TRAM:
if the volume over bid or ask 8:09 PM
is high 8:09 PM
price will go to that one 8:09 PM
now 1054 got most volume 8:10 PM
and 1053 8:10 PM
price might go there 8:10 PM
see 1054 8:11 PM
hit 8:11 PM
now see if they want 1053 or not 8:11 PM
whichever side have most volume 8:12 PM
price will go there 8:12 PM
scalping based on bid and ask
because price change too fast 8:21 PM
but during hr liked this 8:21 PM
easier to look at to play that 8:21 PM
see the ask is way high in volume 8:21 PM
price gravitate there 8:21 PM
the other side now got a lot of volume too 8:22 PM
so soon price will come down
when u look at it 8:24 PM
make sure u see the biggest volume ask on what price 8:24 PM
bid is buy and ask is sell
when sell is high 8:27 PM
they will buy it there 8:27 PM
when bid is high 8:27 PM
they will take price there 8:27 PM
that is all 8:27 PM
now is still up 8:27 PM
since bid ask on 1056 and 1057 is high 8:27 PM
keep checking that 8:28 PM
then u know when to be out 8:28 PM
or short 8:28 PM
ot buy 8:28 PM
it should be up though 8:29 PM
an inverted hs 8:45 PM
let me see if target meet on that 8:45 PM
http://screencast.com/t/ZWVjY2ZiMD 8:47 PM
should be around 1058 8:48 PM
as target 8:48 PM
2010年6月9日星期三
2010年5月19日星期三
5/20/2010 Marketview
Tram view after the market close on 5/19/2010 at 7:20pm.
Tonight market range might be a up. If we got an up to 1126,sell it.Max up is 1130.
1123-1130. The down is 1097-1101. This is the range I am seeing to play up down.
Tomorrow MM can just kept on those range all day long.
Now es is in tight range. You can watch to long up down 2 point.
But I think it should be up. So try to play up and buy it now at 1113.50.
Put stop 1112. If we are wrong, get ass kick almost 2 point. But i am right, I want this to go 1126 tonight.I expect an up tonight. Then tomorrow they sell and write down the range i told u.They will want to those between high and low.
Tonight market range might be a up. If we got an up to 1126,sell it.Max up is 1130.
1123-1130. The down is 1097-1101. This is the range I am seeing to play up down.
Tomorrow MM can just kept on those range all day long.
Now es is in tight range. You can watch to long up down 2 point.
But I think it should be up. So try to play up and buy it now at 1113.50.
Put stop 1112. If we are wrong, get ass kick almost 2 point. But i am right, I want this to go 1126 tonight.I expect an up tonight. Then tomorrow they sell and write down the range i told u.They will want to those between high and low.
2010年5月18日星期二
5/19/2010 Market view
Tram view on 5/18/2010 after the market close.
tonight wouldnt be a nice night I don't think after market es crashing down violating my mid red fork midline possible signal a down turn to touch the end of red fork at 1090 area. if crashing below that look out 1072 is the green fork catch. it is scary to view this way but possible this is playing out tonight but make sure to cover quick if this is really playing out tonight.
market crashing down 5:36 PM
look for 200 5:36 PM
for a bounce up 5:36 PM
dont know just scary 5:36 PM
1088 perhaps on es 5:36 PM
if crash tonight 5:36 PM
u can try to short MON 5:37 PM
gosh that one looking to go 52 5:37 PM
as i said down tonight 5:49 PM
buy tomorrow 5:49 PM
they are crazy 5:49 PM
either 1099 or 1072 5:51 PM
on market crash down
if u see 1090-1098 6:25 PM
if holding u can long 6:25 PM
just put stop 6:25 PM
else when u see a crash down 6:25 PM
will be quick 6:25 PM
1072 6:25 PM
or so on es 6:25 PM
1098 first target 6:29 PM
1090 second target 6:29 PM
third target 1077 or 1072 6:29 PM
Tram
5/18/2010 night play
thatis all i got 6:29 PM
i already went in 1113 6:30 PM
so let see 6:30 PM
will stop me at 1116 6:30 PM
if China market brings up the es to 1020, short es 6:37 PM
but when europe market open, cover es that time 6:38 PM
6:56pm es is at 1109.
Charles Comments on 5/18/2010 before the market crash
Stocks
Charles thinks we will hold up for another two weeks, followed by weakness
By mid Jun, he wants to go long again for a few months
Charles has not changed his market view or timing in the equity indexes.
Although he has not played the short side, he saw an interim low yesterday, so he warned those that were playing the short side
to manage their risk.
China still looks weak. He is waiting until the end of June to look for a tradable low when the Spu and the emerging
markets bottom. The max downside he sees right now is a "possible" test of the recent lows. While he sees volatility remaining high, he does not see a lot of downside, rather a more back and forth big range type of trade ( hence the strong Vix, meaning volatility)
Metals and mining stocks... Cycles are not friendly to this sector until the end of June.
Europe is not good, and a strong Dollar vis-à-vis Euro is deflationary
Bonds – Steep yield curve will not be as steep as people think
He called for deflation with Crude being in 140s, when no one else saw it, and he calls it again now for 6-9 month long Bond trade
Profits, P/E, Low rates mean no equity crisis
There will be some big moves over next 18 months
Citigroup – Topping – Short term target hit at 3.78
If breaks, next target under 3
Citigroup cycles down to 2012
Today's german news
===========================================
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 1:21:25 PM
(GE) German Finance Ministry confirms to ban short selling on 10 large German financial companies effective at midnight
- short selling ban would also apply to naked sales of CDS on Euro Govt bonds; and Euro Govt bonds
- Follow Up: Fin Min confirms bans on short selling shares of Aareal Bank, Allianz, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Postbank, Generali Deutschland, Hannover Rueckversicherung, MLP, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft
- Follow up: Finance Ministry reportedly planning to expand ban on naked short selling to all German shares and Euro derivatives that do not serve the purpose of hedging foreign exchange risks
========================================
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 1:06:07 PM
(GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel has reportedly claimed she is in support of the financial transaction (Tobin) tax
- German Fin Min notes that a final decision on a financial transaction tax will ultimately be taken at the June G20 summit; and if a global solution cannot be reached on a transaction tax a European solution may be warranted
2010-05-18 02:52:23 PM qqq There are 4 hours until midnight in Germany. There are trillions in gross sovereign CDS notional. Germany alone had $71.4 billion in Gross CDS notional and $13.3 billion in net according to DTCC. Add up all of Europe and you get half a trillion. How on
2010-05-18 02:52:40 PM qqq How on earth will the German market unwind these with all European traders already long gone. We also make the generous assumption that US CDS traders are still around: most of the BSDs tend to leave for the nearest Marriott Garden Inn by 1pm.
2010-05-18 02:52:55 PM qqq We also make the generous assumption that US CDS traders are still around: most of the BSDs tend to leave for the nearest Marriott Garden Inn by 1pm. So with naked CDS positions now verboten, who will be allowed to sell CDS
tonight wouldnt be a nice night I don't think after market es crashing down violating my mid red fork midline possible signal a down turn to touch the end of red fork at 1090 area. if crashing below that look out 1072 is the green fork catch. it is scary to view this way but possible this is playing out tonight but make sure to cover quick if this is really playing out tonight.
market crashing down 5:36 PM
look for 200 5:36 PM
for a bounce up 5:36 PM
dont know just scary 5:36 PM
1088 perhaps on es 5:36 PM
if crash tonight 5:36 PM
u can try to short MON 5:37 PM
gosh that one looking to go 52 5:37 PM
as i said down tonight 5:49 PM
buy tomorrow 5:49 PM
they are crazy 5:49 PM
either 1099 or 1072 5:51 PM
on market crash down
if u see 1090-1098 6:25 PM
if holding u can long 6:25 PM
just put stop 6:25 PM
else when u see a crash down 6:25 PM
will be quick 6:25 PM
1072 6:25 PM
or so on es 6:25 PM
1098 first target 6:29 PM
1090 second target 6:29 PM
third target 1077 or 1072 6:29 PM
Tram
5/18/2010 night play
thatis all i got 6:29 PM
i already went in 1113 6:30 PM
so let see 6:30 PM
will stop me at 1116 6:30 PM
if China market brings up the es to 1020, short es 6:37 PM
but when europe market open, cover es that time 6:38 PM
6:56pm es is at 1109.
Charles Comments on 5/18/2010 before the market crash
Stocks
Charles thinks we will hold up for another two weeks, followed by weakness
By mid Jun, he wants to go long again for a few months
Charles has not changed his market view or timing in the equity indexes.
Although he has not played the short side, he saw an interim low yesterday, so he warned those that were playing the short side
to manage their risk.
China still looks weak. He is waiting until the end of June to look for a tradable low when the Spu and the emerging
markets bottom. The max downside he sees right now is a "possible" test of the recent lows. While he sees volatility remaining high, he does not see a lot of downside, rather a more back and forth big range type of trade ( hence the strong Vix, meaning volatility)
Metals and mining stocks... Cycles are not friendly to this sector until the end of June.
Europe is not good, and a strong Dollar vis-à-vis Euro is deflationary
Bonds – Steep yield curve will not be as steep as people think
He called for deflation with Crude being in 140s, when no one else saw it, and he calls it again now for 6-9 month long Bond trade
Profits, P/E, Low rates mean no equity crisis
There will be some big moves over next 18 months
Citigroup – Topping – Short term target hit at 3.78
If breaks, next target under 3
Citigroup cycles down to 2012
Today's german news
===========================================
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 1:21:25 PM
(GE) German Finance Ministry confirms to ban short selling on 10 large German financial companies effective at midnight
- short selling ban would also apply to naked sales of CDS on Euro Govt bonds; and Euro Govt bonds
- Follow Up: Fin Min confirms bans on short selling shares of Aareal Bank, Allianz, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Postbank, Generali Deutschland, Hannover Rueckversicherung, MLP, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft
- Follow up: Finance Ministry reportedly planning to expand ban on naked short selling to all German shares and Euro derivatives that do not serve the purpose of hedging foreign exchange risks
========================================
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 1:06:07 PM
(GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel has reportedly claimed she is in support of the financial transaction (Tobin) tax
- German Fin Min notes that a final decision on a financial transaction tax will ultimately be taken at the June G20 summit; and if a global solution cannot be reached on a transaction tax a European solution may be warranted
2010-05-18 02:52:23 PM qqq There are 4 hours until midnight in Germany. There are trillions in gross sovereign CDS notional. Germany alone had $71.4 billion in Gross CDS notional and $13.3 billion in net according to DTCC. Add up all of Europe and you get half a trillion. How on
2010-05-18 02:52:40 PM qqq How on earth will the German market unwind these with all European traders already long gone. We also make the generous assumption that US CDS traders are still around: most of the BSDs tend to leave for the nearest Marriott Garden Inn by 1pm.
2010-05-18 02:52:55 PM qqq We also make the generous assumption that US CDS traders are still around: most of the BSDs tend to leave for the nearest Marriott Garden Inn by 1pm. So with naked CDS positions now verboten, who will be allowed to sell CDS
2010年5月16日星期日
5/17/2010 view
Tram view:
Tram (7:54 PM): ok holding 1130
Tram (7:54 PM): it will try to go 1140 area
Tram (7:54 PM): if not holding 1130
Tram (7:54 PM): look below
Tram (7:54 PM): that is all
Tram (7:54 PM): 1120 or 1110
Tram (7:54 PM): target down if loss 1130
Tram (7:54 PM): if holding 1130 first target 1140
Tram (7:54 PM): if stronger 1150-1160 possible
Tram (7:54 PM): ok holding 1130
Tram (7:54 PM): it will try to go 1140 area
Tram (7:54 PM): if not holding 1130
Tram (7:54 PM): look below
Tram (7:54 PM): that is all
Tram (7:54 PM): 1120 or 1110
Tram (7:54 PM): target down if loss 1130
Tram (7:54 PM): if holding 1130 first target 1140
Tram (7:54 PM): if stronger 1150-1160 possible
2010年5月11日星期二
5/10/2010 Investment House Daily
* * * *
5/10/2010 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: APA; AKAM; FCX; IRBT; SSYS; THS
Trailing stops: VMW
Stop alerts: ARIA; MCHP
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SUMMARY:
- A new plan for Greece . . . and every other EU country facing "financial uncertainty" . . . using quantitative easing bounces world markets to a huge rally.
- $1T bailout plan reverses all the recent trades, but some more so than others, and surprisingly so.
- Indices clear the January peaks to close just below the 50 day EMA.
- Fed joins in the action to help Europe with its quantitative easing, and at the same time quietly plans 'tests' to exit the US quantitative easing game.
- Will quantitative easing work with Europe's debt issues as it did with the US' financial issues? Will throwing other people's money at a socialist country's problems solve the problem of running out of other people's money?
- FRE was first and now FNM asks for more money from the bottomless trough.
- Impressive resumption of the rally or just a massive short covering, oversold bounce?
A new, massive bailout plan, and another, this time massive, upside rally.
It has been a running joke with the various 'new' plans for bailing out Greece, the subsequent market rally on the day of the announcement, and then the selloff the next session. The joke may just be a private one, but it has had the same punch line, that harsh selloff following. Monday brought, as we somewhat expected, an ECB move to quantitative easing, but the sheer size and scope of the new bailout trumped anything placed on the table before. 500B euro from the EU, 250B from the IMF totaling $962B for any EU country facing 'financial uncertainty.' Nothing like going all in. The ECB even got the US Fed involved as the Fed re-opened swap lines with Canadian, UK, and EU banks to facilitate the flow of funds. Recall that LIBOR jumped to 0.43 on Friday as banks were refusing to lend to one another again, fearing someone was going to blow up. Monday after the new bailout announcement LIBOR fell to 0.42; high praise indeed for the new European bailout plan as banks take a wait and see approach.
The 'all in' approach was certainly not meant as a joke and the world markets did not take it as such, at least on Monday. After all there were leading economists saying that this plan had to work. Why? Well, the main argument was that it showed the EU and ECB would do whatever it takes to solve the problem similar to the US Fed's actions in late 2008 on into 2009. As for me, well, it is simpler: it has to work because if it doesn't that means there is simply nothing the EU/ECB can do to stop the collapse. Don't want to get into trouble with the Administration given its statements Sunday about all of the information from the internet, etc. especially with the Fed now being involved in the European crisis solution, but frankly this looks like another famous battle Europe has experienced, i.e. the German last ditch winter offensive known as the Battle of the Bulge. Germany was losing the war and went against convention in launching a major winter offensive. It almost worked . . . but in the end it did not. Hopefully this gambit will have more success. In any event, regardless of any skeptics, the world markets preferred to look at the positive aspects with the US indices rallying 4.4% (SP500) to 4.8% (NASDAQ) to 5.2% (SP600).
OTHER MARKETS.
The fear trade controlling the markets last week reversed on Monday as shorts had to cover in what was a massive upside surge in the first 15 minutes. All of the index gains were logged in that short span as the indices spent the rest of the day in a narrow lateral range. As the stock markets surged, the other markets that surged last week on the European woes reversed, at least for the day. Even so, as stocks held near their highs on the session, the other markets came off their lows in a rather impressive manner. In short, they were down on the session but they were not buying the story that this trillion dollar bailout was the answer to all the troubles.
Dollar. Of course the dollar gapped lower against the euro, trading at 1.2900 pre-market versus the 1.2732 Friday close that was itself well off the sub-1.27 trades Thursday. By the close, however, the dollar recovered to 1.2800 euro. These big moves are becoming commonplace and that in itself shows the turmoil in the world markets. As for the dollar index, a tap at the 18 day EMA and then a reversal to close near the session high. Lower yes, but near the session high nonetheless.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Gold. Gold closed lower (1206.60, -8.80), but well off the sub-1200 levels hit pre-market. Gold tapped its 10 day EMA on the low and reversed the majority of its losses. What does that mean? It means gold is in a great base, it tested its Thursday breakout over 1200, and it has held. The pattern tells the story of the strength: this is a 5 month base that has laid the foundation of a move higher. It is not easily trashed, and indeed with the huge stock moves on the supposed salvation of Europe, gold was rather nonchalant with a very normal test of a strong breakout.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Bonds. The US bond market was on a wild tear given Euruope's woes and the money hemorrhaging from its stock and bond markets. Monday the US bonds took their licks as Europe rebounded with the 10 year bond yield rising to 3.54% from 3.42% as the safety trade was not as large a factor Monday. Bonds recovered from their opening lows as well, however (3.58%), as bonds found some buyers even after the news out of Europe and the ECB. Not everyone was buying that the Europeans can solve their troubles by throwing cash at it, and thus bonds recovered off their lows.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tip.jpeg
Oil. Oil found some life, at least a little life, after a week where it gushed losses similar to the BP well offshore gushing uncontrolled barrels. After breaking below its 200 day SMA Friday oil managed to fight back above that level (77.29, +2.18). Those gains, however, were well off the intraday highs and oil hardly looks as if it wants to surge back up at this point.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
The internals posted strong upside gains Monday in contrast to sharp downside readings last week. Was this the response that ends the wild volatility in the numbers and sets the market on the path to gains again? Could be, but frankly, this kind of wild volatility in these numbers, in the market prices, and in the other markets outside stocks suggests this chapter is not closed.
Breadth. Big once more, this time in the other direction. NASDAQ breadth 7:1, NYSE 10:1. Upside. The bulls and the bears are still tilting at one another.
Volume. Volume was far from light, but compared to last week's downside trade volume was child's play, down 32% to 2.7B on NASDAQ and off 13% to 1.8B on NYSE. Both still easily above average and not paltry, just not the strength of the selling. That is not necessarily a negative: trade was so massive on the selling it simply could not possible keep up the pace even if Monday turned out negative. Of course that is not necessarily true: if the selling continued there might indeed be a massive high volume reversal. As it was, the ECB's and EU's actions pre-empted any further selling attempt and a possible 'real' bottom to the selling versus trying to forestall more downside.
CHARTS
SP500. Rallied back through the January peak close to the 50 day EMA, fading modestly to close below that level. The January peak was important given the ECB news trumped any further test down to the February low. For now the next serious test is upside as the index bumps the 50 day EMA and the mid-March consolidation with a peak at 1173 closing.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped through its January peak, coming to rest below the 50 day EMA and its mid-March consolidation range (2417) as well. As with SP500, the European news jumped it off the 200 day SMA without a further test toward the February low. Not necessarily unexpected i.e. a bounce off the 200 day, but the strength was more than expected, aided by that positive news. Now the next test is the 50 day EMA (2400) and that mid-March peak to gauge what strength there is on this move.
SP600. The small caps held their January peak and moved through the mid-March consolidation range. Of course they were the leaders and thus were in better shape after the selling. Indeed a 5% gain was market leading outside SOX. While Europe was the focus and small caps are not necessarily responsive to foreign markets, the idea that Europe won't be dragging the US lower of course helped those stocks.
SOX. A big percentage gain for chips but they are still below the January peak. A solid bounce off the 200 day SMA for sure, but now a big test with that prior high.
LEADERSHIP
Stocks across the board snapped back from last week's selling. Recall that all were down uniformly (the almost identical 3.3% losses) and thus the rebounds were strong and across the board. There are stocks that are in good position to move higher as we see on the report, but there are not large swaths of stocks from a sector that are all ready to move upside together. The market has been sold and fragmented with leadership coming from various sectors but just a stock or two from those sectors.
There are also those sectors that were smacked around before last week's selloff and are ready to roll upside. These include many metals and energy stocks. Those continue to look good for rebounds, but as for leadership, they are not ready to break to new highs anytime soon.
Many other areas are rebounding, but they need work after some serious damage occurred during the selling. For example, industrials are up but they are not in great patterns. Retail bounced back, but it too is questionable if it can resume its pace. It had run far, started to falter, but is recovering. Some are in worse shape, others still holding the 50 day EMA.
In sum, leadership has been under fire after a long run higher. Many leadership groups are still above their 50 day EMA but that does not mean they are in position to buy. Some more consolidation could make the difference, but time to base is the key. At the same time there are still good stocks in good patterns, but they are fragmented and fewer. After a good surge that is not unusual.
THE ECONOMY
Quantitative easing, European style.
The ECB is talking buying EU bonds as did the US Fed in order to keep rates low despite market forces surging them higher as well as to provide liquidity so that the European financial markets can operate.
Sounds good and it worked in the US, at least with respect to forestalling a slide off the cliff. Can the same type of action, i.e. buying securities, solve the EU's problems? In part yes, as the move will foster liquidity when the markets start to lock up because no one wants to interact. In part, perhaps no because the issues in the US in 2008 were financial institutions not trusting one another due to the crap they had on their books in the form of sub-prime mortgage garbage that was basically worthless, at least according to the financial rules of the time that required them to value all their assets at that one point in time versus over time as you would normally do for longer term investments such as mortgages.
In Europe, however, the problem is massive government debt where the debt trumps any hopes that growth can possibly offset or pay back what is owed. Given the relatively low GDP output of European countries versus the US, it is even more difficult to see the payoff so to speak of the debt. In other words, it is not just trying to fix illiquidity based upon banks not wanting to loan to one another. That can be resolved once confidence is restored. The markets can then work. What Europe is trying to do is create a stable environment where Greek can theoretically operate and work to reduce its debt to GDP ratio. That is not just a matter of restoring lending between financial institutions. That is a major overhaul of the way the country does business, how it governs itself, and how it provides the pensions that its entire workforce, private or government, expects to receive. Short of a complete redirecting of Greece's economy, it won't be accomplished.
After Greece there are Spain, Portugal and Ireland as critical economies falling into the 'financial uncertainty' category. They face Greece's problem. Again, it is not a matter of restoring confidence in the banking system so that financial institutions lend between one another and then lend money to business and consumers. Just look how long it took lenders to re-engage in lending in the US; it STILL is not where it should be. These other countries, as with Greece, have to effectively alter their structure away from government as the benefactor to encouraging more enterprise to spur growth and thus economic recovery at a level that can reduce the debt to GDP ratio. Cutting government subsidies and handouts while encouraging entrepreneurship in countries that have not been the cradle of enterprise for many decades. A very, very tall order.
US to conduct 'tests' to sell MBS.
On the same date the Fed said it would reinstitute swap lines with various foreign banks around the world to assist in providing the liquidity needed to make the EU/ECB plans work, the Fed also announced it would conduct 'tests' of bond sales in mid-June to see if it can start unloading its $1.25T of mortgage backed securities (MBS) it holds as a result of its quantitative easing operations.
That should have the effect of raising interest rates as it sends bond prices lower. Of course, this is EXACTLY what the Fed said it was going to do a couple of months back that started bonds on their slide lower. It is inevitable. The Fed HAS to tighten up the money at some point or risk a European style jump in interest rates.
Problem is, it was working in bringing rates up (just the talk of this) but then Greece and the EU came along and bonds reversed course and rallied. This was while everyone thought Greece was a non-issue and that that US was going to raise rates due to the stronger US economic numbers. BUT, bonds reversed and surged higher. Well, we now know why the US bonds rallied: Greece was falling off the table as everyone whistled past the graveyard. Another massive bond rally resulted.
Okay, now we are back to the same place we were a couple of months back. The Fed says it is going to run 'tests' just as it said back in March. The EU is supposed to be under control because they are throwing ('they' is a loose term; it also includes the US as part of the IMF) $1T at the problem. Yes, the same situation as back in March. US rates should start to rise, EU rates should lower, the euro should appreciate, and LIBOR should reverse its rise.
We will see if US rates rise appreciably. Yes the Fed might want to raise rates, but the EU woes may prevent it from doing so just yet. EU rates should fall, but that presumes confidence in the system such that money moves back into European bonds. That is definitely a wait and see. The euro did bounce Monday, but the charts still show 1.13 dollars is a key level it can fall to, and frankly 0.99 (basically par) is a real support level. LIBOR? It was down a tick to 0.42 from 0.43 hit Friday. It more than doubled from 0.21 in a month. Monday it was showing the smallest possible move in Europe's favor that it could.
Okay, that is a long way getting back to the US running these tests. The Fed wants to unload all that it bought and it thought the stronger economic data would give it cover. Then Europe went crazy and the Fed had to put it off. Now it is hoping for June. Yes as Andy Dufresne said in 'Shawshank Redemption,' hope is a good thing, but in economics and markets, hope rhymes with dope.
FNM seeks $8.4B more money after yet another loss.
Last week FRE asked for $10.6B after it posted yet another loss. In the past 18 months FRE has lost more money than it made in the prior thirty years. Now its sister is asking for more money as well, though at a mere $8.4B it looks as if it is the cautious, careful one. We are running the numbers on FNM to see how much it has lost in the past 18 months and comparing that to what it has made in its prior thirty years.
Will it get it? You bet. FRE and FNM are protected entities under TARP. Congress approved "unlimited" bailout funds for these two entities, basically citing national security as the reason. Mismanage trillions of dollars in assets, play a major role in setting the US economy on the brink of collapse, and get rewarded with unlimited funding. While the Congress is about to give itself the power to chop up any private company it deems as too successful for the country's supposed good, it is allowing the two entities it runs to grow ever larger. Understandable; these are the companies that congressional retirees go to in order to earn millions after they 'serve' in Congress.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 28.84; -12.11
VXN: 30.36; -11.16
VXO: 26.59; -12.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.02; -0.2
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 56.0% up from 54.0%. Highest on this move and it coincided with problems elsewhere. Still below the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but again, with the other factors it was high enough. Many more bulls than in February, but they are not running away with the market and thus the market continues to rally. Not that this is a 'Green Zone' of safety; it is a level that can still spark a selloff as seen early this year. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. Over the 35% threshold level below suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 18.7%. Rising from 18.0% as the bears were worried more even as bulls turned more bullish. A pretty sharp decline in bears, well off the 27.8% level on the high of this leg in February and heading toward the 15% level that is bearish for the market. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Heading back toward the 16%ish on the lows of the leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +109.03 points (+4.81%) to close at 2374.67
Volume: 2.734B (-32.55%)
Up Volume: 2.615B (+2.244B)
Down Volume: 198.351M (-3.53B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 7.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.45 to 1
New Highs: 37 (+18)
New Lows: 14 (-71)
NASDAQ CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +48.85 points (+4.4%) to close at 1159.73
NYSE Volume: 1.858B (-13.4%)
Up Volume: 1.797B (+1.438B)
Down Volume: 60.895M (-1.986B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 9.85 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.33 to 1
New Highs: 104 (+26)
New Lows: 21 (-77)
SP500 CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +404.71 points (+3.9%) to close at 10785.14
Volume DJ30: 313M shares Monday versus 428M shares Friday.
DJ30 CHART: www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
TUESDAY
The obvious question is whether the Monday rebound was an oversold bound fostered by short covering or the return of buying. Yes perhaps the $1T thrown at the EU bad children can calm the markets, but at the same time the Fed is saying it has to raise rates one way or the other. The latter has the natural tendency to pressure stock markets that have been, since the March 2009 bottom (for most stocks), driven by massive amounts of free money in the US (at least free for the banks). The banks can borrow for nothing, then lend for 2% to 5+%, pocketing the difference has 'hard earned profits.' Wish I had that job. Even so, they are still balking at leading to businesses, particularly small businesses. Ending the free money will only make it harder for the small guys to get the money they need to operate. What will helicopter Ben do?
Near term he appears committed to start sopping up the excess liquidity before interest rates get out of hand and go the Greece route. Of course that is just part of the equation: the federal government's spending is much more serious, and Bernanke pointed out two weeks back the government had to limit its entitlement spending or else. Of course everyone in Congress was listening intently. It is always a case of 'he is 100% right as long as it is someone else's entitlements getting cut and not those I count on to elect me.' So the odds of getting anything accomplished other than the Fed raising rates and selling bonds? Zero percent.
But I am acting as if our low rates are the only issue. The financial markets gave their kneejerk reaction to the $1T shock and awe package by the EU/ECB. Of course as with the original shock and awe, it was impressive, but it didn't really do the trick. It's just a little bit of history repeating . . . though on the financial stage versus the war stage.
Day one belonged to the buyers. Now we see the real story. We see if those LIBOR rates that barely budged tell the story or if the markets believe the world central banks can buy their way out of this one as well. Hey, it has worked for 50 years of free-spending, why would they change their views now? I hate to say it is different this time, but what is really different, the fact that we have been successful buying our way out of jams with cheaper money or that in the longer term history these kind of attempts to print your way out of financial malfeasance have ended very badly? There was a book by Dean Koontz (after I read two of his books I realized I had read ALL of his books as they are all the same) with the premise that if you changed history, history tried really hard to get back to the way it was supposed to be and the more you changed it the more it tried to get back to equilibrium. It makes sense applied to this situation: the more we have tried to mortgage our way out of jams, hoping for great growth to bail us out, the more market forces work to bring you back to the mean. Remember when Charlie Brown didn't do his homework and he was praying for the bell to ring so he didn't get found out he failed to write his report? The bell did ring, he was saved for the day, but instead of going home and doing the report he skipped out to play baseball. The point: even if we get lucky and get bailed out as what happened in the late 1990's and 2000's, our leaders won't change. Thus no matter what happens we ultimately get skewered.
Okay, maybe that is too pessimistic, but as the discussion in the 'Economy' section noted, the EU is effectively trying to change the natural course of socialism (running out of other people's money) by throwing other people's money at the problem. That money will be gone as well and the problem won't be solved. As the US moves toward a European model then there won't be the usual US treasure chest to raid for needed cash either.
But again I digress. The near term action deals with the indices and this bounce up to the 50 day EMA. They cleared the January peak, a necessary first step. It is very possible they can, given the nature of the selloff, recover from here after putting in a knifepoint turn. Indeed they made the turn and now they simply have to show they can continue rising, taking out the 50 day EMA.
While, as noted above, there are many undercurrents of intrigue with respect to Europe, what the Fed will do, etc., the market action tells the tale. Right now the market is trying to regroup and pick a trend after massive volatility and a massive selloff. I say 'after' massive volatility, but as demonstrated Monday, that is hardly the case: massive down, massive up as volatility is still the name of the game despite the 30% drop in the VIX Monday.
With that volatility the ultimate direction is still up for grabs. We saw some stocks we bird-dogged over the weekend make the moves we wanted Monday, so we bought them. They will either work or not. If so we let them ride. If the indices run out of gas at the 50 day EMA or even beyond, then we are ready to pick up some downside plays again as well and closing our upside if their action suggests that is the case. The market is in no trend now though there are good play setups; because the trend is broken, however, they are not that prevalent. We are looking at those that are in good position, but we are also really looking at stocks that sold off ahead of last week's meltdown, held or slightly undercut support, and are heading back up.
At the same time we have to watch if this massive bounce is just a relief move similar to the time the Fed cut rates in early 2001 after it trashed the market with too many hikes and too little liquidity in 2000. The market surged massively on the rate cut; nirvana for sure. Then the market rolled over and was pummeled again. The rate cut was just one idea that was needed; it was not the answer. $1T is a lot of money, except of course if you are the US Congress. Even so, can it change the EU's problems and prevent a collapse of the smaller EU players? We will get the market's reaction, and if the answer is 'no' then we will have some more downside plays at the ready to take advantage of a roll back to the downside.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2374.67
Resistance:
2382-2395 from 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2400
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak
2535 is the April 2010 peak
2546 from July 2007, February 2007, November 2007: a level touched many times as a high and low.
2725-2730 from the July 2007 and May 2009 peaks
Support:
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
The 200 day SMA at 2207
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1159.73
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1167
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
1214 is the first April peak, 1220 is the second high.
1240 is the key July 2008 interim low.
1293 from a March 2008 low
1298 is the November 2008 rebound high that made a lower high. Also part of the Q1 2008 double bottom.
Support:
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1096
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
Dow: Closed at 10,785.14
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 10,824
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,201
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 11 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, March (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% prior
May 12 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, March (08:30): -$40.0B expected, -$39.7B prior
Crude Inventories, 05/08 (10:30): 2.75M prior
Treasury Budget, April (14:00): -$20.0B expected, -$20.9B prior
May 13 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 05/08 (08:30): 440K expected, 444K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/08 (08:30): 4590K expected, 4594K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., April (08:30): 0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, April (08:30): 0.2% prior
May 14 - Friday
Retail Sales, April (08:30): 0.2% expected, 1.9% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, April (08:30): 0.5% expected, 0.9% prior
Capacity Utilization, April (09:15): 73.8% expected, 73.2% prior
Industrial Production, April (09:15): 0.6% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, May (09:55): 73.5 expected, 72.2 prior
Business Inventories, March (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
End part 1 of 3
5/10/2010 Investment House Daily
* * * *
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SUMMARY:
- A new plan for Greece . . . and every other EU country facing "financial uncertainty" . . . using quantitative easing bounces world markets to a huge rally.
- $1T bailout plan reverses all the recent trades, but some more so than others, and surprisingly so.
- Indices clear the January peaks to close just below the 50 day EMA.
- Fed joins in the action to help Europe with its quantitative easing, and at the same time quietly plans 'tests' to exit the US quantitative easing game.
- Will quantitative easing work with Europe's debt issues as it did with the US' financial issues? Will throwing other people's money at a socialist country's problems solve the problem of running out of other people's money?
- FRE was first and now FNM asks for more money from the bottomless trough.
- Impressive resumption of the rally or just a massive short covering, oversold bounce?
A new, massive bailout plan, and another, this time massive, upside rally.
It has been a running joke with the various 'new' plans for bailing out Greece, the subsequent market rally on the day of the announcement, and then the selloff the next session. The joke may just be a private one, but it has had the same punch line, that harsh selloff following. Monday brought, as we somewhat expected, an ECB move to quantitative easing, but the sheer size and scope of the new bailout trumped anything placed on the table before. 500B euro from the EU, 250B from the IMF totaling $962B for any EU country facing 'financial uncertainty.' Nothing like going all in. The ECB even got the US Fed involved as the Fed re-opened swap lines with Canadian, UK, and EU banks to facilitate the flow of funds. Recall that LIBOR jumped to 0.43 on Friday as banks were refusing to lend to one another again, fearing someone was going to blow up. Monday after the new bailout announcement LIBOR fell to 0.42; high praise indeed for the new European bailout plan as banks take a wait and see approach.
The 'all in' approach was certainly not meant as a joke and the world markets did not take it as such, at least on Monday. After all there were leading economists saying that this plan had to work. Why? Well, the main argument was that it showed the EU and ECB would do whatever it takes to solve the problem similar to the US Fed's actions in late 2008 on into 2009. As for me, well, it is simpler: it has to work because if it doesn't that means there is simply nothing the EU/ECB can do to stop the collapse. Don't want to get into trouble with the Administration given its statements Sunday about all of the information from the internet, etc. especially with the Fed now being involved in the European crisis solution, but frankly this looks like another famous battle Europe has experienced, i.e. the German last ditch winter offensive known as the Battle of the Bulge. Germany was losing the war and went against convention in launching a major winter offensive. It almost worked . . . but in the end it did not. Hopefully this gambit will have more success. In any event, regardless of any skeptics, the world markets preferred to look at the positive aspects with the US indices rallying 4.4% (SP500) to 4.8% (NASDAQ) to 5.2% (SP600).
OTHER MARKETS.
The fear trade controlling the markets last week reversed on Monday as shorts had to cover in what was a massive upside surge in the first 15 minutes. All of the index gains were logged in that short span as the indices spent the rest of the day in a narrow lateral range. As the stock markets surged, the other markets that surged last week on the European woes reversed, at least for the day. Even so, as stocks held near their highs on the session, the other markets came off their lows in a rather impressive manner. In short, they were down on the session but they were not buying the story that this trillion dollar bailout was the answer to all the troubles.
Dollar. Of course the dollar gapped lower against the euro, trading at 1.2900 pre-market versus the 1.2732 Friday close that was itself well off the sub-1.27 trades Thursday. By the close, however, the dollar recovered to 1.2800 euro. These big moves are becoming commonplace and that in itself shows the turmoil in the world markets. As for the dollar index, a tap at the 18 day EMA and then a reversal to close near the session high. Lower yes, but near the session high nonetheless.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Gold. Gold closed lower (1206.60, -8.80), but well off the sub-1200 levels hit pre-market. Gold tapped its 10 day EMA on the low and reversed the majority of its losses. What does that mean? It means gold is in a great base, it tested its Thursday breakout over 1200, and it has held. The pattern tells the story of the strength: this is a 5 month base that has laid the foundation of a move higher. It is not easily trashed, and indeed with the huge stock moves on the supposed salvation of Europe, gold was rather nonchalant with a very normal test of a strong breakout.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Bonds. The US bond market was on a wild tear given Euruope's woes and the money hemorrhaging from its stock and bond markets. Monday the US bonds took their licks as Europe rebounded with the 10 year bond yield rising to 3.54% from 3.42% as the safety trade was not as large a factor Monday. Bonds recovered from their opening lows as well, however (3.58%), as bonds found some buyers even after the news out of Europe and the ECB. Not everyone was buying that the Europeans can solve their troubles by throwing cash at it, and thus bonds recovered off their lows.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tip.jpeg
Oil. Oil found some life, at least a little life, after a week where it gushed losses similar to the BP well offshore gushing uncontrolled barrels. After breaking below its 200 day SMA Friday oil managed to fight back above that level (77.29, +2.18). Those gains, however, were well off the intraday highs and oil hardly looks as if it wants to surge back up at this point.
investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
The internals posted strong upside gains Monday in contrast to sharp downside readings last week. Was this the response that ends the wild volatility in the numbers and sets the market on the path to gains again? Could be, but frankly, this kind of wild volatility in these numbers, in the market prices, and in the other markets outside stocks suggests this chapter is not closed.
Breadth. Big once more, this time in the other direction. NASDAQ breadth 7:1, NYSE 10:1. Upside. The bulls and the bears are still tilting at one another.
Volume. Volume was far from light, but compared to last week's downside trade volume was child's play, down 32% to 2.7B on NASDAQ and off 13% to 1.8B on NYSE. Both still easily above average and not paltry, just not the strength of the selling. That is not necessarily a negative: trade was so massive on the selling it simply could not possible keep up the pace even if Monday turned out negative. Of course that is not necessarily true: if the selling continued there might indeed be a massive high volume reversal. As it was, the ECB's and EU's actions pre-empted any further selling attempt and a possible 'real' bottom to the selling versus trying to forestall more downside.
CHARTS
SP500. Rallied back through the January peak close to the 50 day EMA, fading modestly to close below that level. The January peak was important given the ECB news trumped any further test down to the February low. For now the next serious test is upside as the index bumps the 50 day EMA and the mid-March consolidation with a peak at 1173 closing.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped through its January peak, coming to rest below the 50 day EMA and its mid-March consolidation range (2417) as well. As with SP500, the European news jumped it off the 200 day SMA without a further test toward the February low. Not necessarily unexpected i.e. a bounce off the 200 day, but the strength was more than expected, aided by that positive news. Now the next test is the 50 day EMA (2400) and that mid-March peak to gauge what strength there is on this move.
SP600. The small caps held their January peak and moved through the mid-March consolidation range. Of course they were the leaders and thus were in better shape after the selling. Indeed a 5% gain was market leading outside SOX. While Europe was the focus and small caps are not necessarily responsive to foreign markets, the idea that Europe won't be dragging the US lower of course helped those stocks.
SOX. A big percentage gain for chips but they are still below the January peak. A solid bounce off the 200 day SMA for sure, but now a big test with that prior high.
LEADERSHIP
Stocks across the board snapped back from last week's selling. Recall that all were down uniformly (the almost identical 3.3% losses) and thus the rebounds were strong and across the board. There are stocks that are in good position to move higher as we see on the report, but there are not large swaths of stocks from a sector that are all ready to move upside together. The market has been sold and fragmented with leadership coming from various sectors but just a stock or two from those sectors.
There are also those sectors that were smacked around before last week's selloff and are ready to roll upside. These include many metals and energy stocks. Those continue to look good for rebounds, but as for leadership, they are not ready to break to new highs anytime soon.
Many other areas are rebounding, but they need work after some serious damage occurred during the selling. For example, industrials are up but they are not in great patterns. Retail bounced back, but it too is questionable if it can resume its pace. It had run far, started to falter, but is recovering. Some are in worse shape, others still holding the 50 day EMA.
In sum, leadership has been under fire after a long run higher. Many leadership groups are still above their 50 day EMA but that does not mean they are in position to buy. Some more consolidation could make the difference, but time to base is the key. At the same time there are still good stocks in good patterns, but they are fragmented and fewer. After a good surge that is not unusual.
THE ECONOMY
Quantitative easing, European style.
The ECB is talking buying EU bonds as did the US Fed in order to keep rates low despite market forces surging them higher as well as to provide liquidity so that the European financial markets can operate.
Sounds good and it worked in the US, at least with respect to forestalling a slide off the cliff. Can the same type of action, i.e. buying securities, solve the EU's problems? In part yes, as the move will foster liquidity when the markets start to lock up because no one wants to interact. In part, perhaps no because the issues in the US in 2008 were financial institutions not trusting one another due to the crap they had on their books in the form of sub-prime mortgage garbage that was basically worthless, at least according to the financial rules of the time that required them to value all their assets at that one point in time versus over time as you would normally do for longer term investments such as mortgages.
In Europe, however, the problem is massive government debt where the debt trumps any hopes that growth can possibly offset or pay back what is owed. Given the relatively low GDP output of European countries versus the US, it is even more difficult to see the payoff so to speak of the debt. In other words, it is not just trying to fix illiquidity based upon banks not wanting to loan to one another. That can be resolved once confidence is restored. The markets can then work. What Europe is trying to do is create a stable environment where Greek can theoretically operate and work to reduce its debt to GDP ratio. That is not just a matter of restoring lending between financial institutions. That is a major overhaul of the way the country does business, how it governs itself, and how it provides the pensions that its entire workforce, private or government, expects to receive. Short of a complete redirecting of Greece's economy, it won't be accomplished.
After Greece there are Spain, Portugal and Ireland as critical economies falling into the 'financial uncertainty' category. They face Greece's problem. Again, it is not a matter of restoring confidence in the banking system so that financial institutions lend between one another and then lend money to business and consumers. Just look how long it took lenders to re-engage in lending in the US; it STILL is not where it should be. These other countries, as with Greece, have to effectively alter their structure away from government as the benefactor to encouraging more enterprise to spur growth and thus economic recovery at a level that can reduce the debt to GDP ratio. Cutting government subsidies and handouts while encouraging entrepreneurship in countries that have not been the cradle of enterprise for many decades. A very, very tall order.
US to conduct 'tests' to sell MBS.
On the same date the Fed said it would reinstitute swap lines with various foreign banks around the world to assist in providing the liquidity needed to make the EU/ECB plans work, the Fed also announced it would conduct 'tests' of bond sales in mid-June to see if it can start unloading its $1.25T of mortgage backed securities (MBS) it holds as a result of its quantitative easing operations.
That should have the effect of raising interest rates as it sends bond prices lower. Of course, this is EXACTLY what the Fed said it was going to do a couple of months back that started bonds on their slide lower. It is inevitable. The Fed HAS to tighten up the money at some point or risk a European style jump in interest rates.
Problem is, it was working in bringing rates up (just the talk of this) but then Greece and the EU came along and bonds reversed course and rallied. This was while everyone thought Greece was a non-issue and that that US was going to raise rates due to the stronger US economic numbers. BUT, bonds reversed and surged higher. Well, we now know why the US bonds rallied: Greece was falling off the table as everyone whistled past the graveyard. Another massive bond rally resulted.
Okay, now we are back to the same place we were a couple of months back. The Fed says it is going to run 'tests' just as it said back in March. The EU is supposed to be under control because they are throwing ('they' is a loose term; it also includes the US as part of the IMF) $1T at the problem. Yes, the same situation as back in March. US rates should start to rise, EU rates should lower, the euro should appreciate, and LIBOR should reverse its rise.
We will see if US rates rise appreciably. Yes the Fed might want to raise rates, but the EU woes may prevent it from doing so just yet. EU rates should fall, but that presumes confidence in the system such that money moves back into European bonds. That is definitely a wait and see. The euro did bounce Monday, but the charts still show 1.13 dollars is a key level it can fall to, and frankly 0.99 (basically par) is a real support level. LIBOR? It was down a tick to 0.42 from 0.43 hit Friday. It more than doubled from 0.21 in a month. Monday it was showing the smallest possible move in Europe's favor that it could.
Okay, that is a long way getting back to the US running these tests. The Fed wants to unload all that it bought and it thought the stronger economic data would give it cover. Then Europe went crazy and the Fed had to put it off. Now it is hoping for June. Yes as Andy Dufresne said in 'Shawshank Redemption,' hope is a good thing, but in economics and markets, hope rhymes with dope.
FNM seeks $8.4B more money after yet another loss.
Last week FRE asked for $10.6B after it posted yet another loss. In the past 18 months FRE has lost more money than it made in the prior thirty years. Now its sister is asking for more money as well, though at a mere $8.4B it looks as if it is the cautious, careful one. We are running the numbers on FNM to see how much it has lost in the past 18 months and comparing that to what it has made in its prior thirty years.
Will it get it? You bet. FRE and FNM are protected entities under TARP. Congress approved "unlimited" bailout funds for these two entities, basically citing national security as the reason. Mismanage trillions of dollars in assets, play a major role in setting the US economy on the brink of collapse, and get rewarded with unlimited funding. While the Congress is about to give itself the power to chop up any private company it deems as too successful for the country's supposed good, it is allowing the two entities it runs to grow ever larger. Understandable; these are the companies that congressional retirees go to in order to earn millions after they 'serve' in Congress.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 28.84; -12.11
VXN: 30.36; -11.16
VXO: 26.59; -12.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.02; -0.2
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 56.0% up from 54.0%. Highest on this move and it coincided with problems elsewhere. Still below the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but again, with the other factors it was high enough. Many more bulls than in February, but they are not running away with the market and thus the market continues to rally. Not that this is a 'Green Zone' of safety; it is a level that can still spark a selloff as seen early this year. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. Over the 35% threshold level below suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 18.7%. Rising from 18.0% as the bears were worried more even as bulls turned more bullish. A pretty sharp decline in bears, well off the 27.8% level on the high of this leg in February and heading toward the 15% level that is bearish for the market. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Heading back toward the 16%ish on the lows of the leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +109.03 points (+4.81%) to close at 2374.67
Volume: 2.734B (-32.55%)
Up Volume: 2.615B (+2.244B)
Down Volume: 198.351M (-3.53B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 7.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.45 to 1
New Highs: 37 (+18)
New Lows: 14 (-71)
NASDAQ CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +48.85 points (+4.4%) to close at 1159.73
NYSE Volume: 1.858B (-13.4%)
Up Volume: 1.797B (+1.438B)
Down Volume: 60.895M (-1.986B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 9.85 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.33 to 1
New Highs: 104 (+26)
New Lows: 21 (-77)
SP500 CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +404.71 points (+3.9%) to close at 10785.14
Volume DJ30: 313M shares Monday versus 428M shares Friday.
DJ30 CHART: www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
TUESDAY
The obvious question is whether the Monday rebound was an oversold bound fostered by short covering or the return of buying. Yes perhaps the $1T thrown at the EU bad children can calm the markets, but at the same time the Fed is saying it has to raise rates one way or the other. The latter has the natural tendency to pressure stock markets that have been, since the March 2009 bottom (for most stocks), driven by massive amounts of free money in the US (at least free for the banks). The banks can borrow for nothing, then lend for 2% to 5+%, pocketing the difference has 'hard earned profits.' Wish I had that job. Even so, they are still balking at leading to businesses, particularly small businesses. Ending the free money will only make it harder for the small guys to get the money they need to operate. What will helicopter Ben do?
Near term he appears committed to start sopping up the excess liquidity before interest rates get out of hand and go the Greece route. Of course that is just part of the equation: the federal government's spending is much more serious, and Bernanke pointed out two weeks back the government had to limit its entitlement spending or else. Of course everyone in Congress was listening intently. It is always a case of 'he is 100% right as long as it is someone else's entitlements getting cut and not those I count on to elect me.' So the odds of getting anything accomplished other than the Fed raising rates and selling bonds? Zero percent.
But I am acting as if our low rates are the only issue. The financial markets gave their kneejerk reaction to the $1T shock and awe package by the EU/ECB. Of course as with the original shock and awe, it was impressive, but it didn't really do the trick. It's just a little bit of history repeating . . . though on the financial stage versus the war stage.
Day one belonged to the buyers. Now we see the real story. We see if those LIBOR rates that barely budged tell the story or if the markets believe the world central banks can buy their way out of this one as well. Hey, it has worked for 50 years of free-spending, why would they change their views now? I hate to say it is different this time, but what is really different, the fact that we have been successful buying our way out of jams with cheaper money or that in the longer term history these kind of attempts to print your way out of financial malfeasance have ended very badly? There was a book by Dean Koontz (after I read two of his books I realized I had read ALL of his books as they are all the same) with the premise that if you changed history, history tried really hard to get back to the way it was supposed to be and the more you changed it the more it tried to get back to equilibrium. It makes sense applied to this situation: the more we have tried to mortgage our way out of jams, hoping for great growth to bail us out, the more market forces work to bring you back to the mean. Remember when Charlie Brown didn't do his homework and he was praying for the bell to ring so he didn't get found out he failed to write his report? The bell did ring, he was saved for the day, but instead of going home and doing the report he skipped out to play baseball. The point: even if we get lucky and get bailed out as what happened in the late 1990's and 2000's, our leaders won't change. Thus no matter what happens we ultimately get skewered.
Okay, maybe that is too pessimistic, but as the discussion in the 'Economy' section noted, the EU is effectively trying to change the natural course of socialism (running out of other people's money) by throwing other people's money at the problem. That money will be gone as well and the problem won't be solved. As the US moves toward a European model then there won't be the usual US treasure chest to raid for needed cash either.
But again I digress. The near term action deals with the indices and this bounce up to the 50 day EMA. They cleared the January peak, a necessary first step. It is very possible they can, given the nature of the selloff, recover from here after putting in a knifepoint turn. Indeed they made the turn and now they simply have to show they can continue rising, taking out the 50 day EMA.
While, as noted above, there are many undercurrents of intrigue with respect to Europe, what the Fed will do, etc., the market action tells the tale. Right now the market is trying to regroup and pick a trend after massive volatility and a massive selloff. I say 'after' massive volatility, but as demonstrated Monday, that is hardly the case: massive down, massive up as volatility is still the name of the game despite the 30% drop in the VIX Monday.
With that volatility the ultimate direction is still up for grabs. We saw some stocks we bird-dogged over the weekend make the moves we wanted Monday, so we bought them. They will either work or not. If so we let them ride. If the indices run out of gas at the 50 day EMA or even beyond, then we are ready to pick up some downside plays again as well and closing our upside if their action suggests that is the case. The market is in no trend now though there are good play setups; because the trend is broken, however, they are not that prevalent. We are looking at those that are in good position, but we are also really looking at stocks that sold off ahead of last week's meltdown, held or slightly undercut support, and are heading back up.
At the same time we have to watch if this massive bounce is just a relief move similar to the time the Fed cut rates in early 2001 after it trashed the market with too many hikes and too little liquidity in 2000. The market surged massively on the rate cut; nirvana for sure. Then the market rolled over and was pummeled again. The rate cut was just one idea that was needed; it was not the answer. $1T is a lot of money, except of course if you are the US Congress. Even so, can it change the EU's problems and prevent a collapse of the smaller EU players? We will get the market's reaction, and if the answer is 'no' then we will have some more downside plays at the ready to take advantage of a roll back to the downside.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2374.67
Resistance:
2382-2395 from 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2400
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak
2535 is the April 2010 peak
2546 from July 2007, February 2007, November 2007: a level touched many times as a high and low.
2725-2730 from the July 2007 and May 2009 peaks
Support:
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
The 200 day SMA at 2207
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1159.73
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1167
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
1214 is the first April peak, 1220 is the second high.
1240 is the key July 2008 interim low.
1293 from a March 2008 low
1298 is the November 2008 rebound high that made a lower high. Also part of the Q1 2008 double bottom.
Support:
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1096
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
Dow: Closed at 10,785.14
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 10,824
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,201
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 11 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, March (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% prior
May 12 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, March (08:30): -$40.0B expected, -$39.7B prior
Crude Inventories, 05/08 (10:30): 2.75M prior
Treasury Budget, April (14:00): -$20.0B expected, -$20.9B prior
May 13 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 05/08 (08:30): 440K expected, 444K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/08 (08:30): 4590K expected, 4594K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., April (08:30): 0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, April (08:30): 0.2% prior
May 14 - Friday
Retail Sales, April (08:30): 0.2% expected, 1.9% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, April (08:30): 0.5% expected, 0.9% prior
Capacity Utilization, April (09:15): 73.8% expected, 73.2% prior
Industrial Production, April (09:15): 0.6% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, May (09:55): 73.5 expected, 72.2 prior
Business Inventories, March (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
End part 1 of 3
2010年3月29日星期一
2010年3月18日星期四
Stocks
3/18/2010
AA: AA目前是突破后回探頸線支撐的走勢，突破昨天高點后市仍將繼續上行
礦業股 aa2010年每股收益預期0.84，暫無增長率和市盈率資料
Alcoa(AA). Alcoa's increased focus on higher-margin aluminum products has been slow going in 2010, and shares are down double digits since Jan. 1. But a breakout in yesterday's trading could leave this stock set up for a serious upside pop in the next week.
Alcoa starting forming an ascending triangle -- a bullish pattern characterized by a set resistance level and higher lows -- back in February. But it wasn't until yesterday that shares actually staged their breakout, with strong economic data as the catalyst.
Shares of Alcoa don't face another meaningful price ceiling until $17, so expect traders to be watching shares intently for the opportunity to snag a nearly 18% gain quickly. Wait for a second consecutive open above the horizontal blue line before going long yourself.
AA: AA目前是突破后回探頸線支撐的走勢，突破昨天高點后市仍將繼續上行
礦業股 aa2010年每股收益預期0.84，暫無增長率和市盈率資料
Alcoa(AA). Alcoa's increased focus on higher-margin aluminum products has been slow going in 2010, and shares are down double digits since Jan. 1. But a breakout in yesterday's trading could leave this stock set up for a serious upside pop in the next week.
Alcoa starting forming an ascending triangle -- a bullish pattern characterized by a set resistance level and higher lows -- back in February. But it wasn't until yesterday that shares actually staged their breakout, with strong economic data as the catalyst.
Shares of Alcoa don't face another meaningful price ceiling until $17, so expect traders to be watching shares intently for the opportunity to snag a nearly 18% gain quickly. Wait for a second consecutive open above the horizontal blue line before going long yourself.
2010年3月17日星期三
Chinese Stocks
YONG has GS support at 7.50 on seconary offering.
HEAT has fidelity support at 11.50.
SEED has wide acceptance.
CAGC has good reputation.
RINO is done with accounting rumor , no one knows truth
FUQI
Warren on 3/17/2010:
FUQI的业绩将调整到 1.66-1.70每股的业绩，对应静态PE的8倍在13.28-15元附近。 进一步支撑在11.99元附近， 我认为此股在这个区间，将逐渐走稳，然后看业绩的进展。
[long 3/17/2010 2:17:33 AM EST] warren 老师 ；大陆的朋友打电话说；现在黄金价格在200元一克，那么黄金首饰价格更高，刚刚春节假曰我们相信fuqi销售一定很好！！只要这个公司不破产，我还继续持有，等待股价调整！！！！谢谢WARRN ，
[warren 3/17/2010 2:12:29 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 13-19周三會留下大缺口，這個缺口我認為遲早要被填補，為什麽？如果金價上升的話，FUQI的7000萬價值存貨就要升值，如果被套，我認為也不要心急，但是我不會加倉，我覺得這公司的信任出現了危機。
[warren 3/17/2010 2:08:46 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: long G 3/17/2010 1:51:57 AM EST] warren 老师 ；fuqi有100多家商铺，要一个一个盘点，也许需要时间，这很正常，只是它的会计季报误差问题，是否有别有用心的人利用利空吃货！ FUQI100個商鋪僅是零售店業務，主要的營收來自于批發，很明顯公司內部為了在去年夏天提高發行價，而做了手腳，當然在10-13附近，這股逐漸變得有吸引力了，不過我不會買!13-14價格我們都見過，我也不十分吃驚，短期看吧，主要看金價和機構持有者的表現。
[warren 3/17/2010 1:44:13 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI誤報業績在09年第二和第三季度，這與去年夏天1億的增發時間吻合，公司做低了成本，做高了利潤，看來目的是很確的，是讓發行價在最高點，希望這家公司的內部控制能做好。
[long 3/17/2010 1:08:10 AM EST] warren 老师 ；FUQI的业绩误差，是否在 0.20 左右，为什么盘后股价跌这么多，warren 你给分析一下，这庄家也出不去套在里了，是否这样！！！
[goup2040 3/17/2010 12:51:26 AM EST] warrent, what will happen to the FUQI price tomorrow morning? another big drip of stock?
[warren 3/17/2010 12:38:17 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: [shir G 3/17/2010 12:31:11 AM EST] Warren, thank you for your prompt follow-up on FUQI. The good thing is that I have learned postion contol in VIP and have light position after Jan 21, 2010. Good for you!
[warren 3/17/2010 12:37:26 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 去年五月11日FUQI也有一次延遲報季報，後面四天就公布了季報，看來第四和第一季度（中國春節）期間是會計的頭痛階段。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:26:14 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI我從IPO第一天開始追蹤，看他從10元上下波動，然後今年金融風暴從3元一路漲到34,很可惜，今年出了會計問題，我覺得一種可能，就是這公司管理的難度大了，1.78億的銷售額度，很多公司一上市就露出問題了，象GRO,GU,不過這次的確讓我有點失望，很多行業中的利好，沒有轉換成FUQI的利好，看最近兩天分析師如何說的吧，By the way, JRJC業績公布后小幅走高，銷售額度再度走強。 他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙：他賣不出什麽股，我的意思(更正)
[warren 3/17/2010 12:21:24 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI和很多中國公司不同的是，FUQI的創始人是44%占股，這是個很大的不同，他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙，也就是說他心裡很有野心罷了，看下NTES,在剛上市的問題不會比FUQI要小，我覺得這是個教訓，在憤怒之餘，安靜想下，很多中國公司都是管理團隊，占有10%附近的持股，他們的目的自然不同，要重視大股東占有40%以上股份的公司，創始人還是KEY。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:16:44 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI的故事 從沒有審計的季報到審計的年報，其中被高出0.20,我認為是兩種可能1）公司的CFO對於美國的審計制度缺乏經驗，或者由於壓力提前高估了，其實如果拿中國A股的審計報告，大部分都是通不過美國的審計制度的。2)歷史季度上顯示，FUQI是個高成長的公司，所以在成長中必然有很多煩惱，這在以前的FMCN上也是有鮮例的。關於法律訴訟，律師一張文，再簽30%提成，基本上股東分不到一分錢。即使類似ENRON這種大的詐騙案件，也沒有股東拿回一分錢的。那么FUQI還有希望嗎，現在FUQI的Book Value就在10元，現金是6元，即使如何計算，還是賺錢的公司，下一個還是看黃金的走勢，黃金價值走高，它的存貨自然價值升高。對不起，在過去的半年內，我以投資角度去看這公司，業績讓我很紅臉，再看吧。
[lsp04lyf 3/17/2010 12:03:05 AM EST] 能用中文解释一下该要怎么做，需不需要或者需要支付多少费用吗？FUQI做的也太损了点，简直无法无天了，不告他们真是恶气难出啊。
I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join.
[shir 3/16/2010 11:51:06 PM EST] I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join. http://www.howardsmithlaw.com/SecuritiesFraudCases/FuqiInternational.html
[shir 3/16/2010 11:46:20 PM EST] Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Investigation On Behalf of Shareholders of Fuqi International, Inc. BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims against Fuqi International, Inc. (“Fuqi International” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq:FUQI - News) concerning possible securities violations related to the Company’s public statements regarding its financial performance between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010. Fuqi International, through its subsidiaries, engages in designing, developing, promoting and selling precious-metal jewelry in the People’s Republic of China.The investigation concerns the Company’s March 16, 2010, announcement that it will delay the release of its final fourth quarter and year-end 2009 financial results, and will also file an extension for the filing of its Form 10-K for 2009 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to the statement, “the Company identified certain accounting errors that are expected to have a material impact on the previously issued quarterly financial statements for the first three quarters of 2009.” The Company further announced that “it is expected that as a result of the accounting errors, the cost of sales for each of the periods were understated and gross profit and net income, as a result, were accordingly overstated.” The Company’s statement preliminarily estimated that the earnings per share included in its previously issued financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2009, were overstated in the range of $0.15-$0.19 per share.If you purchased shares of Fuqi International, Inc. stock between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010 and suffered a loss, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmith@howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlink&url=http%3A%2F%
warren 3/16/2010 9:27:26 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: 關於FUQI 晚上好，FUQI今天延長了年報的日期，對于第四季度預測發布了警告，股價大跌了30%,同時在年報審計中也提到了，以前三個季度被過高的估計了約0.20的業績。我覺得這是中國民營企業在美國上市路程上的一個教訓，我也很遺憾，但是看到FUQI的第四季度達到歷史新高，這也是個利好，同時零售店的銷售也增加了3倍，這也是利好。利空：1.審計結果使得FUQI過高的估計了0.20的每股盈利,這使得這個公司的信譽在投資人心目中打打折扣。2.第四季度的業績展望調低，市場價值從2.20變成1.60-1.773.低利潤的產品繼續在走高，這使得市場短期不會過於看好FUQI，除非利潤率出現變化。非常遺憾看到FUQI的這種結果，我認為FUQI近期還將在11-15區間震蕩，當然也不排除會去填補19元的缺口。Again,我是用投資的角度去看這股，這種結果也是在投資中的一種過程，暫時我將觀望。
[cpadvanced 3/16/2010 8:41:59 PM EST] FUQI: 该公司一直在进行截至2009年12月31日根据评估其内部控制与公司的萨班斯法案的遵约程序。虽然该公司的评估程序尚未完成，该公司认为，至少在有关其2009年萨班斯法案404节规定的审计，迄今查明的缺陷之一，构成物质的弱点，包括但不限于：公司的时期结束的2009年12月31日结束的过程。作为2009年的萨班斯所获得的结果法案404节审计，迄今为止，该公司确定的有关本公司的库存和销售成本的核算某些错误。 该会计差错的结果预计将有一个以前发布的季度为2009年前三个季度的财务报表产生重大影响，如在档案中。管理和会计人员需要更多时间来进行对先前提出的2009年的季度财务报表的内部评价这种影响。由于审查工作仍在进行中，本公司无法准确估计，在这个时候对公司中期的2009年前三个季度的财务报表的影响。 然而，对公司现状的评估，预计该会计差错的结果是，为2009年第一季度和第二季度各销售成本被低估和毛利润和净利润，因此， ，据此夸大这种时期。根据公司的最新估计，可能多报，目前预计将达到约12％-14％和21％-23第一季度％，而2009年第二季度，分别每股盈利中包括以前发布截至9月30日的9个月，2009年的约0.15美元，折合每股0.19美元的基础上约23.0亿加权平均股数截至9月30日的9个月，2009年多报的财务报表。上述估计是根据初步资料，只在作为本表格8日提供给公司- K中受到与其进行审核调整，并没有得到公司的独立注册会计师事务所审计。 由于上述原因，该公司完成其年度综合财务报表，并要求被推迟披露之前，公司的分析和对以前发布的2009年季度财务报表中的潜在错误评估的完成。正如该公司的表格第12B - 25与证券交易委员会提交的2010年3月16号，本公司将申请表格10日- K年度报告，尽快，并试图把日历的15天以下的申请规定对上述报告的截止日期，但是，就没有这份报告将被提交的期限内保证。因此，时间，本公司拟提交修订的申请，每年按规定，披露会计误差的影响。 该公司的审计委员会和管理层讨论了事实和会计错误，并与该公司的独立审计师进行内部分析的情况。
[warren 3/15/2010 12:10:57 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: FUQI退出Roth Capitl峰會的意義FUQI突然退出Roth Capital峰會，這在周五被解釋成負面，在我統計之中，負面要多餘正面，因為Roth Capital的峰會也是一次與機構投資人見面的機會，所以FUQI連續兩天下跌。還是我說的，要證明這股是裊還是雄，最關鍵的還是業績，現在市場過多的猜測，是準備誘空，還是暴風雨來之前，誰都說不清楚。不過這條消息解釋了周五的下跌。3/15/2010 10:35:47 AM美股新聞快訊FUQI退出Roth資本增長會議Fuqi International(FUQI)已經退出了由Roth所組織的，將於下週舉行的資本增長會議。該消息已得到了Roth的確認，原因為日程方面存在衝突。
FUQI的业绩将调整到 1.66-1.70每股的业绩，对应静态PE的8倍在13.28-15元附近。 进一步支撑在11.99元附近， 我认为此股在这个区间，将逐渐走稳，然后看业绩的进展。
[long 3/17/2010 2:17:33 AM EST] warren 老师 ；大陆的朋友打电话说；现在黄金价格在200元一克，那么黄金首饰价格更高，刚刚春节假曰我们相信fuqi销售一定很好！！只要这个公司不破产，我还继续持有，等待股价调整！！！！谢谢WARRN ，
[warren 3/17/2010 2:12:29 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 13-19周三會留下大缺口，這個缺口我認為遲早要被填補，為什麽？如果金價上升的話，FUQI的7000萬價值存貨就要升值，如果被套，我認為也不要心急，但是我不會加倉，我覺得這公司的信任出現了危機。
[warren 3/17/2010 2:08:46 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: long G 3/17/2010 1:51:57 AM EST] warren 老师 ；fuqi有100多家商铺，要一个一个盘点，也许需要时间，这很正常，只是它的会计季报误差问题，是否有别有用心的人利用利空吃货！ FUQI100個商鋪僅是零售店業務，主要的營收來自于批發，很明顯公司內部為了在去年夏天提高發行價，而做了手腳，當然在10-13附近，這股逐漸變得有吸引力了，不過我不會買!13-14價格我們都見過，我也不十分吃驚，短期看吧，主要看金價和機構持有者的表現。
[warren 3/17/2010 1:44:13 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI誤報業績在09年第二和第三季度，這與去年夏天1億的增發時間吻合，公司做低了成本，做高了利潤，看來目的是很確的，是讓發行價在最高點，希望這家公司的內部控制能做好。
[long 3/17/2010 1:08:10 AM EST] warren 老师 ；FUQI的业绩误差，是否在 0.20 左右，为什么盘后股价跌这么多，warren 你给分析一下，这庄家也出不去套在里了，是否这样！！！
[goup2040 3/17/2010 12:51:26 AM EST] warrent, what will happen to the FUQI price tomorrow morning? another big drip of stock?
[warren 3/17/2010 12:38:17 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: [shir G 3/17/2010 12:31:11 AM EST] Warren, thank you for your prompt follow-up on FUQI. The good thing is that I have learned postion contol in VIP and have light position after Jan 21, 2010. Good for you!
[warren 3/17/2010 12:37:26 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: 去年五月11日FUQI也有一次延遲報季報，後面四天就公布了季報，看來第四和第一季度（中國春節）期間是會計的頭痛階段。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:26:14 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI我從IPO第一天開始追蹤，看他從10元上下波動，然後今年金融風暴從3元一路漲到34,很可惜，今年出了會計問題，我覺得一種可能，就是這公司管理的難度大了，1.78億的銷售額度，很多公司一上市就露出問題了，象GRO,GU,不過這次的確讓我有點失望，很多行業中的利好，沒有轉換成FUQI的利好，看最近兩天分析師如何說的吧，By the way, JRJC業績公布后小幅走高，銷售額度再度走強。 他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙：他賣不出什麽股，我的意思(更正)
[warren 3/17/2010 12:21:24 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI和很多中國公司不同的是，FUQI的創始人是44%占股，這是個很大的不同，他賣出股，他為什麽要欺騙，也就是說他心裡很有野心罷了，看下NTES,在剛上市的問題不會比FUQI要小，我覺得這是個教訓，在憤怒之餘，安靜想下，很多中國公司都是管理團隊，占有10%附近的持股，他們的目的自然不同，要重視大股東占有40%以上股份的公司，創始人還是KEY。
[warren 3/17/2010 12:16:44 AM EST] 美股技巧討論: FUQI的故事 從沒有審計的季報到審計的年報，其中被高出0.20,我認為是兩種可能1）公司的CFO對於美國的審計制度缺乏經驗，或者由於壓力提前高估了，其實如果拿中國A股的審計報告，大部分都是通不過美國的審計制度的。2)歷史季度上顯示，FUQI是個高成長的公司，所以在成長中必然有很多煩惱，這在以前的FMCN上也是有鮮例的。關於法律訴訟，律師一張文，再簽30%提成，基本上股東分不到一分錢。即使類似ENRON這種大的詐騙案件，也沒有股東拿回一分錢的。那么FUQI還有希望嗎，現在FUQI的Book Value就在10元，現金是6元，即使如何計算，還是賺錢的公司，下一個還是看黃金的走勢，黃金價值走高，它的存貨自然價值升高。對不起，在過去的半年內，我以投資角度去看這公司，業績讓我很紅臉，再看吧。
[lsp04lyf 3/17/2010 12:03:05 AM EST] 能用中文解释一下该要怎么做，需不需要或者需要支付多少费用吗？FUQI做的也太损了点，简直无法无天了，不告他们真是恶气难出啊。
I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join.
[shir 3/16/2010 11:51:06 PM EST] I have small position of FUQI, the only stock with out a stop loss in my position, expecting profit at ER. Now I am going to sue FUQI for its misleading information. Here is the link to join. http://www.howardsmithlaw.com/SecuritiesFraudCases/FuqiInternational.html
[shir 3/16/2010 11:46:20 PM EST] Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Investigation On Behalf of Shareholders of Fuqi International, Inc. BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims against Fuqi International, Inc. (“Fuqi International” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq:FUQI - News) concerning possible securities violations related to the Company’s public statements regarding its financial performance between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010. Fuqi International, through its subsidiaries, engages in designing, developing, promoting and selling precious-metal jewelry in the People’s Republic of China.The investigation concerns the Company’s March 16, 2010, announcement that it will delay the release of its final fourth quarter and year-end 2009 financial results, and will also file an extension for the filing of its Form 10-K for 2009 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to the statement, “the Company identified certain accounting errors that are expected to have a material impact on the previously issued quarterly financial statements for the first three quarters of 2009.” The Company further announced that “it is expected that as a result of the accounting errors, the cost of sales for each of the periods were understated and gross profit and net income, as a result, were accordingly overstated.” The Company’s statement preliminarily estimated that the earnings per share included in its previously issued financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2009, were overstated in the range of $0.15-$0.19 per share.If you purchased shares of Fuqi International, Inc. stock between May 15, 2009 and March 16, 2010 and suffered a loss, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmith@howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlink&url=http%3A%2F%
warren 3/16/2010 9:27:26 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: 關於FUQI 晚上好，FUQI今天延長了年報的日期，對于第四季度預測發布了警告，股價大跌了30%,同時在年報審計中也提到了，以前三個季度被過高的估計了約0.20的業績。我覺得這是中國民營企業在美國上市路程上的一個教訓，我也很遺憾，但是看到FUQI的第四季度達到歷史新高，這也是個利好，同時零售店的銷售也增加了3倍，這也是利好。利空：1.審計結果使得FUQI過高的估計了0.20的每股盈利,這使得這個公司的信譽在投資人心目中打打折扣。2.第四季度的業績展望調低，市場價值從2.20變成1.60-1.773.低利潤的產品繼續在走高，這使得市場短期不會過於看好FUQI，除非利潤率出現變化。非常遺憾看到FUQI的這種結果，我認為FUQI近期還將在11-15區間震蕩，當然也不排除會去填補19元的缺口。Again,我是用投資的角度去看這股，這種結果也是在投資中的一種過程，暫時我將觀望。
[cpadvanced 3/16/2010 8:41:59 PM EST] FUQI: 该公司一直在进行截至2009年12月31日根据评估其内部控制与公司的萨班斯法案的遵约程序。虽然该公司的评估程序尚未完成，该公司认为，至少在有关其2009年萨班斯法案404节规定的审计，迄今查明的缺陷之一，构成物质的弱点，包括但不限于：公司的时期结束的2009年12月31日结束的过程。作为2009年的萨班斯所获得的结果法案404节审计，迄今为止，该公司确定的有关本公司的库存和销售成本的核算某些错误。 该会计差错的结果预计将有一个以前发布的季度为2009年前三个季度的财务报表产生重大影响，如在档案中。管理和会计人员需要更多时间来进行对先前提出的2009年的季度财务报表的内部评价这种影响。由于审查工作仍在进行中，本公司无法准确估计，在这个时候对公司中期的2009年前三个季度的财务报表的影响。 然而，对公司现状的评估，预计该会计差错的结果是，为2009年第一季度和第二季度各销售成本被低估和毛利润和净利润，因此， ，据此夸大这种时期。根据公司的最新估计，可能多报，目前预计将达到约12％-14％和21％-23第一季度％，而2009年第二季度，分别每股盈利中包括以前发布截至9月30日的9个月，2009年的约0.15美元，折合每股0.19美元的基础上约23.0亿加权平均股数截至9月30日的9个月，2009年多报的财务报表。上述估计是根据初步资料，只在作为本表格8日提供给公司- K中受到与其进行审核调整，并没有得到公司的独立注册会计师事务所审计。 由于上述原因，该公司完成其年度综合财务报表，并要求被推迟披露之前，公司的分析和对以前发布的2009年季度财务报表中的潜在错误评估的完成。正如该公司的表格第12B - 25与证券交易委员会提交的2010年3月16号，本公司将申请表格10日- K年度报告，尽快，并试图把日历的15天以下的申请规定对上述报告的截止日期，但是，就没有这份报告将被提交的期限内保证。因此，时间，本公司拟提交修订的申请，每年按规定，披露会计误差的影响。 该公司的审计委员会和管理层讨论了事实和会计错误，并与该公司的独立审计师进行内部分析的情况。
[warren 3/15/2010 12:10:57 PM EST] 股票波段交易提醒: FUQI退出Roth Capitl峰會的意義FUQI突然退出Roth Capital峰會，這在周五被解釋成負面，在我統計之中，負面要多餘正面，因為Roth Capital的峰會也是一次與機構投資人見面的機會，所以FUQI連續兩天下跌。還是我說的，要證明這股是裊還是雄，最關鍵的還是業績，現在市場過多的猜測，是準備誘空，還是暴風雨來之前，誰都說不清楚。不過這條消息解釋了周五的下跌。3/15/2010 10:35:47 AM美股新聞快訊FUQI退出Roth資本增長會議Fuqi International(FUQI)已經退出了由Roth所組織的，將於下週舉行的資本增長會議。該消息已得到了Roth的確認，原因為日程方面存在衝突。
2010年3月15日星期一
2010年3月13日星期六
Stock Watch Lists
1. DRYS
Warren: 這是我兩次DRYS的時間和價格，供參考。
3/10/2010 10:38:05 AM warren 繼續加倉DRYS 6.18-6.19
03/10/20101/11/2010 3:40:10 PM warren 買進DRYS 6.53 01/11/2010
Warren: 這是我兩次DRYS的時間和價格，供參考。
3/10/2010 10:38:05 AM warren 繼續加倉DRYS 6.18-6.19
03/10/20101/11/2010 3:40:10 PM warren 買進DRYS 6.53 01/11/2010
2010年3月12日星期五
2010年3月9日星期二
Warren recommended stocks
3/9/2009
隨著上周五就業數據的公布，近期美股大漲之後處於橫盤震蕩的走勢。Warren 近期非常看好黃金的走勢，黃金的走勢如Warren所預測的受到美國就業數據對美元的影響，出現了回落，但這不影響Warren看好黃金的觀點。
從近期的走勢中可以看到DryShips (DRYS),Las Vegas Sands(LVS)這兩支個股走勢都非常強勁，另外前期被拋空的一些個股近期也出現了一輪補漲的行情，值得投資人關註。
Warren認為不可錯過的三支網絡通訊板塊個股為：
1. Cisco Systems(CSCO) ，CSCO將在今天盤後召開發布會，公布其所推出的新網絡。從圖形來看，CSCO從去年9月份到現在處於較長時間的橫盤整理區間，現在出現一輪突破的行情。Warren認為主要原因是當今社會對網絡通訊和網路通訊設備的需求非常大，上網的速度將會越來越快。投資大師Peter Lynch在其著作中有講到，投資人應該買入自己喜歡或了解的個股。CSCO作為網絡通訊的龍頭，通過不斷的兼並變成統治網絡通訊的個股。這支股票最高點在72美元，現在股價僅約為72美元的1/3；市盈率只有16倍左右，越來越合理；公司成長速度因網路通訊加速的需求而不斷增加。CSCO 在27-28美元附近會出現一輪短期的壓力，將有一個小幅回落的走勢。不過在橫盤以後這支個股將會有繼續走強的機會。
2. 具有小CSCO之稱的Juniper Networks(JNPR), 從圖形來看，走勢基本與CSCO相同。 8-9月份出現橫盤整理以後，最近出現了突破的走勢。基本上橫盤的區間在23-29左右，走勢相對於大盤來說要強很多。
3. Riverbed Technology(RVBD) ,这支个股和CSCO一樣，走出了三角形的整理區間，從去年4-5月份到今年3月份基本在這個區間整理，而且出現了不斷沖高，這個個股也會有上漲的機會。那麽現在如何操作？
Warren認為，這三支個股可能會回調，回調的時候一定有買入的機會，但是不能保證市場有回調或何時回調。可以做長線，或分批進場，在出現回調的時候再不斷加倉。
隨著上周五就業數據的公布，近期美股大漲之後處於橫盤震蕩的走勢。Warren 近期非常看好黃金的走勢，黃金的走勢如Warren所預測的受到美國就業數據對美元的影響，出現了回落，但這不影響Warren看好黃金的觀點。
從近期的走勢中可以看到DryShips (DRYS),Las Vegas Sands(LVS)這兩支個股走勢都非常強勁，另外前期被拋空的一些個股近期也出現了一輪補漲的行情，值得投資人關註。
Warren認為不可錯過的三支網絡通訊板塊個股為：
1. Cisco Systems(CSCO) ，CSCO將在今天盤後召開發布會，公布其所推出的新網絡。從圖形來看，CSCO從去年9月份到現在處於較長時間的橫盤整理區間，現在出現一輪突破的行情。Warren認為主要原因是當今社會對網絡通訊和網路通訊設備的需求非常大，上網的速度將會越來越快。投資大師Peter Lynch在其著作中有講到，投資人應該買入自己喜歡或了解的個股。CSCO作為網絡通訊的龍頭，通過不斷的兼並變成統治網絡通訊的個股。這支股票最高點在72美元，現在股價僅約為72美元的1/3；市盈率只有16倍左右，越來越合理；公司成長速度因網路通訊加速的需求而不斷增加。CSCO 在27-28美元附近會出現一輪短期的壓力，將有一個小幅回落的走勢。不過在橫盤以後這支個股將會有繼續走強的機會。
2. 具有小CSCO之稱的Juniper Networks(JNPR), 從圖形來看，走勢基本與CSCO相同。 8-9月份出現橫盤整理以後，最近出現了突破的走勢。基本上橫盤的區間在23-29左右，走勢相對於大盤來說要強很多。
3. Riverbed Technology(RVBD) ,这支个股和CSCO一樣，走出了三角形的整理區間，從去年4-5月份到今年3月份基本在這個區間整理，而且出現了不斷沖高，這個個股也會有上漲的機會。那麽現在如何操作？
Warren認為，這三支個股可能會回調，回調的時候一定有買入的機會，但是不能保證市場有回調或何時回調。可以做長線，或分批進場，在出現回調的時候再不斷加倉。
2010年3月7日星期日
Charles Nenner updates Paid site
Charles Nenner is a famous mkt researcher, he use many ways to form his cycle theory.
3/9/2010 updates
Spu...The next short term daily high is March 18th. The weekly cycles do not top until April 24. Charles needs more time and price action to measure the potential of the next break to see if it can exceed the last 9% correction. There was some discussion as to the current wave structure measured from the 2007 high to the 2009 low. 1147 was the .618, with 1187 his current tgt.
Nasd...He sees the most potential for upside here.
Stocks and ETF's
GS...still his favorite
AAPL...Hit his 1st tgt of 222. A good close above this level will tgt 242.
XLF... The next weekly high is April 20th with a 16.10 tgt
XRT.. The retailers are up into April 19th
EFA...The daily is down into march 17, then up into April 1. The weekly is down into mid May.
Bonds...The June contracts are on sell signal. The next short term daily low is March 18.
He still sees this trade as taking a long time.
Yen..the short term daily cycle bottomed yesterday and is up into April 14th. The weekly has topped.When you get this disparity in the cycles, you can get a lot of back and forth until they both turn down.This occurs after year end accounting in Japan ( March 31st)
Aussie..91.30 is Charles’ tgt and the level to watch. Closes above this area can lead to higher price tgt's. The weekly cycles bottom again the beginning of April.
Gold... Hit the tgt of 1142. The daily is up into March 23. The weekly is down.
Sugar...The next weekly low is April 19th with a 19.50 tgt. We'll look for a long around then.Crude...The daily cycles are up into month end when both the daily and the weekly top.
3/8/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow– Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
S&P/Nasdaq
No change
The buy signal continues and cycles are up
We expect to see our upside price targets, as long as the S&P does not close below 1116 and the Nasdaq not below 1845
Sector
Gold continues on a buy signal for a few more weeks
However, Gold did not close yet above our upside price target of 1142
As long as that does not happen, our upside price target of 1187 has not been confirmed
Crude
The buy signal continues
Cycles are up for most of Mar
Keep now a sell stop below 79.50
It seems extreme, but a move to $92 is possible
US Bonds
We are now writing about June Bonds
The 30 and 5 year are on a sell signal, but the 10 year not yet
The 10 year still will have to close below 117
The down move is very slow
There are only a few months to go
We are still trying to go long the 10 year around a yield of 4% but we might not reach it.
Bunds
Bunds continue on a buy signal, as long there is no close below 124
Euro
No change
Still no buy signal
However, as mentioned before, we closed shorts based on the short term cycle low
Aussie
The Aussie reached our upside price target of 91.30, but continues on a buy signal
Cycles are close to a low
A close above 91.30 will probably give higher price targets
Aud/Nzd
We could still see our upside price taget of 133.50
Cycles are topping
A close below 129 will signal that we saw a short term high
Yen
No change
We see some weakness
However, the next short term low in Yen strength, Dollar Yen weakness is in a few days
We are waiting one more time to see strength in order to go short
Longer term cycles topped in Yen strength, and are down until year end
Canadian Dollar
Our price target is still around 101
Based on long term cycles, it can take until July
Short term traders might sell around the short term cycle high around Mar 18
3/3/2010 updates
here is charles N comments, sometime I do not understand, it is impossible for EUR to go 1.40 while AUD and JPY say topped tomorrw, let's seealso see his view of AG futures, wheat and soybean major cycle======================================
Bonds... Charles want to go long the 10 yr. at 4.10 yield for a one year trade.He sees rates higher from here into the summer, then lower yields as a deflationscare sets in for app 1 year, after which the story changes to inflation and rates riseEventual targets 2 -3 years out are 6 1/2%, then the 8-9% level.SPU….The weekly cycle is up into mid AprilGold..Daily cycles are up with a 1140-42 target. This is a high risk trade.The next daily high is the 23 rd. The weekly cycles do not support a sustained move upwith the next quarterly low not coming until Oct. 2010.Copper..The daily cycle is up into March 19th. The weekly cycle is up into late May with a 373 target.Nat Gas... cycles are down until June 2011 with targets of 3.80 and 1.70Crude..The next daily high is March 6th. 78 is the closing breakdown #. The weekly cycles top the 3rd week of March and are down into 2011. After the weekly cycles top mid month, a close below 71.70 will confirm the high of this recent upto the mid 80's for a 1 year down.Wheat/Soybeans...Charles is looking for a major bull to start in a couple of months lasting into May 2013.Euro..There is still time on the daily cycles for the Euro to rally before the weekly tops again.He's looking for the dream sell around 140 eventually targeting 118.Yen...USD/JGY bottoms this week. Charles is looking for a major move to 105 by year end.Aussie..The daily cycles are as follows: the next high is March 3, the following low is March 18, then up into April 6th.Aud/Eur…The weekly bottoms mid March, then cycles are up into July.
3/5/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow – Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
One of our clients - who is much more knowledgeable than we are - is convinced that the market leaders are GS, Apple, and Google
Yesterday, GS gave the expected buy signal, closing above 162.50
Apple gave an upside price target of 222
Google will join, once there is a close above 555
Cycles are up
Markets continue on a buy signal
We did not get confirmed higher price targets
However, one more good up day will confirm the targets, which are:
S&P 1175, which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1107
Nasdaq 1946 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1827
Dow 11,000 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 10,280
Crude
We are still waiting to see if there will be a good close above $80.50
That will lead to higher price targets
Cycles continue up until late March
Sector
Gold corrected after reaching our upside price target of 1142
Cycles are up
The buy signal continues, as long as there is no close below 1111
A good close above 1142 will project to 1187
Nat Gas
Longer term cycles are down until May 2011
Our downside price targets are 3.88 and 1.70
US Bonds
The 10 and 5 year refuse to give a sell signal
Bunds
Bunds should continue up to our price target of 125
A close below 123.80 will be a sell signal
Euro
The positive cycles only seem to lead to an intraday bounce
No change in outlook
Australian Dollar
The fact that the Aussie is holding up with cycles bottoming in few weeks is positive
A move to 91.30 is still possible, as long as there is no close below 89.50
Yen
The Yen reached our upside price target of 88
Weekly cycles topped
However, based on daily cycles, we could see a test of 88
We are still waiting to go short Yen, long Dollar Yen
Wheat/ Beans/ Corn
The sell signal continues
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/9/2010 updates
Spu...The next short term daily high is March 18th. The weekly cycles do not top until April 24. Charles needs more time and price action to measure the potential of the next break to see if it can exceed the last 9% correction. There was some discussion as to the current wave structure measured from the 2007 high to the 2009 low. 1147 was the .618, with 1187 his current tgt.
Nasd...He sees the most potential for upside here.
Stocks and ETF's
GS...still his favorite
AAPL...Hit his 1st tgt of 222. A good close above this level will tgt 242.
XLF... The next weekly high is April 20th with a 16.10 tgt
XRT.. The retailers are up into April 19th
EFA...The daily is down into march 17, then up into April 1. The weekly is down into mid May.
Bonds...The June contracts are on sell signal. The next short term daily low is March 18.
He still sees this trade as taking a long time.
Yen..the short term daily cycle bottomed yesterday and is up into April 14th. The weekly has topped.When you get this disparity in the cycles, you can get a lot of back and forth until they both turn down.This occurs after year end accounting in Japan ( March 31st)
Aussie..91.30 is Charles’ tgt and the level to watch. Closes above this area can lead to higher price tgt's. The weekly cycles bottom again the beginning of April.
Gold... Hit the tgt of 1142. The daily is up into March 23. The weekly is down.
Sugar...The next weekly low is April 19th with a 19.50 tgt. We'll look for a long around then.Crude...The daily cycles are up into month end when both the daily and the weekly top.
3/8/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow– Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
S&P/Nasdaq
No change
The buy signal continues and cycles are up
We expect to see our upside price targets, as long as the S&P does not close below 1116 and the Nasdaq not below 1845
Sector
Gold continues on a buy signal for a few more weeks
However, Gold did not close yet above our upside price target of 1142
As long as that does not happen, our upside price target of 1187 has not been confirmed
Crude
The buy signal continues
Cycles are up for most of Mar
Keep now a sell stop below 79.50
It seems extreme, but a move to $92 is possible
US Bonds
We are now writing about June Bonds
The 30 and 5 year are on a sell signal, but the 10 year not yet
The 10 year still will have to close below 117
The down move is very slow
There are only a few months to go
We are still trying to go long the 10 year around a yield of 4% but we might not reach it.
Bunds
Bunds continue on a buy signal, as long there is no close below 124
Euro
No change
Still no buy signal
However, as mentioned before, we closed shorts based on the short term cycle low
Aussie
The Aussie reached our upside price target of 91.30, but continues on a buy signal
Cycles are close to a low
A close above 91.30 will probably give higher price targets
Aud/Nzd
We could still see our upside price taget of 133.50
Cycles are topping
A close below 129 will signal that we saw a short term high
Yen
No change
We see some weakness
However, the next short term low in Yen strength, Dollar Yen weakness is in a few days
We are waiting one more time to see strength in order to go short
Longer term cycles topped in Yen strength, and are down until year end
Canadian Dollar
Our price target is still around 101
Based on long term cycles, it can take until July
Short term traders might sell around the short term cycle high around Mar 18
3/3/2010 updates
here is charles N comments, sometime I do not understand, it is impossible for EUR to go 1.40 while AUD and JPY say topped tomorrw, let's seealso see his view of AG futures, wheat and soybean major cycle======================================
Bonds... Charles want to go long the 10 yr. at 4.10 yield for a one year trade.He sees rates higher from here into the summer, then lower yields as a deflationscare sets in for app 1 year, after which the story changes to inflation and rates riseEventual targets 2 -3 years out are 6 1/2%, then the 8-9% level.SPU….The weekly cycle is up into mid AprilGold..Daily cycles are up with a 1140-42 target. This is a high risk trade.The next daily high is the 23 rd. The weekly cycles do not support a sustained move upwith the next quarterly low not coming until Oct. 2010.Copper..The daily cycle is up into March 19th. The weekly cycle is up into late May with a 373 target.Nat Gas... cycles are down until June 2011 with targets of 3.80 and 1.70Crude..The next daily high is March 6th. 78 is the closing breakdown #. The weekly cycles top the 3rd week of March and are down into 2011. After the weekly cycles top mid month, a close below 71.70 will confirm the high of this recent upto the mid 80's for a 1 year down.Wheat/Soybeans...Charles is looking for a major bull to start in a couple of months lasting into May 2013.Euro..There is still time on the daily cycles for the Euro to rally before the weekly tops again.He's looking for the dream sell around 140 eventually targeting 118.Yen...USD/JGY bottoms this week. Charles is looking for a major move to 105 by year end.Aussie..The daily cycles are as follows: the next high is March 3, the following low is March 18, then up into April 6th.Aud/Eur…The weekly bottoms mid March, then cycles are up into July.
3/5/2010 updates
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow – Cash Price
Currencies – Cash Prices
One of our clients - who is much more knowledgeable than we are - is convinced that the market leaders are GS, Apple, and Google
Yesterday, GS gave the expected buy signal, closing above 162.50
Apple gave an upside price target of 222
Google will join, once there is a close above 555
Cycles are up
Markets continue on a buy signal
We did not get confirmed higher price targets
However, one more good up day will confirm the targets, which are:
S&P 1175, which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1107
Nasdaq 1946 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 1827
Dow 11,000 which will also generate a sell signal on a close below 10,280
Crude
We are still waiting to see if there will be a good close above $80.50
That will lead to higher price targets
Cycles continue up until late March
Sector
Gold corrected after reaching our upside price target of 1142
Cycles are up
The buy signal continues, as long as there is no close below 1111
A good close above 1142 will project to 1187
Nat Gas
Longer term cycles are down until May 2011
Our downside price targets are 3.88 and 1.70
US Bonds
The 10 and 5 year refuse to give a sell signal
Bunds
Bunds should continue up to our price target of 125
A close below 123.80 will be a sell signal
Euro
The positive cycles only seem to lead to an intraday bounce
No change in outlook
Australian Dollar
The fact that the Aussie is holding up with cycles bottoming in few weeks is positive
A move to 91.30 is still possible, as long as there is no close below 89.50
Yen
The Yen reached our upside price target of 88
Weekly cycles topped
However, based on daily cycles, we could see a test of 88
We are still waiting to go short Yen, long Dollar Yen
Wheat/ Beans/ Corn
The sell signal continues
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stock Stars
1. Buffett lunch: And the winner is...Yongping Duan
Duan Yongping (Chinese: 段永平, Pinyin: Duàn Yǒngpíng), 1961-, is a Chinese electrical engineer, inventor, entrepreneur [1],and philanthropist [2]. He is regarded as an innovative and inspiring business figure in mainland China [3]. He is the founder of both the Subor Electronics Industry Corporation (also the former CEO) and BBK Electronics Group (also the current Chairman).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duan_Yongping
Duan Yongping (Chinese: 段永平, Pinyin: Duàn Yǒngpíng), 1961-, is a Chinese electrical engineer, inventor, entrepreneur [1],and philanthropist [2]. He is regarded as an innovative and inspiring business figure in mainland China [3]. He is the founder of both the Subor Electronics Industry Corporation (also the former CEO) and BBK Electronics Group (also the current Chairman).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duan_Yongping
2010年2月22日星期一
Bond, yield and Stock relationship
1. Watch out iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond Price (TLT), ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR(IEF) and 10 years bond yield ($TNX) movement closely.
Bond Price (tlt) goes up, yield (tnx) goes down. Bond price (tlt) goes down, yield (tnx) goes up.
When bond price goes down, the money flows to the stock market. When bond price goes up, the money flows to the bond market.
Most of time,
Good bond bad dollar.? means that dollar is up, market is down.
Bad bond good dollar.? means that dollar is down, market is up.
For bond auction, the result is not important, it will be bad anyway. The process is important, from 12PM to 1PM, they will wrap up bond auction. They will keep DXY at a good level at bond auction..
Bond Price (tlt) goes up, yield (tnx) goes down. Bond price (tlt) goes down, yield (tnx) goes up.
When bond price goes down, the money flows to the stock market. When bond price goes up, the money flows to the bond market.
Most of time,
Good bond bad dollar.? means that dollar is up, market is down.
Bad bond good dollar.? means that dollar is down, market is up.
For bond auction, the result is not important, it will be bad anyway. The process is important, from 12PM to 1PM, they will wrap up bond auction. They will keep DXY at a good level at bond auction..
2010年2月21日星期日
QuoteTracker Learning Center
Use IB as data feed to QuoteTracker quotetracker.com/quotetracker.com/help/ib.shtml
Settings use QT5 charts set up file is uploaded to:www.qqqinvestment.com/Main/index.php?opt...36&Itemid=28
Settings use QT5 charts set up file is uploaded to:www.qqqinvestment.com/Main/index.php?opt...36&Itemid=28
2010年2月18日星期四
Trade Station
TradeStation: www.tradestation.com/default_2.shtm
The charge from trade station:
ES trade min = 25$ data fee + 10 round trade (to get free platform fee)
1. TA indicator for volume ->Volume bar's color definition:
Blue is professional activity.
Yellow is retail activity.
Red is most ticks hit ask.
White is hit bids.
Green is no idea or should say equal.
Tradestation has those data, trades hit asks or bids then code is wrote. Took those data calculate and print volume bar colors. Those are specific volume based indicators.
2. TA indicator for candle
Color blue and yellow only means pro or retail activity. Not means BUY.
blue+ red=buy so buy signals given when blue and red candles at bottom
blue+white=sell so sell signals given when blue and white at top
3. Tick charts is the best one provided by Trade Station. Tick charts is best way to look volume.
10000 trades are 10000 ticks.
PB: Pull Back
Price and Volume, Patterns and Divergence
http://content.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/5b20b7be-4218-4535-b15d-6228a218418d/2010-02-21_0531.png
Target:1120
Support: 1093->1085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PB means: PULL BACK
END mesns end of trend
PT means profit taken
Blue bar means: Pro activity, no mean pro buy or sell
Green bar means: nothing, undetect.
yellow bar mean retails activity
NoD means no demand
ST means stop
instead of trying to figure out the meaning of the colors that does not work on your own chart, the main purpose for chart I posted is to show the structure of the move and try to come up trading plan based on structure.
Blue is pro activity,
yelloe is amatrurs,
but those should be count on normal trading hours, not after mkt close or light volume hoursdotted lines are resistance and supportprinted words are some possible reversal pattern that you can find then in regular TA book as well as the candle pattern I posted. also another set of color volume we loaded at file area in the site. they are similarhttp://www.qqqinvestment.com/Main/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=33&Itemid=28
red and white dots: those are support and resistance lines, not buy and sell signals, but we know what support and resisnatce means.
The charge from trade station:
ES trade min = 25$ data fee + 10 round trade (to get free platform fee)
1. TA indicator for volume ->Volume bar's color definition:
Blue is professional activity.
Yellow is retail activity.
Red is most ticks hit ask.
White is hit bids.
Green is no idea or should say equal.
Tradestation has those data, trades hit asks or bids then code is wrote. Took those data calculate and print volume bar colors. Those are specific volume based indicators.
2. TA indicator for candle
Color blue and yellow only means pro or retail activity. Not means BUY.
blue+ red=buy so buy signals given when blue and red candles at bottom
blue+white=sell so sell signals given when blue and white at top
3. Tick charts is the best one provided by Trade Station. Tick charts is best way to look volume.
10000 trades are 10000 ticks.
PB: Pull Back
Price and Volume, Patterns and Divergence
http://content.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/5b20b7be-4218-4535-b15d-6228a218418d/2010-02-21_0531.png
Target:1120
Support: 1093->1085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PB means: PULL BACK
END mesns end of trend
PT means profit taken
Blue bar means: Pro activity, no mean pro buy or sell
Green bar means: nothing, undetect.
yellow bar mean retails activity
NoD means no demand
ST means stop
instead of trying to figure out the meaning of the colors that does not work on your own chart, the main purpose for chart I posted is to show the structure of the move and try to come up trading plan based on structure.
Blue is pro activity,
yelloe is amatrurs,
but those should be count on normal trading hours, not after mkt close or light volume hoursdotted lines are resistance and supportprinted words are some possible reversal pattern that you can find then in regular TA book as well as the candle pattern I posted. also another set of color volume we loaded at file area in the site. they are similarhttp://www.qqqinvestment.com/Main/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=33&Itemid=28
red and white dots: those are support and resistance lines, not buy and sell signals, but we know what support and resisnatce means.
2010年2月15日星期一
ThinkOrSwim Learning Center
1. mediaserver.thinkorswim.com/support/lear..._learningcenter.htmlvery nice place to learn how to set up TOS. after 4 hours going through chart and trade session, I am ready to trade use TOS.
2. 5min chart is simple set up for daytrading, ema7 (blue) ema21 (yellow) and ema50 (red),
3. ATRTrailingStop: Based on price movement.
Qjie thinks ATRTrailingStop needs a input parameter called VIX high and fast. VIX moves need give tight ATRTrailingStop, low VIX reading and slow moves give relaxed trailing stops.
Try 3, 2 instead of 5, 3.5 Here is the 5min with ATRTrailingStop(modified 3,2)
2. 5min chart is simple set up for daytrading, ema7 (blue) ema21 (yellow) and ema50 (red),
3. ATRTrailingStop: Based on price movement.
Qjie thinks ATRTrailingStop needs a input parameter called VIX high and fast. VIX moves need give tight ATRTrailingStop, low VIX reading and slow moves give relaxed trailing stops.
Try 3, 2 instead of 5, 3.5 Here is the 5min with ATRTrailingStop(modified 3,2)
2010年2月7日星期日
Feb.8th.2010
Feb.7th.2010
qqq says to (18:36:30):i dumped my ssec gold stock again, bought last thursday night
qqq says to (18:37:01):2840 ssec target
qqq says to (18:37:39):charles N get DAX target 4850, that is 900-960 area on spx
2010年2月1日星期一
Trading Rules MUST READ Daily Before You Do Any Trade
1. For DT trading, watch out oil, gold, hg, dxy action, you will have a sense about the market strength.
When oil, gold and hg are up strongly, do not short this market.
When dxy is up strongly, oil, gold and hg become weak, you can short this market.
Do not short the market unless those stocks become weak, those are: X, BUCY, WLT, BHP, RTP, VALE. If those are not down, market will be ok. This info is important, itsself, and watch those stocks, if they are not weak, do not carry short position over weekend.
Usually, when China market is strong, HG will up and GOLD will up.
2. Trading Earning
The right way to bet on earning is to look for a stock about to have earning and buy in at support 2 weeks early to see if they push the stock up. Best to sell it before anyone.
3. $CPC(Total Put/Call), CPCI(Index Put/Call), CPCE(Equity Put/Call)
When CPC reaches 1.3 and 1.4, basically, the market is in the bottom.
If SPX's reversal does not reduece CPC rating, it means the put is still strong. The number of puts is still in many people's hands. The market is going to retest the low to release the puts.
4. Every Friday, you should find out next week's Economic Calendar and decide the possible bais for the coming Monday. IF there is light data week, you can hold some stock with good chart.Watch out oil, gold, hg, dxy action then you will have a sense about the market strength.
5. Most time, HOD close means strong open the next day. Especailly, when you find MM buy anything by the end of day, you can not short this market!!!
6. For the quick day trading, you must look at 5/10/15 minutes chart and make sure everything in oversold condition, then you can buy. Otherwise, do not touch.
7. For the swing trade, pick up the stock with good 60 minutes chart, day chart and weekly chart. Have a plan for the top target and stop target.
8. Market is close to top, over the past 2 years, when mkt has only CVX, XOM, COP run/hold the mkt that is the final stage
9. ●6月15日纽约的股票市场会崩盘，世界的经济将陷入危机状态
巴西预言家预言未来33年世界大事只等时间验证 综合新闻巴西预言家预言未来33年世界大事只等时间验证 朱瑟里诺先生(Mr. Juseleeno Nobulega Da Roose音译)他是巴西人，出生於1960年，目前的职业是学校的教师，现在与妻子儿女4人过著很清贫的日子，他是位极平实的市民。他所预言的事件与大灾祸发生之年、月、日，均有明确的指示，其次为了以後若有第三者想确认他预言的真假性，朱瑟里诺都会将他预言的事故之日期与内容，登录在公证事务所或国营邮局里，以方便对方查证
When oil, gold and hg are up strongly, do not short this market.
When dxy is up strongly, oil, gold and hg become weak, you can short this market.
Do not short the market unless those stocks become weak, those are: X, BUCY, WLT, BHP, RTP, VALE. If those are not down, market will be ok. This info is important, itsself, and watch those stocks, if they are not weak, do not carry short position over weekend.
Usually, when China market is strong, HG will up and GOLD will up.
2. Trading Earning
The right way to bet on earning is to look for a stock about to have earning and buy in at support 2 weeks early to see if they push the stock up. Best to sell it before anyone.
3. $CPC(Total Put/Call), CPCI(Index Put/Call), CPCE(Equity Put/Call)
When CPC reaches 1.3 and 1.4, basically, the market is in the bottom.
If SPX's reversal does not reduece CPC rating, it means the put is still strong. The number of puts is still in many people's hands. The market is going to retest the low to release the puts.
4. Every Friday, you should find out next week's Economic Calendar and decide the possible bais for the coming Monday. IF there is light data week, you can hold some stock with good chart.Watch out oil, gold, hg, dxy action then you will have a sense about the market strength.
5. Most time, HOD close means strong open the next day. Especailly, when you find MM buy anything by the end of day, you can not short this market!!!
6. For the quick day trading, you must look at 5/10/15 minutes chart and make sure everything in oversold condition, then you can buy. Otherwise, do not touch.
7. For the swing trade, pick up the stock with good 60 minutes chart, day chart and weekly chart. Have a plan for the top target and stop target.
8. Market is close to top, over the past 2 years, when mkt has only CVX, XOM, COP run/hold the mkt that is the final stage
9. ●6月15日纽约的股票市场会崩盘，世界的经济将陷入危机状态
巴西预言家预言未来33年世界大事只等时间验证 综合新闻巴西预言家预言未来33年世界大事只等时间验证 朱瑟里诺先生(Mr. Juseleeno Nobulega Da Roose音译)他是巴西人，出生於1960年，目前的职业是学校的教师，现在与妻子儿女4人过著很清贫的日子，他是位极平实的市民。他所预言的事件与大灾祸发生之年、月、日，均有明确的指示，其次为了以後若有第三者想确认他预言的真假性，朱瑟里诺都会将他预言的事故之日期与内容，登录在公证事务所或国营邮局里，以方便对方查证
2010年1月31日星期日
Future Trading
Future trading:
1. Consider Margin Requirments.
1Future = 50 times of SP500
If SP500=1100, then it costs $50*1100=$55,000.
How much it cost for 1ES?
It costs different on the different platform.
Usually it's between $5000.00 and $6000.00.
If you have 20K account, you can trade 7 ES.
E.g.
TOS platform trade IRA 1ES at $7031.25 price at all day all night.
TOS platform trade normal account 1ES at $5625.00. However, the intraday Margin requirement is 25% of $5625.00=$1406.25.
IB platform trade normal account 1ES at $2500.00 at the intraday. Othertime, it costs $5000.00 for 1ES.
2. Future Trading Range Estimate http://enthios.com/
Good to check this site every morning to find the trading range.
3. Naked VPOC: Point of Control
http://www.pivotfarm.com/futures.html
http://www.pivotfarm.com/advanced-trader-notes.html
The matrix provided by them is excellent. Depending how much you want to make everyday - you can use the matrix to trade only at important levels.
4. Many people think Euro is dead and they now use AUD:USD, JPY:USD, and CAD:USD to track FX mkt.
6J for jpy:usd
6A for aud:usd
5. Asia people love gold, European people hate OIL
In normal mkt, usually if you short gold at asia high and long oil at german low, close both position at U.S 12PM EST, 85% time you make money.
6. Usually HG tells n=mkt direction
7. Do not trade during consildation time. It's easy to take your stop out. It's best to trade when the market direction is clear.
8. Option expire: Index options stop trading on Thursday morning. Friday is all stock option expired date.
1. Consider Margin Requirments.
1Future = 50 times of SP500
If SP500=1100, then it costs $50*1100=$55,000.
How much it cost for 1ES?
It costs different on the different platform.
Usually it's between $5000.00 and $6000.00.
If you have 20K account, you can trade 7 ES.
E.g.
TOS platform trade IRA 1ES at $7031.25 price at all day all night.
TOS platform trade normal account 1ES at $5625.00. However, the intraday Margin requirement is 25% of $5625.00=$1406.25.
IB platform trade normal account 1ES at $2500.00 at the intraday. Othertime, it costs $5000.00 for 1ES.
2. Future Trading Range Estimate http://enthios.com/
Good to check this site every morning to find the trading range.
3. Naked VPOC: Point of Control
http://www.pivotfarm.com/futures.html
http://www.pivotfarm.com/advanced-trader-notes.html
The matrix provided by them is excellent. Depending how much you want to make everyday - you can use the matrix to trade only at important levels.
4. Many people think Euro is dead and they now use AUD:USD, JPY:USD, and CAD:USD to track FX mkt.
6J for jpy:usd
6A for aud:usd
5. Asia people love gold, European people hate OIL
In normal mkt, usually if you short gold at asia high and long oil at german low, close both position at U.S 12PM EST, 85% time you make money.
6. Usually HG tells n=mkt direction
7. Do not trade during consildation time. It's easy to take your stop out. It's best to trade when the market direction is clear.
8. Option expire: Index options stop trading on Thursday morning. Friday is all stock option expired date.
1/31/2010 Sunday QJie Training Class
1. SPX 60 minutes chart on 1/31/2010
http://www.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/983a0573-b0f6-4d7e-896d-9c6dedd86c40
Expect to pull back to 1060 area. Then bounce back to 1080-1100 since we do have RSI positive divergence.
If the market can not pass 1100, the next wave down to 960.
If the market can go above 1200, the wave count can be changed.
2. http://www.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/7af11fba-c4f7-4163-b517-fd155e2fed24
3. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aa6oc6Wz9Ftg
India purchased the gold at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce, according to an IMF official on a conference call.
4. FX market leads the future. Future leads the cash.
Watch out EUR:USD and USDF:JPY
5. Charles Nenner is buying GC, NG http://charlesnenner.com/
6. Rumor: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35129399/
Yuan appreciate 5%. GS predicted 5%
http://www.wisdomtree.com/library/pdf/fundfacts/WisdomTree-FactSheet-CYB-518.pdf
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYB&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p13822108752&listNum=14&a=190293978
The other Chinese Yuan ETF is an ETN or exchange traded note, and it is the Market Vectors Renminbi/USD ETN sponsored by VanEck Global and is part of the Market Vectors family of ETFs and ETNs. The ETN is issued by Morgan Stanley. It trades on the NYSE Arca exchange under symbol CNY.
http://www.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/983a0573-b0f6-4d7e-896d-9c6dedd86c40
Expect to pull back to 1060 area. Then bounce back to 1080-1100 since we do have RSI positive divergence.
If the market can not pass 1100, the next wave down to 960.
If the market can go above 1200, the wave count can be changed.
2. http://www.screencast.com/users/QQQyan/folders/Jing/media/7af11fba-c4f7-4163-b517-fd155e2fed24
3. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aa6oc6Wz9Ftg
India purchased the gold at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce, according to an IMF official on a conference call.
4. FX market leads the future. Future leads the cash.
Watch out EUR:USD and USDF:JPY
5. Charles Nenner is buying GC, NG http://charlesnenner.com/
6. Rumor: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35129399/
Yuan appreciate 5%. GS predicted 5%
http://www.wisdomtree.com/library/pdf/fundfacts/WisdomTree-FactSheet-CYB-518.pdf
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYB&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p13822108752&listNum=14&a=190293978
The other Chinese Yuan ETF is an ETN or exchange traded note, and it is the Market Vectors Renminbi/USD ETN sponsored by VanEck Global and is part of the Market Vectors family of ETFs and ETNs. The ETN is issued by Morgan Stanley. It trades on the NYSE Arca exchange under symbol CNY.
2010年1月24日星期日
Chinese Agriculture will be a good play in 2010
Jan.24th.2010
Watch: SEED, GRO, FEED, YONG
After a severe winter, focus on AG stocks, here is China news on Gov support 7000,000,000,000 Yuan funding for AG sector to recover.finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20100122/22147296168.shtml
Stocks like YONG is very close to its secondary offering price of 7.50, so if 7.50 holds, it its could be a buying point. YONG: liquid and powder nutrient compounds for plant and animal feed used in the agriculture industry. so keep eyes on it too.
Also LIWA, is a copper alternative stock, with mining tax on metal increase world wide, China will look for internal resource for base metals.I am looking for other Chinese Agriculture and base material stocks (not coal and solar) trading in U.S. Those might be good growth stocks for 2010, we should keep eyes on them.
Watch: SEED, GRO, FEED, YONG
After a severe winter, focus on AG stocks, here is China news on Gov support 7000,000,000,000 Yuan funding for AG sector to recover.finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20100122/22147296168.shtml
Stocks like YONG is very close to its secondary offering price of 7.50, so if 7.50 holds, it its could be a buying point. YONG: liquid and powder nutrient compounds for plant and animal feed used in the agriculture industry. so keep eyes on it too.
Also LIWA, is a copper alternative stock, with mining tax on metal increase world wide, China will look for internal resource for base metals.I am looking for other Chinese Agriculture and base material stocks (not coal and solar) trading in U.S. Those might be good growth stocks for 2010, we should keep eyes on them.
Important Day Jan.25th.2010
1. SPX weekly chart is going to down trend. I have to get the chance to exit all my long positions without win. SPX 1050 is very important support. Once broken, I need get all the cash on the hand instead of the stock.
2. SPX daily chart is in down trend too. Once broken 1090/1080 support, it's going to fall down sharply without support.
3. SPX 60 minutes chart shows this is bearish count, if mkt bounce pass above 1120, then it will be counted differently.
1090 bounce to 1100, then fall back to 1060, then bounce to 1100/1200. If it can not pass 1120, it will drop to 960 area.
3. USD daily is going up.
4. USO daily is going down.
5. Watch out VIX and VXX chart to decide if it's still in bull market or bear market.
If VIX and VXX does not fall down, it means it's bear market. Then you can buy VXX around 30.
Trade suggestion: Go Long at Monday’s open using SPX 1082 as your stop loss and SPX 1109 as your target. Sell before Tuesday’s close.
LONG TERM: bear market
2. SPX daily chart is in down trend too. Once broken 1090/1080 support, it's going to fall down sharply without support.
3. SPX 60 minutes chart shows this is bearish count, if mkt bounce pass above 1120, then it will be counted differently.
1090 bounce to 1100, then fall back to 1060, then bounce to 1100/1200. If it can not pass 1120, it will drop to 960 area.
3. USD daily is going up.
4. USO daily is going down.
5. Watch out VIX and VXX chart to decide if it's still in bull market or bear market.
If VIX and VXX does not fall down, it means it's bear market. Then you can buy VXX around 30.
Trade suggestion: Go Long at Monday’s open using SPX 1082 as your stop loss and SPX 1109 as your target. Sell before Tuesday’s close.
LONG TERM: bear market
2010年1月10日星期日
How To Trade Breakouts
=========================================
7 COMMON BREAKOUT PATTERNS.
Check your favorites stocks whether they have the following patterns:ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/?p=818
If you’ve been following me for the past 6 weeks, you know that I have called breakouts almost immediately before they do so. I was asked by dozens and dozens of people to provide some sort of educational post on what I lookout for. The primary patterns that make it on my imminent, potential, and waiting lists are as follows: 1) parabolic breakout+symmetrical triangle, 2) bull flag, 3) ascending triangle, 4) failed descending triangle, 5) rounded bottom, 6) flat base, 7) measured move.
Each pattern must utilize price action, volume, moving averages (15, 20, 50, 100, 200-day), and the development of the pattern itself. The entry point is marked when everything “lines up perfectly”.
1) Parabolic breakout+symmetrical triangle:
These patterns are the intra-day spikes that I covet dearly. They are responsible for many of the fastest and largest gains that I have ever achieved. This pattern utilizes 2 or more continuation or consolidation patterns to complete itself. They are usually flat bases, flags, and a variety of triangles. When the pattern goes parabolic intra-day, there will usually be massive profit taking and the entire move could retrace as much as 50%. Most weakhands would sell in panic when this occurs. However, this is wrong.
After a large move, the pattern needs to consolidate it’s gains, shake out the weak holders, attract the dip buyers, and gather accumulation and interest for the next run up. Towards the end of the consolidating period, there will be another breakout, which marks a secondary entry to add another position.
Volume must be flat and declining prior to the spike, which will be accompanied by huge volume. In addition, the moving averages listed above will help guide you to time your entry. My favorite short-term averages are the 15- and 20-day MA’s. 50- and 100-day MA’s are intermediate averages, and the 200-day MA is the big daddy himself - the most important long-term MA.
Whenever you see a symmetrical triangle form after the initial spike, it is almost a guarantee that the particular stock will breakout again. Failures are rare, but they do happen.The point is to harvest as many of these patterns and cut losses on any of the failures.
2) Bull Flag:
Bull flags are usually very small and can last for only one day or several weeks. The way to tell the entry is by using the appropriate moving averages. Sometimes, I like to enter a flag regardless for fear that I may miss the breakout. However, the closer the pattern is to the 15- or 20-day, the faster the breakout will materialize.
3) Ascending Triangle:
The ascending triangle is one of the most obvious bullish patterns, and one that is highly reliable. Each trough is marked by selling exhaustion while the buyers hold their ground. You want to either get in on the breakout from the pattern or if you are more tolerant to risk, then enter within the pattern and just sit tight. Do not get shaken out.
4) Failed Descending Triangle:
Sometimes, when a pattern fails, it can be a good thing. A pattern failure will force holders on one side of a trade to immediately reconsider. A descending triangle is a bearish pattern but occasionally, it will fail. This will force short covering and a great time to add longs at the same time. I like to get in on the breakout on confirmation.
5) Rounded Bottom:
This pattern takes months, even years, to develop. The pattern is created by a downtrend, followed by a sideways neutral range. When the right side of this “saucer” develops, it will be obvious that the stock/market wants to go up. There should be a massive increase in volume on the breakouts following the final completing of the right side of the pattern. Shorts will cover their positions as they realize that they can no longer profit from the stock.
When the multi-month base is forming, the main moving averages should catch up to the stock. They should level off and start heading higher and support the stock as a “launching pad” for continuous breakouts.
6) Flat Base:
A flat base is basically an over extended flag trading in a neutral range on low volume. These patterns have one of the most powerful breakouts, ever. A stock can easily double in a matter of days/weeks. There should be no evidence of breakdown in this pattern and they should be entered immediately when you first find them. When the breakout occurs, it its highly likely that you never see pre-breakout prices for a long time.
7) Measured Move:
The measured move pattern is one of the most beautiful and predictable patterns. They easily launch from their supporting moving average. The best part is that several moving averages should provide support below the stock. They act as back up in case there is a failure.There should be decreasing volume during consolidation, followed by large volume breakouts.
I hope this helps.
-------------------------------------------------------------breakpointtrades.com/watch_rules.htm
Some basic rules:
1. Volume is crucial. When looking at a chart for a good entry, the key to successful trading is an increase in volume. Chart breaks without volume have a much lower probability of success.
2. Only trade breakouts with an excellent volume % relative to their 60-day volume average. Some programs like Medved Quote Tracker will provide this information for you. The 60-day moving average can also be found on Yahoo Finance under detailed quotes. Trading breakouts with big volume % will greatly enhance your probability of a successful trade. This is especially true when day trading or swing trading. (Please note: Increased volume is not as important when shorting a stock.)
Here is a simple formula you can use to determine the volume % at any point during a trading day:[Total volume / hours into the trading day] multiplied by 6.5 (trading hours in a day)
Here's an Example: Stock ABC has a breakpoint of $10.25 with a 60-day average volume of 500,000 shares. At 11:30AM, stock ABC breaks the $10.25 price resistance (breakpoint) with a volume of 100,000 shares. Does this breakout possess a high probability of success? The answer is NO. Even though ABC has broken out above the 10.25 resistance level, using the formula above, the adjusted volume of 325,000 shares does not meet or exceed the 60-day average volume.100,000 / 2 = 50,00050,000 x (6.5) = 325,0003. It is a good idea to avoid entering new positions in the first 15 minutes after the market open.
4. Avoid holding a position into earnings as this can result in a major loss. A Positive earnings surprise can result in a significant gain, but the potential reward usually does not merit the risk.
5. Do not overweight your trading resources in one position.
6. Do not enter a position early. Wait for a pattern to setup, make sure it has above average volume, then only enter only after the price has traded through the breakout price.
7. It's a good habit to sell 1/2 your trading position on an initial move above resistance and reset stops at entry to ensure a profitable trade. Use mental stops to avoid large losses.
8. Avoid averaging down if a position goes against you. Maintain proper mental stops. If the stock moves back up, you can always reenter.
9. Keep your emotions even. Do not become exuberant when trades go well and do not become depressed when trades do not work. Maintaining an even temperament in the short term will enable you to trade for the long term.
7 COMMON BREAKOUT PATTERNS.
Check your favorites stocks whether they have the following patterns:ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/?p=818
If you’ve been following me for the past 6 weeks, you know that I have called breakouts almost immediately before they do so. I was asked by dozens and dozens of people to provide some sort of educational post on what I lookout for. The primary patterns that make it on my imminent, potential, and waiting lists are as follows: 1) parabolic breakout+symmetrical triangle, 2) bull flag, 3) ascending triangle, 4) failed descending triangle, 5) rounded bottom, 6) flat base, 7) measured move.
Each pattern must utilize price action, volume, moving averages (15, 20, 50, 100, 200-day), and the development of the pattern itself. The entry point is marked when everything “lines up perfectly”.
1) Parabolic breakout+symmetrical triangle:
These patterns are the intra-day spikes that I covet dearly. They are responsible for many of the fastest and largest gains that I have ever achieved. This pattern utilizes 2 or more continuation or consolidation patterns to complete itself. They are usually flat bases, flags, and a variety of triangles. When the pattern goes parabolic intra-day, there will usually be massive profit taking and the entire move could retrace as much as 50%. Most weakhands would sell in panic when this occurs. However, this is wrong.
After a large move, the pattern needs to consolidate it’s gains, shake out the weak holders, attract the dip buyers, and gather accumulation and interest for the next run up. Towards the end of the consolidating period, there will be another breakout, which marks a secondary entry to add another position.
Volume must be flat and declining prior to the spike, which will be accompanied by huge volume. In addition, the moving averages listed above will help guide you to time your entry. My favorite short-term averages are the 15- and 20-day MA’s. 50- and 100-day MA’s are intermediate averages, and the 200-day MA is the big daddy himself - the most important long-term MA.
Whenever you see a symmetrical triangle form after the initial spike, it is almost a guarantee that the particular stock will breakout again. Failures are rare, but they do happen.The point is to harvest as many of these patterns and cut losses on any of the failures.
2) Bull Flag:
Bull flags are usually very small and can last for only one day or several weeks. The way to tell the entry is by using the appropriate moving averages. Sometimes, I like to enter a flag regardless for fear that I may miss the breakout. However, the closer the pattern is to the 15- or 20-day, the faster the breakout will materialize.
3) Ascending Triangle:
The ascending triangle is one of the most obvious bullish patterns, and one that is highly reliable. Each trough is marked by selling exhaustion while the buyers hold their ground. You want to either get in on the breakout from the pattern or if you are more tolerant to risk, then enter within the pattern and just sit tight. Do not get shaken out.
4) Failed Descending Triangle:
Sometimes, when a pattern fails, it can be a good thing. A pattern failure will force holders on one side of a trade to immediately reconsider. A descending triangle is a bearish pattern but occasionally, it will fail. This will force short covering and a great time to add longs at the same time. I like to get in on the breakout on confirmation.
5) Rounded Bottom:
This pattern takes months, even years, to develop. The pattern is created by a downtrend, followed by a sideways neutral range. When the right side of this “saucer” develops, it will be obvious that the stock/market wants to go up. There should be a massive increase in volume on the breakouts following the final completing of the right side of the pattern. Shorts will cover their positions as they realize that they can no longer profit from the stock.
When the multi-month base is forming, the main moving averages should catch up to the stock. They should level off and start heading higher and support the stock as a “launching pad” for continuous breakouts.
6) Flat Base:
A flat base is basically an over extended flag trading in a neutral range on low volume. These patterns have one of the most powerful breakouts, ever. A stock can easily double in a matter of days/weeks. There should be no evidence of breakdown in this pattern and they should be entered immediately when you first find them. When the breakout occurs, it its highly likely that you never see pre-breakout prices for a long time.
7) Measured Move:
The measured move pattern is one of the most beautiful and predictable patterns. They easily launch from their supporting moving average. The best part is that several moving averages should provide support below the stock. They act as back up in case there is a failure.There should be decreasing volume during consolidation, followed by large volume breakouts.
I hope this helps.
-------------------------------------------------------------breakpointtrades.com/watch_rules.htm
Some basic rules:
1. Volume is crucial. When looking at a chart for a good entry, the key to successful trading is an increase in volume. Chart breaks without volume have a much lower probability of success.
2. Only trade breakouts with an excellent volume % relative to their 60-day volume average. Some programs like Medved Quote Tracker will provide this information for you. The 60-day moving average can also be found on Yahoo Finance under detailed quotes. Trading breakouts with big volume % will greatly enhance your probability of a successful trade. This is especially true when day trading or swing trading. (Please note: Increased volume is not as important when shorting a stock.)
Here is a simple formula you can use to determine the volume % at any point during a trading day:[Total volume / hours into the trading day] multiplied by 6.5 (trading hours in a day)
Here's an Example: Stock ABC has a breakpoint of $10.25 with a 60-day average volume of 500,000 shares. At 11:30AM, stock ABC breaks the $10.25 price resistance (breakpoint) with a volume of 100,000 shares. Does this breakout possess a high probability of success? The answer is NO. Even though ABC has broken out above the 10.25 resistance level, using the formula above, the adjusted volume of 325,000 shares does not meet or exceed the 60-day average volume.100,000 / 2 = 50,00050,000 x (6.5) = 325,0003. It is a good idea to avoid entering new positions in the first 15 minutes after the market open.
4. Avoid holding a position into earnings as this can result in a major loss. A Positive earnings surprise can result in a significant gain, but the potential reward usually does not merit the risk.
5. Do not overweight your trading resources in one position.
6. Do not enter a position early. Wait for a pattern to setup, make sure it has above average volume, then only enter only after the price has traded through the breakout price.
7. It's a good habit to sell 1/2 your trading position on an initial move above resistance and reset stops at entry to ensure a profitable trade. Use mental stops to avoid large losses.
8. Avoid averaging down if a position goes against you. Maintain proper mental stops. If the stock moves back up, you can always reenter.
9. Keep your emotions even. Do not become exuberant when trades go well and do not become depressed when trades do not work. Maintaining an even temperament in the short term will enable you to trade for the long term.
2010年1月6日星期三
Stock Sites
Calendars & Events
Barron’s Econoday
Barron’s Market Lab
Economic Reports
Futures Calendar
International Economic Reports
MoneyCental Conferences
NASDAQ Holiday Schedule
NYSE Holiday Schedule
Options Clearing Expiration
Stock Splits
Yahoo Bond Center
Chart Sites
AOL Money & Finance
Bar Chart
Big Charts
Click Charts
Prophet Interactive
StockCharts
Yahoo! Finance
Economic Analysis
BAC Economic/Financial Reports
Bank of Montreal
Bank Rate
Bloomberg Economy
BRIDGE News/CBOT
BusinessWeek Mkt Update
CNN-fn Economy
FDIC Regional Outlook
First Union Bank Economic
InterbankFX
MarketWatch Economics
Reuters Economics
USA Today Economic Track
Government, Economic, Regulatory
ADP Employment
AMEX
Auto Sales
Average Hourly Earnings
Beige Book
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Business Inventories
Case-Schiller Home Price Index
CBOT
Chicago Purchasing Manager
CME
Commercial RE - Vacancy Rates
Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
Construction Outlays
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Credit
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
EconoMagic
Economic Development Admin
Economic Indicators
Economic Research Service
Economy.com
EconStats
Employment Cost Index
Employment Situation Report
Energy Information Admin (EIA)
Factory Orders
FDIC
Fed Funds Futures
Federal Reserve - Atlanta
Federal Reserve - Boston
Federal Reserve - Chicago
Federal Reserve - Cleveland
Federal Reserve - Dallas
Federal Reserve - Kansas City
Federal Reserve - Minneapolis
Federal Reserve - New York
Federal Reserve - Philadelphia
Federal Reserve - Richmond
Federal Reserve - San Francisco
Federal Reserve - St. Louis
Financial Trend Forecaster
FINRA
FOMC Meeting Statements
FOMC Minutes
Free Lunch
Global Insight
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Haver
Housing Starts & Permits
Import/Export Prices
Industrial Production/Capacity
Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Int’l Trade - Goods & Services
Int’l Trade - Quarterly Transactions
IRS Statistics of Income
MBA Mortgage Applications
Monetary Policy Report
Monster Employment
NAHB Housing Market Index
NAR Existing Home Sales
NAR Housing Affordability Index
NAR Pending Home Sales
NASDAQ
Nat’l Agricultural Statistics
Nat’l Assoc. of Business Economics
NBER
New Residential Home Sales
NYSE
Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS)
OFHEO House Price Index
Personal Income
Petroleum Status Report
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Productivity - Labor/Unit Costs
Retail Sales - Advance
SEC
STAT-USA
The Conference Board
The Federal Reserve Board
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
U.S. Dept. of Labor
U.S. Treasury
U.S. Treasury Budget Statement
Unemployment Claims
Wholesale Trade
Hedge Fund Letters
Amaranth
Archeus
Bayou 1
Bayou 2
Bayou 3
Bear Sterns
Cerberus
Hayman
Insana
Ospraie
Sowood
Tontine
TPG
Various Quant Funds
Hedge Fund sites
Albourne Village
Alexa HF Sites
Alpha Magazine
Dealbook
DJHF Index LT Performance
FINalternatives
Hedge Fund Planet
Hedge Media
HedgeCo
Hennessee Group Research
HF Alert
HF Consistency Index
HF Formation
HF Implode-O-Meter
HF Journal
HF Lounge
HF Manager
HF Manager Week
HF Planet
HF Pro World
II Alternatives
Lipper HedgeWorld
MAR Hedge
Tiburon Advisors Research
Industries
Bank Implode-O-Meter
Briefing Sector Ratings
Builder Implode-O-Meter
Industry News
Reuters Industry Focus
Yahoo Industry Center
Major Financial Outlets
Barron’s
Bloomberg
BusinessWeek
CNBC
CNN Money
Financial Times
Forbes
Fortune
Google Finance
IBD
Kiplinger’s
MarketWatch
Minyanville
Reuters
Seeking Alpha
Smart Money
The Dismal Scientist
The Stock Advisors
TheStreet.com
Trading Markets
Wall Street Journal
Women’s Wall Street
Worth
Y! Finance
Y! Finance Screener
Market & Technical Indicators
AMG Fund Flows
Barron’s Confidence
Barron’s Sentiment
Bull & Bear Wise
CBOE Put/Call Ratio
Commitment of Traders (COT)
Conference Board
Economy.com Consumer Flow
I-Tools Public Short Sales
ICI.org
II Bull/Bear Ratio
Index Indicators - VIX
ISE Index
LowRisk.com Investor Sentiment
Market Gauge
Market Harmonics
MarketWatch Community
Monster Employment
Most Popular Stocks
NAAIM Managers Sentiment
NASDAQ Short Interest
Option Buyers Sentiment
Predict Wall Street
SentimenTrader Cash %/Assets
SentimenTrader Margin (NYSE)
SentimenTrader Odd-Lot Buys
SentimenTrader Odd-lot Shorts
Shaeffers Put/Call Open Interest
StateStreet Investor Sentiment
TI - 200-day MA Winners
TI - 50-day MA Winners
TI - 50/200-day MA Crossover
TI - Highest Volume
TI - Linear Trend
TI - Most Volatile
TI - Near Bollinger Bands
Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment
TrendMacro Fed Funds Forecast
UBS Investor Sentiment
Univ. of Michigan Sentiment
Market News of All Sorts
AI News
Barron’s Roundup
BigCharts Intraday Movers
Bloomberg Asia
Bloomberg Economic News
Bloomberg Emerging Markets
Bloomberg Europe
Bloomberg Latin America
Bloomberg Middle East
Briefing Bond Market
Circuit Breaker Update
CNBC Fast Money
CNBC Mad Money
CNN Money AM Market Call
Dealbreaker
EIA Energy Data
Futures Source
FX Street Global
IBD Analysis
IBD Breaking News
In Play
IPO Offerings
Largest 1-day Gain/Loss
Largest Insider Trades (30-days)
Lockup Expiration
MarketWatch After-hours
MarketWatch Intraday
MarketWatch Pre-Market
Most Recent Insider Trades
NASDAQ Pre-Market Indicator
Online Investor - Buybacks
Sector Concentrations (Insiders)
Trade Halts (NASDAQ)
Trader Daily
Trading Markets - News
WSJ Economic Data Preview
Y! Short Stories
MarketClub Videos
5 Trending Mkts (02-24-09)
Crude Move Over? (3-31-09)
Crude Oil Analysis (3-10-09)
New Charts FAQ (3-24-09)
New MarketClub Charts (3-23-09)
S&P 500 Move Over?
Signals in Charts (2-26-09)
SPX & Oil Charts (3-19-09)
Past Educational Blog Posts
High-Reliability Reversal Signals
How to Trade Breakouts & Breakdowns
How to Trade Power Spikes
Investors/Traders Guide to Bear Markets
Subprime Primer
The Art of Contrarian Investing
Understanding Analyst Reports, Ratings, & Target Prices
Sectors & ETFs
ETF Daily Performance
ETF Investment Outlook
Prophet Sector Rankings
Select SPDRs
WSJ Sector Earnings Growth
WSJ Sector Rankings
Yahoo ETF Center
Stock Screens & Scanners
BarCharts Bottom 100
BarCharts Top 1% Direction
BarCharts Top 1% Strength
BarCharts Top 100
Implied Volatility
Market Gauge/Dataview
Market Screen
MarketWatch Screener
MSN MoneyCentral Lists
Quote.com
StockCharts.com Stock Scan
StockTA Screener
Trade Ideas - Most Volatile
Trending123 Sector Scan
What’s Hot?
What’s Not?
WSJ MF - Strength
WSJ MF - Weakness
Technical Analysis Games
Chart Game
InspectD
Trader's Resources
Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Bloomberg Pre-market Futures
CNBC Earnings
CNBC Pre-Market
Conference Calls
DayTradeTeam
Earnings Surprises
Earnings.com
Exchange Volume Comparison
Fidelity Backtesting
Finviz Heat Map
INO Extreme Stocks
INO Real-time Forex
INO Real-time Futures
Insider Buying
Int’l Market Performance
Interest Rates & Bond Yields
Investors Live
Kitco - Precious Metals
Market Summary
MarketGauge Hot Spots
Microcap OTC BB
Minerals Management Service
Morningstar Performance
NASDAQ Adv-Dec Issues
NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator
NASDAQ New Highs-New Lows
National Hurricane Center
NYMEX
NYSE Adv-Dec Issues
NYSE Adv-Dec Volume
NYSE McClellan Oscillator
NYSE New Highs-New Lows
NYSE TICK
NYSE TRIN
Oil Price Forecast
Self-Investors
StockCharts Market Carpet
StockCharts Market Performance
Unusual Volume (NASDAQ)
Unusual Volume (NYSE)
VIX Index
WealthMiser
Whisper Number
WSJ Data Center
WSJ Key Day Reversals
WSJ MA Crossovers
Yahoo ETF Center
Yahoo Sector Performance
Trader's Whiteboard Videos
#1 - Trend Lines & Chart Patterns
#2 - Chart Set-ups
#3 - Three Most Important Things
#4 - Using Stops
#5 - Trading Plan
#6 - F.T.P.
#7 - Profit Patterns
#8 - Trading in Every Market
U.S. & Global News
Alert Net (Reuters)
Brazil Post
Broadcast Live
China Daily
CNN
Daily Telegraph UK
eTaiwan News
Forbes Video
Fox News
France Daily
Gateway 2 Russia
German Times
Google News
Headline Map
Hong Kong Daily
Int’l Herald Tribune
Interfax (Central Europe)
Italia Daily
Japan Times
Korea Herald
Kurdish Media
Middle East Daily
MSN Video News
MSNBC
News Is Free Global
Political Wire
PRess Display
Reuters TV
Straits Times (Singapore)
Sydney Morning
The Toronto Star
Times of India
Topix.net
USA Today
USA Today Video
World Net Daily
World Newspapers
WWiTV
Y! News
Note:
1. Check Insider buying:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?symbol=CBAK&symbol=FEED&selected=CBAK
Barron’s Econoday
Barron’s Market Lab
Economic Reports
Futures Calendar
International Economic Reports
MoneyCental Conferences
NASDAQ Holiday Schedule
NYSE Holiday Schedule
Options Clearing Expiration
Stock Splits
Yahoo Bond Center
Chart Sites
AOL Money & Finance
Bar Chart
Big Charts
Click Charts
Prophet Interactive
StockCharts
Yahoo! Finance
Economic Analysis
BAC Economic/Financial Reports
Bank of Montreal
Bank Rate
Bloomberg Economy
BRIDGE News/CBOT
BusinessWeek Mkt Update
CNN-fn Economy
FDIC Regional Outlook
First Union Bank Economic
InterbankFX
MarketWatch Economics
Reuters Economics
USA Today Economic Track
Government, Economic, Regulatory
ADP Employment
AMEX
Auto Sales
Average Hourly Earnings
Beige Book
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Business Inventories
Case-Schiller Home Price Index
CBOT
Chicago Purchasing Manager
CME
Commercial RE - Vacancy Rates
Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
Construction Outlays
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Credit
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
EconoMagic
Economic Development Admin
Economic Indicators
Economic Research Service
Economy.com
EconStats
Employment Cost Index
Employment Situation Report
Energy Information Admin (EIA)
Factory Orders
FDIC
Fed Funds Futures
Federal Reserve - Atlanta
Federal Reserve - Boston
Federal Reserve - Chicago
Federal Reserve - Cleveland
Federal Reserve - Dallas
Federal Reserve - Kansas City
Federal Reserve - Minneapolis
Federal Reserve - New York
Federal Reserve - Philadelphia
Federal Reserve - Richmond
Federal Reserve - San Francisco
Federal Reserve - St. Louis
Financial Trend Forecaster
FINRA
FOMC Meeting Statements
FOMC Minutes
Free Lunch
Global Insight
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Haver
Housing Starts & Permits
Import/Export Prices
Industrial Production/Capacity
Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Int’l Trade - Goods & Services
Int’l Trade - Quarterly Transactions
IRS Statistics of Income
MBA Mortgage Applications
Monetary Policy Report
Monster Employment
NAHB Housing Market Index
NAR Existing Home Sales
NAR Housing Affordability Index
NAR Pending Home Sales
NASDAQ
Nat’l Agricultural Statistics
Nat’l Assoc. of Business Economics
NBER
New Residential Home Sales
NYSE
Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS)
OFHEO House Price Index
Personal Income
Petroleum Status Report
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Productivity - Labor/Unit Costs
Retail Sales - Advance
SEC
STAT-USA
The Conference Board
The Federal Reserve Board
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
U.S. Dept. of Labor
U.S. Treasury
U.S. Treasury Budget Statement
Unemployment Claims
Wholesale Trade
Hedge Fund Letters
Amaranth
Archeus
Bayou 1
Bayou 2
Bayou 3
Bear Sterns
Cerberus
Hayman
Insana
Ospraie
Sowood
Tontine
TPG
Various Quant Funds
Hedge Fund sites
Albourne Village
Alexa HF Sites
Alpha Magazine
Dealbook
DJHF Index LT Performance
FINalternatives
Hedge Fund Planet
Hedge Media
HedgeCo
Hennessee Group Research
HF Alert
HF Consistency Index
HF Formation
HF Implode-O-Meter
HF Journal
HF Lounge
HF Manager
HF Manager Week
HF Planet
HF Pro World
II Alternatives
Lipper HedgeWorld
MAR Hedge
Tiburon Advisors Research
Industries
Bank Implode-O-Meter
Briefing Sector Ratings
Builder Implode-O-Meter
Industry News
Reuters Industry Focus
Yahoo Industry Center
Major Financial Outlets
Barron’s
Bloomberg
BusinessWeek
CNBC
CNN Money
Financial Times
Forbes
Fortune
Google Finance
IBD
Kiplinger’s
MarketWatch
Minyanville
Reuters
Seeking Alpha
Smart Money
The Dismal Scientist
The Stock Advisors
TheStreet.com
Trading Markets
Wall Street Journal
Women’s Wall Street
Worth
Y! Finance
Y! Finance Screener
Market & Technical Indicators
AMG Fund Flows
Barron’s Confidence
Barron’s Sentiment
Bull & Bear Wise
CBOE Put/Call Ratio
Commitment of Traders (COT)
Conference Board
Economy.com Consumer Flow
I-Tools Public Short Sales
ICI.org
II Bull/Bear Ratio
Index Indicators - VIX
ISE Index
LowRisk.com Investor Sentiment
Market Gauge
Market Harmonics
MarketWatch Community
Monster Employment
Most Popular Stocks
NAAIM Managers Sentiment
NASDAQ Short Interest
Option Buyers Sentiment
Predict Wall Street
SentimenTrader Cash %/Assets
SentimenTrader Margin (NYSE)
SentimenTrader Odd-Lot Buys
SentimenTrader Odd-lot Shorts
Shaeffers Put/Call Open Interest
StateStreet Investor Sentiment
TI - 200-day MA Winners
TI - 50-day MA Winners
TI - 50/200-day MA Crossover
TI - Highest Volume
TI - Linear Trend
TI - Most Volatile
TI - Near Bollinger Bands
Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment
TrendMacro Fed Funds Forecast
UBS Investor Sentiment
Univ. of Michigan Sentiment
Market News of All Sorts
AI News
Barron’s Roundup
BigCharts Intraday Movers
Bloomberg Asia
Bloomberg Economic News
Bloomberg Emerging Markets
Bloomberg Europe
Bloomberg Latin America
Bloomberg Middle East
Briefing Bond Market
Circuit Breaker Update
CNBC Fast Money
CNBC Mad Money
CNN Money AM Market Call
Dealbreaker
EIA Energy Data
Futures Source
FX Street Global
IBD Analysis
IBD Breaking News
In Play
IPO Offerings
Largest 1-day Gain/Loss
Largest Insider Trades (30-days)
Lockup Expiration
MarketWatch After-hours
MarketWatch Intraday
MarketWatch Pre-Market
Most Recent Insider Trades
NASDAQ Pre-Market Indicator
Online Investor - Buybacks
Sector Concentrations (Insiders)
Trade Halts (NASDAQ)
Trader Daily
Trading Markets - News
WSJ Economic Data Preview
Y! Short Stories
MarketClub Videos
5 Trending Mkts (02-24-09)
Crude Move Over? (3-31-09)
Crude Oil Analysis (3-10-09)
New Charts FAQ (3-24-09)
New MarketClub Charts (3-23-09)
S&P 500 Move Over?
Signals in Charts (2-26-09)
SPX & Oil Charts (3-19-09)
Past Educational Blog Posts
High-Reliability Reversal Signals
How to Trade Breakouts & Breakdowns
How to Trade Power Spikes
Investors/Traders Guide to Bear Markets
Subprime Primer
The Art of Contrarian Investing
Understanding Analyst Reports, Ratings, & Target Prices
Sectors & ETFs
ETF Daily Performance
ETF Investment Outlook
Prophet Sector Rankings
Select SPDRs
WSJ Sector Earnings Growth
WSJ Sector Rankings
Yahoo ETF Center
Stock Screens & Scanners
BarCharts Bottom 100
BarCharts Top 1% Direction
BarCharts Top 1% Strength
BarCharts Top 100
Implied Volatility
Market Gauge/Dataview
Market Screen
MarketWatch Screener
MSN MoneyCentral Lists
Quote.com
StockCharts.com Stock Scan
StockTA Screener
Trade Ideas - Most Volatile
Trending123 Sector Scan
What’s Hot?
What’s Not?
WSJ MF - Strength
WSJ MF - Weakness
Technical Analysis Games
Chart Game
InspectD
Trader's Resources
Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Bloomberg Pre-market Futures
CNBC Earnings
CNBC Pre-Market
Conference Calls
DayTradeTeam
Earnings Surprises
Earnings.com
Exchange Volume Comparison
Fidelity Backtesting
Finviz Heat Map
INO Extreme Stocks
INO Real-time Forex
INO Real-time Futures
Insider Buying
Int’l Market Performance
Interest Rates & Bond Yields
Investors Live
Kitco - Precious Metals
Market Summary
MarketGauge Hot Spots
Microcap OTC BB
Minerals Management Service
Morningstar Performance
NASDAQ Adv-Dec Issues
NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator
NASDAQ New Highs-New Lows
National Hurricane Center
NYMEX
NYSE Adv-Dec Issues
NYSE Adv-Dec Volume
NYSE McClellan Oscillator
NYSE New Highs-New Lows
NYSE TICK
NYSE TRIN
Oil Price Forecast
Self-Investors
StockCharts Market Carpet
StockCharts Market Performance
Unusual Volume (NASDAQ)
Unusual Volume (NYSE)
VIX Index
WealthMiser
Whisper Number
WSJ Data Center
WSJ Key Day Reversals
WSJ MA Crossovers
Yahoo ETF Center
Yahoo Sector Performance
Trader's Whiteboard Videos
#1 - Trend Lines & Chart Patterns
#2 - Chart Set-ups
#3 - Three Most Important Things
#4 - Using Stops
#5 - Trading Plan
#6 - F.T.P.
#7 - Profit Patterns
#8 - Trading in Every Market
U.S. & Global News
Alert Net (Reuters)
Brazil Post
Broadcast Live
China Daily
CNN
Daily Telegraph UK
eTaiwan News
Forbes Video
Fox News
France Daily
Gateway 2 Russia
German Times
Google News
Headline Map
Hong Kong Daily
Int’l Herald Tribune
Interfax (Central Europe)
Italia Daily
Japan Times
Korea Herald
Kurdish Media
Middle East Daily
MSN Video News
MSNBC
News Is Free Global
Political Wire
PRess Display
Reuters TV
Straits Times (Singapore)
Sydney Morning
The Toronto Star
Times of India
Topix.net
USA Today
USA Today Video
World Net Daily
World Newspapers
WWiTV
Y! News
Note:
1. Check Insider buying:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?symbol=CBAK&symbol=FEED&selected=CBAK
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