
Tram
5/18/2010 night play
thatis all i got 6:29 PM
i already went in 1113 6:30 PM
so let see 6:30 PM
will stop me at 1116 6:30 PM
if China market brings up the es to 1020, short es 6:37 PM
but when europe market open, cover es that time 6:38 PM
6:56pm es is at 1109.
Charles Comments on 5/18/2010 before the market crash
Stocks
Charles thinks we will hold up for another two weeks, followed by weakness
By mid Jun, he wants to go long again for a few months
Charles has not changed his market view or timing in the equity indexes.
Although he has not played the short side, he saw an interim low yesterday, so he warned those that were playing the short side
to manage their risk.
China still looks weak. He is waiting until the end of June to look for a tradable low when the Spu and the emerging
markets bottom. The max downside he sees right now is a "possible" test of the recent lows. While he sees volatility remaining high, he does not see a lot of downside, rather a more back and forth big range type of trade ( hence the strong Vix, meaning volatility)
Metals and mining stocks... Cycles are not friendly to this sector until the end of June.
Europe is not good, and a strong Dollar vis-à-vis Euro is deflationary
Bonds – Steep yield curve will not be as steep as people think
He called for deflation with Crude being in 140s, when no one else saw it, and he calls it again now for 6-9 month long Bond trade
Profits, P/E, Low rates mean no equity crisis
There will be some big moves over next 18 months
Citigroup – Topping – Short term target hit at 3.78
If breaks, next target under 3
Citigroup cycles down to 2012
Today's german news
===========================================
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 1:21:25 PM
(GE) German Finance Ministry confirms to ban short selling on 10 large German financial companies effective at midnight
- short selling ban would also apply to naked sales of CDS on Euro Govt bonds; and Euro Govt bonds
- Follow Up: Fin Min confirms bans on short selling shares of Aareal Bank, Allianz, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Postbank, Generali Deutschland, Hannover Rueckversicherung, MLP, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft
- Follow up: Finance Ministry reportedly planning to expand ban on naked short selling to all German shares and Euro derivatives that do not serve the purpose of hedging foreign exchange risks
========================================
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 1:06:07 PM
(GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel has reportedly claimed she is in support of the financial transaction (Tobin) tax
- German Fin Min notes that a final decision on a financial transaction tax will ultimately be taken at the June G20 summit; and if a global solution cannot be reached on a transaction tax a European solution may be warranted
2010-05-18 02:52:23 PM qqq There are 4 hours until midnight in Germany. There are trillions in gross sovereign CDS notional. Germany alone had $71.4 billion in Gross CDS notional and $13.3 billion in net according to DTCC. Add up all of Europe and you get half a trillion. How on
2010-05-18 02:52:40 PM qqq How on earth will the German market unwind these with all European traders already long gone. We also make the generous assumption that US CDS traders are still around: most of the BSDs tend to leave for the nearest Marriott Garden Inn by 1pm.
2010-05-18 02:52:55 PM qqq We also make the generous assumption that US CDS traders are still around: most of the BSDs tend to leave for the nearest Marriott Garden Inn by 1pm. So with naked CDS positions now verboten, who will be allowed to sell CDS
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